Belmont Stakes Preview: Soul to take the Gold in the Belmont

Graeme thinks Golden Soul is the value at Belmont

Graeme North brings you his take on the third leg of the American Triple Crown...

The concluding leg of the Triple Crown in America, the Belmont Stakes, takes place at Belmont Park (off 18:36 local time, 23:56 BST) this Saturday. The Belmont Stakes has a fascinating past and has been part of some defining moments in American thoroughbred history. It has been run at four different tracks; over five different distances; as a handicap; and bizarrely both left handed and right handed. It was the race in which Secretariat established the world record time for a mile and a half; in which Julie Krone became the first female rider to win a Triple Crown race; before which the first post parade took place; and attracted the largest attendance in New York racing history.

It's difficult to envisage the Belmont stands being packed to the same extent this time around for what looks an ordinary renewal, not least with wet weather forecast and a sloppy track likely..  
   
Understandably, the 3-1 Morning Line favourite is Kentucky Derby winner Orb. He won an unexceptional Derby but his Timeform rating of 124 is still good enough to have won most recent Belmont Stakes, so he is legitimately the one to beat. He went into the Derby with virtually the best form and his victory on a sloppy track at Churchill came despite apparently covering (according to Trakus) more ground than all bar two of his rivals after being produced wide from well off an unsustainably strong pace. Orb was odds on to follow up in the Preakness at Pimlico but could only manage fourth behind Derby sixth Oxbow.

The Preakness was run on a much slower track than the Derby and it looked strongly as if the inner rail, against which Orb was drawn and raced for much of the trip unable to be pulled wide, was noticeably slower than the middle of the track to where the leaders headed in the straight. Orb is better judged on his Derby-winning performance and being out of a mare that won at a mile and a half (albeit on turf) stamina will the least of his worries. 

One might imagine Oxbow (122) to be second favourite but the fact he isn't suggests that there is a general reluctance to credit him with what he achieved at Pimlico, seemingly because of widespread misapprehension he got away with slow fractions in front. As we said in our Preakness preview when tipping him, Oxbow had run much better than his position suggests in the Derby, still being in contention for a place with a furlong to run at the point all the other pacesetters were tailing off. Oxbow had an uncontested lead in the Preakness for sure, but he didn't go slowly as my colleague Simon Rowlands illustrated in his blog analysing the sectionals. Interestingly, all three of Oxbow's victories have come from the front but he's also been caught wide and run well on a couple of occasions when it wouldn't have been expedient to go forward, so is tactically versatile. Oxbow threatens rather than is guaranteed to stay the trip.

Seven horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby but missed the Preakness run in the Belmont - Golden Soul (second, 120), Revolutionary (third, 119), Giant Finish (tenth, 105), Overanalyze (eleventh, 118), Palace Malice (twelfth, 114), Frac Daddy (sixteenth, 110) and Vyjack (eighteenth, 119).

Late closers Golden Soul and Revolutionary remain the most interesting of that bunch. Both seem certain to stay the trip based on running style and pedigree, with Revolutionary being out of a mare that won a G1 event over a mile and a quarter and Golden Soul out of daughter of the 1989 Prix de Diane winner Lady In Silver. It's difficult to envisage Palace Malice (who set a silly pace at Churchill in first-time blinkers which are left off here) being at his best at this trip or the others turning Churchill form around despite this longer trip. 

Freedom Child (118) and Unlimited Budget (115 but gets a 5lb sex allowance) are others worth a mention. Unlimited Budget bids to emulate Rags To Riches (from the same stable) back in 2007 but she came up short in the Kentucky Oaks and is all speed on her female side. Front-runner Freedom Child won the G2 Peter Pan here last time in the slop by thirteen lengths, so it's easy to see why he figures at 8-1 on the Morning Line, but he's another with stamina doubts on the female side of his pedigree and the Peter Pan was a weak affair.

Orb is once again the most likely winner but Golden Soul seems sure to relish the trip no less and the huge amount of ground he made up widest of all on Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby before unsurprisingly flattening out very late for fourth shouldn't be forgotten. His Derby run rather proved that point and he should really be nearer 5-1 than the Morning Line 10-1, so has to be the bet.    

Recommended bet 
Back Golden Soul at 10-1 or thereabouts in the Belmont Stakes

Visit timeform.com to get a FREE race card for the Belmont Stakes!