ATC Derby Preview: History awaits a Deal

It's A Dundeel will try to make history at Randwick

The time-honoured G1 ATC Derby for three-year-olds over the classic trip of 2400m presents star colt It's A Dundeel a rare opportunity to write his name into annals of history...

Since the first leg of the three-year-old triple crown was changed from the Canterbury Guineas over 1900m to the Randwick Guineas over 1600m in 2006, no horse has completed the treble, Metal Bender in 2009 coming closest winning the first two legs before being unplaced in the Derby.

Trained out of New Zealand by Murray Baker, It's A Dundeel has done the majority of his racing in Australia, stabled at Murray's son Bjorn's Warwick Farm Yard. Coming off a Group 1 winning Spring where he took out the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m at Randwick, the son of High Chaparral has been in rare form this preparation winning his last two runs in emphatic style.

After an eye-catching fourth fresh up in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) behind Pierro, It's A Dundeel then took out the G1 Randwick Guineas over 1600m at Warwick Farm when wearing blinkers for the first time.

Last time out he could not have been more impressive crushing his rivals in the G1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m by almost seven lengths, running to a new master Timeform rating of 125p, making him the equal highest rated winner of the race since Octagonal in 1996. The average winning Timeform rating for an ATC Derby is 123, so It's A Dundeel has a couple of pounds in hand on that with the promise of more to come.

If there is a danger to him, it could only be the 2400m as It's A Dundeel failed to place in the Victoria Derby over 2500m behind Fiveandahalfstar in the spring, his only start past 2040m. Still, I am not reading too much into that as the Victoria Derby was his last run at the end of a long campaign and the colt was well past his best. But, on the positive side, race rider James McDonald freely admits he set the colt too much to do with the colt still running home the last 1000m in a respectable 57.83 seconds.

It's A Dundeel should have too much class and turn of foot for his rivals this afternoon and if he does run to form, a 125 Timeform rating will make him one of the highest Timeform rated winners of the race in the last 25 years.

Looking for dangers it is hard to go past impressive Tulloch Stakes winner Philippi (Timeform rated 113) and Alister Clark Stakes winner Hvasstan (115).

The significance of the Tulloch Stakes for the ATC Derby has risen in the last couple of years with 2012 winner Polish Knight just going down in the Derby and second placed Descarado in 2010 finishing runner up to Shoot Out in the Blue Riband event.

Hvasstan showed staying qualities in the spring winning the G2 Norman Robinson Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield then running fourth behind Fiveandahalfstar in the Victoria Derby. After a couple of slow runs early in this campaign Hvasstan bounced back to winning form in the Alister Clark Stakes defeating Philippi, a form line that was franked with that galloper's emphatic win in the Tulloch Stakes.

Last time out he failed to handle the Sydney way of going in the G1 Rosehill Guineas behind It's A Dundeel getting on the "wrong leg" from the outset and never getting into the race at any stage. The horse's condition has been monitored since that run and from all accounts is fine, the Gelagotis brothers looking for a much improved effort this afternoon. Leading Melbourne rider Craig Newitt who was aboard the colt in his Alister Clark win will again be atop.

It has been a long time since a Tulloch Stakes winner has been as impressive as Phillipi. After two runs back from a spell, Philippi was then runner up to Hvasstan in the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley beaten a length. Trainer Michael Kent then fitted blinkers for the Tulloch Stakes and the horse was most impressive, racing clear in the straight to score by three lengths running to 110+. Philippi is on trial at the 2400m this afternoon, but he is a rapidly improving galloper who could easily make the favourite work if the race unfolds in his favour.

Geelong Classic winner Solemn from the Peter Snowden stable was well fancied in early betting for the Derby but on the face of it he has failed to recapture his spring form in all four runs back this preparation. Last spring, Solemn staged an impressive effort to take the Geelong Classic over 2200m and Snowden wisely decided to send him to the spelling paddocks rather than push on to a Victoria Derby.

In four starts this time in he has failed to show anything like that level of performance finishing over 11 lengths from Philippi in the Rosehill Guineas last start. It would be a massive shock if he turned that form around.

Whichever way you analyse the race, It's A Dundeel has most of the bases covered. Enjoy history in the making.

Off Time: Saturday 06:50 BST

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