3rd ODI Betting: England v New Zealand

Cook has a good record at Trent Bridge

Ed Hawkins reckons there should be swing at Trent Bridge on Wednesday as the hosts look to restore pride

England v New Zealand
Start time: 14.00BST
TV: live on Sky Sports

England
England's frailties have been exposed by New Zealand and they are desperately hoping to avoid defeat and a first whitewash at home since 2006. But they look likely to have to do it without Steve Finn and Stuart Broad. It would be a major surprise if either played with the Champions Trophy starting this week. Indeed it would raise eyebrows if they featured in that tournament considering the Ashes are looming. Jade Dernbach and Chris Woakes have been poor in their place. Surely Dernbach will lose out to Boyd Rankin, the former Irish seamer? Dernbach, who has been hopeless for some time now, has an economy rate of 7.10.

New Zealand
Do New Zealand get cocky and rest key men ahead of the Champions Trophy? It is a possibility. With one eye on England's problems the last thing they need is Mitchell McClenaghan or Kyle Mills coming down with a niggle. So we could see Ian Butler given a run out. Daniel Vettori may play, too, possibly in place of Nathan McCullum. Vettori is in dire need of game time and in a 'dead' match he may feature. Martin Guptill, with a century in each match so far, has not even been dismissed yet.

First-innings runs
The average first-innings score in the last ten matches at Trent Bridge is 237. Suffice to say this is a venue which England would have expected to wreak havoc with a fit bowling line-up. In 2008 they destroyed South Africa's batting, bowling them out for 83. There have been notable low totals in the last two games, too - 174 by Sri Lanka and 182 by England against South Africa. The ball nearly always swings at Trent Bridge and with cloud cover expected conditions could be ripe. It would not be smart to bet over the average total here.

Match odds
Six matches from ten under lights at Trent Bridge have been won by the side chasing so there is little to get excited about for England in terms of getting a helping hand against their opressors. They remain ridiculously short at 1.705/7 and New Zealand, dominant in both games, are the bet at 2.407/5 so long as there is no miracle recovery from Broad or Finn. Confidence in the England camp must have all but ebbed away and they looked short of ideas when Guptill and Brendon McCullum were toying with them at Southampton. Their partnership of 118 came off 50 deliveries, a run rate of 14.16 runs per over. Indeed, England's implosion was the like of which normally seen by 'minnow' sides. They conceded 132 in the last ten overs, their most profligate period in history. This suggests poor plans, let alone weak squad players.

Top England runscorer
Jonathan Trott, 4.607/2, battled bravely to record a ton last time out but rarely does he make an enticing bet on this market because he looks so stodgy at the crease. The stats say that Alastair Cook and Ian Bell are likely to be the most prolific. Cook averages 55 runs per innings at the venue and Bell a point under 40. They are 4.10n/a and 4.607/2 respectively.

Top New Zealand runscorer
All eyes will be on Guptill, who will go off at around 4.003/1. Next best is Ross Taylor at 4.707/2. Taylor is having a fine series but has been put in the shade by Guptill's bright lights. McCullum is 5.609/2. Grant Elliott is middle-order reliability, and we have a sneak for him at 10.009/1 just in case there is swing early on.

Recommended bet
Back under 250 or more runs at 1.9010/11