понедельник, 22 апреля 2013 г.

Timeform Notebook: Border can become a Notebook Legend

Border Legend can repay his rather important connections

Guineas trials dominated Saturday's Flat action but it is a horse that ran in a handicap at Newbury that will be the latest entrant to the Timeform Notebook...

At this stage of the Flat season punters and professionals alike are all playing the same game, attempting to find a horse that will either come on for the run, shaped better than the bare result or found circumstances transpiring against them, in the hope that they can reap the reward when their "eyecatcher" next takes to the track. 

Border Legend arguably fits into all three of the aforementioned categories; just take a look back at Newbury's 14:20 on Saturday to see what we mean. Although a typically competitive Spring Cup, thrusting together both the Lincoln and the Spring Mile form, it was ever so slightly unsatisfactory in the sense that, having raced down the centre of the track, the action towards at the death intensified down the far side, effectively eliminating those on the stands' side from contention. 

The Roger Charlton-trained gelding was one of those to race down the stands' side and, having travelled as well as any, he found himself unable to make an impact, eventually trailing home in sixteenth place without being knocked about. It is easy to put a line through this run, due to how the race unfolded and a near six-month absence, but there is also a suspicion that the Charlton stable as a whole are yet to find their feet yet; this notion is backed up by a quick glance at the strike-rates for the last few years, which suggests that yard really tends to hit form from May onwards.

What shouldn't be forgotten is the strength of Border Legend's form from last season, particularly his effort at Sandown when finishing behind the likes of Gaul Wood and Henry Allingham. A handicap mark of 86 seems more than fair, particularly when remembering that he remains most unexposed, and it would come as no surprise were he to prove a completely different proposition next time. 

Timeform Notebook: 
The only one among our Notebook contingent to hold any upcoming entries is the Ralph Beckett-trained Mombasa, who made it onto the list with the anticipation of a step to a mile and a half triggering some improvement. The three-year-old could run at either Doncaster on Friday or Leicester on Saturday with both races being staged over a mile and a quarter, but don't let that put you off as the level of form he has already achieved would see him go close in either and the current form of his trainer is also a positive. 

2013 Flat Notebook:
Jamaican Bolt - Of interest in five-furlong handicaps with cut in the ground.
Mombasa - Of interest in handicaps, particularly if stepped up to one and a half miles.
Loving Spirit - One to note in seven furlong or one-mile handicaps.
Border Legend - Remains unexposed and one to bear in mind for handicaps.

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