Against All Odds: Goals in La Liga

Castro has caught the eye of some top European teams

Real Betis host Getafe in La Liga this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that viewers tuning in on Sky Sports Xtra at 21:00 could be in for a feast of goals.

Betis have slid out of the European qualification places after winning just two of their last nine in the league. Pepe Mel's side were challenging for the last remaining Champions League spot but they are now down in seventh, three points behind sixth placed Valencia. If they want to be playing in Europe next season then they need to overhaul Valencia, Malaga or Real Sociedad above them, but they need to start winning more regularly.

As far as the goals go, The Green and Whites have scored 39 and conceded 42 this year - giving their games an average of 2.89 goals each time. 16 of their 28 have gone over 2.5, with their last four all having three or more, including a 3-3 thriller at Real Sociedad. Rubn Castro leads the way with 16 in all competitions but Jorge Molina has also chipped in with 10 and he's netted in three of his last four.

Getafe have found their form in recent weeks and have picked up 13 points from a possible 15. They are now in eighth place, just one point behind tonight's opponents and have a real shot of earning European football next season.  

Luis Garca Plaza's men have netted 38 times this term and conceded 44, giving their matches an average of 2.93 goals per 90 minutes. 15 of their 28 fixtures have gone north of 2.5, with five of their last half dozen on the road doing so. Their goals have been shared round the team but Adrin Colunga has netted four in his last six, including a brace at Real Mallorca.

The reverse fixture finished 2-4 in November and I think we could be in for another goal fest here. Under 2.5 is trading around 1.991/1 and given the recent statistics, I have to make it my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Betis v Getafe @ 1.991/1 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 90 pts
Returned: 86.74 pts
P/L – 3.26 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)