Lee Dixon: Fulham to nick close game against QPR at Craven Cottage

Harry Redknapp's QPR are in a position now where draws aren't going to be enough

Football Ambassador Lee Dixon can't see QPR getting anything out of the game at Craven Cottage against Martin Jol's Fulham...

Fulham had a great result at White Hart Lane last time out, something that would have given former Spurs boss Martin Jol immense pride and satisfaction. Fulham are now pretty much home and hosed for another season in the Premier League, and are now in a sort of limbo; not seriously challenging for a European place, but also not at all worried about relegation. 

One team that certainly are worried about relegation however are Fulham's opponents on Monday night Queens Park Rangers. Harry Redknapp and his players are now at the stage where draws aren't really enough. The reverse against Aston Villa was a shocker, absolutely sickening for them. To lose a game to a relegation rival that you actually led against will takes some getting over. It's yet another example of what could have been, and the manager will be hoping the international break has given them time to get it out of their system.

The fact that Fulham now have nothing to play for is a plus for QPR. The last thing they want to be doing is playing a top team at the moment, and with respect to Fulham, Redknapp will have this down as a winnable game. That said, it's a derby and so Jol's charges should be fired up to win it for the supporters. It's not a game QPR will have all their own way, and I don't think Martin Jol is the sort of manager to allow his players to switch off at this stage of the season.

For all the glimmers of hope that QPR have shown from time to time since Redknapp took over, I actually think they've been bang average at best for the entire season. They don't score enough goals, they can't avoid conceding them (especially away from home) and that is a recipe for relegation, whichever way you slice it.

Although they beat Fulham at Loftus Road in December, I don't see that having much of a bearing on this Monday's game, and Fulham are simply a better side - they went the length of March unbeaten and haven't lost since a narrow defeat to Man United at the end of February so must be favourites to win this one.

I certainly don't see there being many goals in this game, neither team are particularly free-scoring, and QPR have only managed a paltry 26 goals all season. It's going to be won by the odd goal, and the way things are at the moment it's much more likely to be Fulham that score it. Under 2.5 Goals looks a good bet at 1.9620/21, and Fulham to win 1-0 in the Correct Score market is an attractive price at 8.27/1. Back both.

Recommended Bets

Back under 2.5 Goals at 1.9620/21
Back Fulham to win 1-0 in the Correct Score market at 8.27/1

Michael Cox's Tactical View

I agree with Lee on the lack of goals here, although [1.96] doesn't take my fancy in the Under 2.5 goals market. I'm going to be slightly brave, and back QPR to keep a clean sheet. They've kept five in 17 under Harry Redknapp - a decent if unspectacular record - and I think they're most vulnerable to pace. You don't get much of that from Dimitar Berbatov and Bryan Ruiz - in fact, Fulham have been caught offside less than any other Premier League side this season, because those two don't look to penetrate the opposition defence. I'm not sure whether Fulham will still be motivated to win at this stage of the season, whereas QPR are fighting for their lives. A QPR clean sheet at 5.2 looks good to me.

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

Fulham have only failed to score at home twice this season, on both occasions that was against top opposition (Man Utd & Spurs). As Lee says, QPR have only scored 26 goals this season (the lowest in the league), but they have shown some signs of fight recently with seven of those coming in their last three games.

While Fulham’s last five games have only produced seven goals, I can see why Lee is favouring a low scoring game. However, I would be wary that QPR games over the same period have produced 19 goals and in this fixture last season, Fulham hit QPR for six.

Fulham don’t have a great deal left to play for but with local pride at stake I think they will have too much for QPR on Monday night. Fulham are currently priced at 2.06 to win this, that price in my book is simply wrong. I think the market has been distorted simply because this is a MUST win game for QPR, I had Fulham around the 1.75 mark. For that reason alone, I will be backing Fulham to win in the Match Odds @ 2.06.