Ascot Gold Cup: Take an educated guess on Estimate

Punters latching onto the Royal connection could see Estimate's price shorten

Tony McFadden previews the Gold Cup at Ascot and has found one that he thinks is likely to start significantly shorter than her current price...

The Gold Cup is the feature race on the Thursday at Ascot, but it is by no means the only big betting event of the day; in fact, up and down the country plenty will have lost before the first thoroughbred has even set foot on the track if the information they received third-hand regarding the colour of the Queen's hat proved to be incorrect. 

There is a strange fascination with the Royal Family- the Queen in particular- as anyone unfortunate enough to have watched the BBC's coverage of the 2011 Derby will testify. Yes, Carlton House was a big-race favourite and clearly some of the attention should have been focused on the Queen's runner, but the amount of coverage he received, even post-race when he had been soundly beaten, was truly bizarre. 

The Queen looks set to be represented by Estimate in the Gold Cup and this time, rather than despairing, I will embrace the wall-to-wall Royal coverage; I will actively hope that Channel 4 take over the baton from the BBC and concentrate on Estimate to the exclusion of everything else. Why? Well, I have had an ante-post wager on Estimate and quite fancy trading out for a nice free bet, something I am pretty confident I will be able to do as the media inevitably latch onto the Royal angle. It is not just from a trading perspective that Estimate makes some appeal, though, she actually has very solid claims in what looks like a particularly open renewal.

The four-year-old filly Estimate has yet to race beyond two miles, but she certainly shapes as if she will relish this test, and, what's more, her half-sister Enzali won this contest in 1999. Last year's Queen's Vase may have been a substandard renewal, but it is difficult to argue with the style in which Estimate justified strong market support on just her third racecourse appearance, finishing strongly to pull five lengths clear of her toiling rivals. 

She was unable to further add to her tally last season, finishing third in the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood before filling the same position in the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster, but, crucially, both of those contests were run over shorter than the Queen's Vase and on less testing ground, negating her main asset: stamina. 

Stepped back up to two miles on her seasonal reappearance in the Sagaro Stakes, Estimate was faced with no easy task as she was thrown in against a mixture of gnarled veterans and up-and-coming stayers, but she made a most satisfactory return to action, prevailing by one and three quarter lengths, again finishing strongly and underling the impression that stamina is her forte. 

Her trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has developed a reputation over the years at being particularly adept at drawing improvement from horses as they mature, and it would be little surprise were the lightly-raced and relatively unexposed Estimate capable of taking another step forward granted the extra half a mile of the Gold Cup. Backers of Estimate can draw further confidence from the fact she is likely to be partnered by Ryan Moore and her claims are obvious, for all her form is a notch below what some of her rivals have achieved.

Looking at another potential improver, the James Fanshawe-trained High Jinx doesn't have many miles on the clock for a stayer and he improved with each start last term, his season culminating with a career-best effort when finishing second in the Prix du Cadran, a two-and-a-half mile contest run on heavy ground. 

Similarly to Estimate, stamina seems to be the strong suit of High Jinx and it is very ease to forgive a slightly disappointing effort on his return in a muddling renewal of the Henry II Stakes at Sandown. Held up off the pace, High Jinx was outpaced as the leaders quickened entering the straight and he was unable to launch a challenge, although he did finish quite strongly to grab a never-threatening fourth.

The way the race was run almost certainly wouldn't have played to the strengths of High Jinx, while it is also possible that he wasn't at his sharpest on his seasonal return, and he is certainly not one to rule out given his largely positive profile and proven stamina. He would become especially interesting should connections opt to fit headgear as, not for the first time, he carried his head slightly awkwardly at Sandown. One word of caution, however, is that James Fanshawe has stated High Jinx's participation is dependent on rain falling, and if there is one thing harder than second guessing a trainer it is second guessing the weather!

The Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown had promised to be extremely informative with a view to Ascot as Rite of Passage, the 2010 Gold Cup winner, and Saddler's Rock, last year's third, were due to clash. However, both Dermot Weld and John Oxx have opted to swerve that contest, sending their charges straight to the big event without a prep run. Dermot Weld produced the talented-but-fragile Rite of Passage to win the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day on his return from a 17-month absence, making what was only his second appearance since winning the Gold Cup three years ago, and going to the Royal Meeting without the benefit of a prep run is unlikely to provide many problems for the nine-year-old. 

Saddler's Rock, on the other hand, is only a five-year-old but has stood plenty of racing in his career and, on the face of it, the decision to go straight to Ascot is a strange one. Ante-post backers can take some consolation from the fact he produced a creditable performance on his first start back last year and John Oxx is clearly well capable of producing one on the big day, but it is difficult to see the move as a positive.

Rite of Passage currently heads the ante-post market and it is easy to see why as he is clearly a talented performer, has proven himself over C&D and demonstrated that he retained plenty of ability when last seen in October; he would have to rank high on anyone's shortlist come the day. However, Rite of Passage hasn't always made it to the day: he has missed intended targets due to training setbacks. He therefore makes limited appeal at his time under ante-post rules as you would be taking plenty on trust that Weld can keep Rite of Passage sound in the run up to the meeting.

Godolphin took this race last year with Colour Vision and although that particular stayer has a few questions to answer having put up a worryingly lacklustre display on his return at Sandown, Willing Foe appeals as an interesting contender. A narrow winner of last year's Ebor, where he just edged out subsequent Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond, Willing Foe took his form to a new level on his return at Newbury, looking like a very smart performer as he scooted clear of Harris Tweed in most impressive fashion. 

That race was over an extended 13 furlongs, however, so the step up to two and a half miles will represent a real step up into the unknown and he certainly didn't seem to lack pace at Newbury. Due to these stamina concerns, others make greater appeal but it would be foolhardy to completely dismiss this unexposed and potential improver.

It looks like a really open renewal of the Gold Cup, lacking a star performer such as Fame And Glory or Yeats, and there are plenty of horses towards the head of the market with serious questions to answer. Although she hasn't achieved the level of form required to win a contest such as this, Estimate possesses a solid profile, looks likely to benefit from the step up in trip and has had a good preparation, winning on her sole start this year. Given the doubts surrounding her rivals, Estimate makes considerable appeal from an ante-post perspective and, with the media likely to hone in on the fact she is owned by the Queen, it would register as little surprise were she challenging for favouritism on the day.

Recommendation:
Back Estimate to win the Gold Cup

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