Scottish National Preview: Rival to Power to Ayr glory?

Ayr plays host to the Scottish Grand National on Saturday.

Timeform's Matt Gardner analyses the field for the Scottish Grand National and attempts to highlight a couple of bets...

Being a confirmed "Flatty" on a desk in Timeform House chock full of National Hunt fans I was pleasantly surprised to suggest Merigo as an ante-post bet in last year's Scottish Grand National (evidence HERE). However I was even more surprised to be handed the baton once more, as I was fully expecting to be kept fresh on the subs bench until Guineas weekend. Quite whether my colleagues take delight in seeing me wade through the field for what will no doubt be a terribly slow and tedious race is yet to be determined but, in resolute fashion, I shall plough on and nail the winner... hopefully. 

The obvious starting point is with the winner of the English equivalent, namely Auroras Encore, who attempts to become only the second horse (Red Rum was the other in 1974) to win both races in the same year. Can he do it? I'm not so sure, and that opinion is not formed purely on the back of various stats and trends which suggest it's unlikely, as I loathe stats and trends to a similar degree as both avocados and those people on trains who are determined to deafen themselves with their own headphones.

Auroras Encore often comes into his own at this time of year and did so once more to score at Aintree, taking advantage of a lenient mark to beat Cappa Bleu by nine lengths. The 11-year-old finished second in this race last year but, having been put up 11 lb for his National triumph, he is now 5 lb higher than the mark he raced off 12 months ago. Bearing that in mind, and the relatively swift turnaround from Aintree, we may be best served by ignoring him and focusing on a couple that maybe had their sights set upon other targets but look to gain compensation here. 

Rival d'Estruval most certainly fits that bill, with the eight-year-old having been primed for a tilt at the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He would surely have gone close that day but for falling at the second last, contesting the lead with Tofino Bay at the time, and it is quite possible that he may have yet more to offer over fences having had just the five starts. Whether that fall has left a mark on him is impossible to tell until he takes to the track but, on all known evidence, he really ought to go close to making amends for that incident. 

Another that could be worth a second chance is Fill The Power, who found circumstances transpiring against him in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter last month. The seven-year-old took to fences early this season, winning at Sedgefield in May, and has accrued plenty of experience since, shaping all the while as though an extreme test of stamina would bring out the best in him. He was finally granted that in the aforementioned Uttoxeter affair but, despite shaping as though he failed to stay, the suspicion is that he simply paid for racing too close to an overly strong pace, weakening as things drew to a conclusion. 

I'm prepared to give Fill The Power another role of the dice in the hope that he can confirm the previous impressions created with regards to both his stamina and his suitability for a race of this ilk, particularly with his current price of 34.0n/a making plenty of appeal. 

Others worth considering include both Bradley and Our Mick, with the former likely to have his day in a decent staying chase and the latter likely to stay this far, although his jumping would be a concern. Godsmejudge is another that merits a few words, particularly as he was carrying my cash at Cheltenham, and were the ground likely to resemble a bog at Ayr he would be difficult to ignore. However, against all of the Scottish stereotypes, the ground is unlikely to be atrocious and Godsmejudge had his lack of pace woefully exposed last month; a similar scenario could unfold once more. 

There will be no Encore for Auroras at Ayr, of that I'm not certain but fairly sure, and we are quite happy to side against him with both Rival d'Estruval and Fill The Power. The former looks certain to go close if none the worse for his Cheltenham tumble whilst Fill The Power has always struck as the type to do well in this sort of race and is currently trading at appealing odds.

Recommendations:
Back Rival d'Estruval 7.87/1
Back Fill The Power @ 34.033/1

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