FC Basel vs Chelsea: Torres and company to punish mistakes

Fernando Torres has scored four Europa League goals this term

FC Basel dumped Tottenham out of the Europa League in the previous round, but Kevin Hatchard believes the Swiss side revealed frailties that Chelsea can exploit.

FC Basel vs Chelsea, Europa League SF first leg, Thu 20:05 BST, Live on ITV1

Match Odds: Basel 3.052/1, Chelsea 2.568/5, the draw 3.45n/a

I should start by giving immense credit to Murat Yakin's FC Basel team, who have defied the odds to reach the last four of a major European competition for the first time in the club's history. Dnipro, Zenit and my tournament tip Spurs have all been upset, and the Swiss outfit are now looking for a second London scalp.

Basel's home form is excellent, but as I pointed out before their penalty shootout win over Tottenham, Yakin's men aren't unbeatable at St Jakob Park. You can make a case for a Basel home win by pointing out they are unbeaten at home in the Europa League, and they have only failed to win three domestic games in front of their home crowd, but I think they are defensively vulnerable against top opposition. Basel conceded two really poor goals at home to Spurs, and in the Champions League qualifiers they squeaked a 1-1 draw against Molde before losing 2-1 to Romanian visitors CFR Cluj.

If Basel couldn't contain a Spurs attack led by the soporific Emmanuel Adebayor (Spurs scored four times over the two legs), I suspect they will struggle to deal with the likes of Juan Mata, Victor Moses and a revitalised Fernando Torres. The former Liverpool striker, complete with Zorro-esque mask of late, has scored four goals in six Europa League starts. That tally includes the opening goal in both legs of the quarter-final against Rubin Kazan. Surprisingly, Torres is 7.26/1 in the First Goalscorer market and 2.747/4 in the To Score market, hefty prices when you consider he is certain to lead the line in the absence of the cup-tied Demba Ba.

I don't buy the theory that Chelsea will be distracted by their bid to qualify for next season's Champions League. This is the semi-final of a major European competition, and elite players like the ones at Chelsea's disposal know how to perform on this stage, as they proved by winning last season's Champions League. Their coach Rafa Benitez has led teams into three major European finals, and has won both the Champions League and the UEFA Cup. It also helps that Chelsea's next game is a home clash with out-of-form Swansea, who have been on their summer holidays for several weeks. If anything it is Basel who are at a psychological disadvantage, as many of their young stars have never had to deal with the pressure of getting this close to a continental trophy. They have also lost the vast experience of veteran forward Alex Frei, who has left to become sporting director at Swiss rivals Lucerne.

Chelsea have been reinforced by the return to fitness of defenders Ashley Cole and Gary Cahill, and Benitez has made positive noises about both players returning to the starting eleven. Oscar is thought to have shaken off a slight groin injury, while Basel's tricky wide-man Valentin Stocker should also play after overcoming a knock.

I think Chelsea will profit from Basel's defensive frailties, but their patchy away form (three wins in last 13 games in all competitions) makes them too short for the away win at 2.568/5. Of more interest is the chunky 2.111/10 on offer for Over 2.5 Goals. That bet has paid out in nine of the Blues' last 11 games, including each of the last six. It would also have paid out five of Basel's last six matches, including both legs of the quarter-final against Spurs. I expect Basel to try and force the pace to gain a crucial first-leg advantage, which should open the game up. It's also worth noting that Chelsea have scored at least twice in eight of their last 11 games, so backing them to score two goals or more at 2.43n/a is also worth a look.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.111/10
Back Chelsea to score two goals or more in the Chelsea Total Goals market at 2.43n/a
Back Fernando Torres to be First Goalscorer at 7.26/1