The Punter's US Masters In-Play Blog: Sergio off to a flyer at Augusta but past champs and D.J the value

Sergio Garcia getting on of trouble on the 11th hole yesterday

Steve looks back on a fascinating first day at Augusta, where Sergio Garcia and Marc Leishman have taken up the early running. Who does Steve think is value after round one? Read his early thoughts on the week here...

11:50 - April 12, 2013
There was a general consensus before the start of this year's US Masters that we could be in for an absolute cracker and after day one, it looks as though we are. It looked an extremely open affair before the off and still does now.

Here's the first round leaderboard

Sergio Garcia -6
Marc Leishman -6
Dustin Johnson -5
Matt Kuchar -4
Rickie Fowler -4
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano -4
Trevor Immelman -4
Freddie Couples -4
David Lynn -4
Jim Furyk -3
Zach Johnson -3
Adam Scott -3

-2 Bar

If recent history is anything to go by, the odds are that the winner will be one of the players already in the top-12, listed above, or either Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson.

As detailed in the preview, since 1998, Woods and Mickelson are the only players to win the US Masters having finished outside the top-ten after day one, so it may well pay to concentrate on the early pace-setters.

Those stats would suggest you'd have to give Marc Leishman and Sergio Garcia a big chance but round one leaders don't have a great record - leading brings its own unique pressure. Trevor Immelman was tied for the lead in 2008 before he went on to win but you have to go right back to Ben Crenshaw in 1984 to find the previous round one leader to go on and win.

I've backed Dustin Johnson, who sits on his own in third on -5, modestly at 9.89/1, as I can see him making a big move early on today.

There were rumblings from a number of players yesterday about the slow pace of the greens, especially Mickelson, and that probably in part explains the lofty positions on the leaderboard of a number of players. Garcia and Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, for example, are both players I wouldn't want to be with on fast sloping greens.

With overnight rain forecast, we might see some aggressive low-scoring from the early starters today and aggressive certainly describes Dustin Johnson. After booming a drive over the tall trees and across the dogleg on the par 5 13th yesterday, he hit a nine iron onto the green and knocked in the eagle putt!

He's always looked made for Augusta but until yesterday he hadn't showed it. The softer greens may have contributed slightly to his improvement but he's a player of immense talent who arguably should have won a major already and I felt I had to get him onside.

In addition to my wager on D.J, I've also backed past champions, Trevor Immelman and Zach Johnson and I've had a very small sentimental bet on Ernie Els, who perhaps should have won a Green Jacket before now.

I can't moan about the performance of my pre-event picks, with four of the five finishing the day under-par. Bubba Watson three-putted three times and appears to have joined the long list of defending champs to struggle but the others have fared well enough despite all four dropping shots over the final few holes.

I'm least confident about K.J. Choi (-2) and Luke Donald (-1) and I'm a little wary about Lefty (-1). After a slow start, he burst into life on the back-nine yesterday but dropped a shot on the 17th and he might just get over-aggressive too soon today. He's talking up his chance and he's sounding confident but that isn't always a precursor to a good performance will Phil. There is very definitely a danger that he could push too hard too early.

Obviously, the one I'm most happy with is Matt Kuchar, who could have fared even better. He was on -5 and in position A on the par 5 15th fairway yesterday but failed to make birdie there before bogeying 16. Regardless of the finish though, he looked in fine form and I'll be disappointed if he isn't in the shake-up come Sunday.

It was a great first day yesterday with a number of highlights. Exciting American prospect, Rickie Fowler, hit two double bogeys and just 21 putts during his four under-par 68 and England's David Lynn surprised plenty with his great start on debut. He too shot 68.

Former winners and now Champions Tour players, Bernard Langer and Freddie Couples rolled back the years to break par and at the other end of the scale, 14 year-old amateur, Guan Tianlang, from China created arguably the biggest story of the day. He confounded almost everyone by shooting a remarkable one over-par 73 and for me, that was the round of the day. Could he even make the cut?

Tiger Woods had threatened to stamp his authority on the event and was matched at just 3.4012/5 but three-putted the 14th hole to make bogey before paring the last four holes and Rory McIlroy started brightly but finished woefully. He flittered away far too many shots with the putter and two over-par on the back-nine was quite frankly a dreadful effort.

The greens are bound to speed-up considerably over the weekend and that will favour those with plenty of experience around here so I may well look to get Tiger onside today too. He looks a shade short at present at just 5.39/2 but I'll have my eye on him for sure.

Adam Scott is the only other player I've come close to backing and I see Paul Krishnamurty has gotten him onside. His Augusta record is superb, he's started well enough, and he's a reasonable price at 17.016/1 but I'm going to hang fire on him for now too.

The Punter's Pre-Event Picks
Phil Mickelson @ 15.5n/a
Matt Kuchar @ 42.041/1
Luke Donald @ 44.043/1
Bubba Watson @ 46.045/1
K.J Choi @ 160.0159/1

In-Play Bets
D. Johnson @ 9.89/1
T. Immelman @ 95.094/1
Z. Johnson @ 95.094/1
E. Els @ 170.0169/1

I'll be back in the morning with a look at the state of play at halfway.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter