IPL Betting: Delhi Daredevils vs Kings XI Punjab

Adam Gilchrist's side are in contention to reach the play-offs

Despite being among the lesser lights of this year's IPL, both Delhi and Punjab both pulled off impressive run chases to win their last match. Paul Krishnamurty argues that in this battle to retain momentum, the betting value lies in backing the outsiders... 

Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi Daredevils
Start Time: BST (15:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com

Delhi Daredevils 

At last Delhi have a win under their belt, thanks to a magnificent burst from Virender Sehwag, that many of us doubted he could still produce. The market and most commentators felt Mumbai had set a stiff target of 162 in their match on Sunday, but in chasing it down with three overs to spare, Sehwag demonstrated that almost anything is possible when he clicks. Whether that was a one-off or the start of a renaissance, however, remains an open question. They remain an ageing team too dependent on big-hitters in their top order but at least confidence should be on the rise, 

Kings XI Punjab

There are obvious similarities between Punjab's fortunes and today's opponents. Like Delhi, they upset the odds on Sunday with a superb run chase, led by Mandeep Singh and David Miller. As with Sehwag, their pinch-hitting opener Adam Gilchrist looks well past his best. Nevertheless, a couple of unlikely victories have propelled Kings XI to fifth place in the points table and very much in the race for a play-off spot.

First Innings Runs

In the wake of Sunday's boundary-fest, there may well be a good betting angle for backing unders at Feroz Shah Kotla. During Mumbai's innings and the previous match here, this looked like a slow pitch on which anything above 150 would be competitive. That may well still turn out to be the case and Sehwag's remarkable innings the exception. Both of these sides have crumbled three times already this season, with Delhi recording totals of 128, 114 and 83; Punjab 138, 124 and 123. After Sunday, I expect 150+ will be available to lay around 1.758/11 and 140+ around 1.351/3. Both represent solid value.

Match odds

If the points table is any sort of guide, Kings XI must represent some trading value at 2.56/4 away to a side that lost it's first six matches. In response to one performance, almost wholly reliant on Sehwag, the odds are back to their pre-tournament levels, which seems like an over-reaction. I don't have strong faith in Punjab, but most sides trade shorter than this at some stage of T20 matches so Gilchrist and co must be the pick as a back-to-lay.

Top Delhi batsman

Delhi's fragile middle order wasn't tested against Mumbai and, until they demonstrate improvement, I'm still only prepared to consider the leading trio of Sehwag, captain Mahela Jayawardene and David Warner. Regardless of Sunday's heroics, Sehwag remains extremely unreliable so I'm sticking with Warner at around 4.57/2.

Top Punjab batsman

Against Pune, David Miller's fine unbeaten 80 proved there is more to the Punjab middle-order than David Hussey, who for once didn't even get a bat. The Aussie was relegated to number six in favour of big-hitters to try and beat a daunting run-rate, but will normally arrive at number four. Hussey remains their key batsman and always a fair bet around the 5.04/1 mark.

Recommended bet

Back Kings XI Punjab @ 2.56/4 (Back to lay)