Premier League: Bank on Di Canio to come up trumps at Sunderland

Is Paolo Di Canio a better coach than many give him credit for?

Jonathan Wilson paints a grim picture in relation to Sunderland's current finances and daunting start to the Premier League season, but in Paolo Di Canio there's definitely some light at the end of the tunnel...

If we can't be successful, I said after Roy Keane's appointment at Sunderland in 2006, at least this makes sure we won't be dull; Paolo Di Canio's reign, you suspect, can be approached in the same light, which is perhaps why, for all the changes in personnel, I approach a new season with an unusual sense of optimism.

The club's handling of the storm that surrounded his appointment was abysmal. I confess that as a fan I feel deeply uneasy about his political beliefs (whatever they may be, which remains unclear to me), and I confess that as a journalist I feel uneasy about the desperate grabbing after the low-hanging fruit of that story, the quickness to judge and the refusal to acknowledge that some terms may have different meanings in different contexts.

But perhaps the most baffling aspect of the whole affair is the apparently widespread belief that, leaving all else aside, Di Canio is somehow a bad coach.

He qualified top of his year at Coverciano. There may still be a Luddite distrust of coaching qualifications in England but, even so, that is a notable achievement, bespeaking commitment, energy and intelligence.

Those who know Di Canio speak of a voracious auto-didact, somebody determined to know more about everything. He soaks up information and, on the evidence of his time at Swindon, processes it effectively: he took them to promotion and they were second in League One when he resigned. Sunderland at the start of next season will be ferociously fit and will have a clear game plan.

Even in the few weeks Di Canio was at Sunderland last season, people at the club were struck by the hours he worked, by the relentless drive for improvement. He demands that from his players as well, and that, perhaps, has come as a shock to some.

Shirkers will not be tolerated: there must be 100% commitment from all. That, perhaps, explains the announcement this week that Stephane Sessegnon is up for sale. He was Sunderland's best attacking player in 2011-12 and showed flashes of that ability towards the end of last season but had problems settling his family and hankers after a move back to France; other managers might have tried to persuade him to stay, but Di Canio's attitude seems to be that it's better to let him go, take the money and reinvest it.

Assuming that is Di Canio's decision. Figures for 2011-12 - the most recent available - showed Sunderland made an operating loss of 27million leading to a debt of 84million with wages at 82% of turnover. That is unsustainable and, while the new television rights deal will help, it's also clear that savings have to be made.

As well as selling Simon Mignolet - a big loss given how often the goalkeeper saved them last season - and releasing Titus Bramble and Matt Kilgallon, Sunderland have signed six players already this summer with an average age off 22.7. There is a clear shift to youth, to players Di Canio can mould.

After the final game of last season, Di Canio spoke for 25 minutes about discipline at the club. Many described it as "a rant", but it wasn't: it was a rational statement of what he expects from players. The timing was perfect: survival had been assured, the message could sink in over the close season and players could return with a clean slate for pre-season. Moreover, just staying up - although that was Di Canio's only goal when he arrived - wasn't allowed to be seen as an achievement.

Sunderland are 6.25/1 to be relegated - a little under half the price they were at this point last year. Only the three promoted teams, plus Stoke and Norwich are seen as more likely to go down.

The fixture list is troubling: after playing Fulham on the opening day, Sunderland face the likely top six and Newcastle in their next seven home games: after that first match it'll be a long time before any points are available that may be considered anything approaching easy. It's a huge risk to expect Keiren Westwood to replace Mignolet and, if Sessegnon goes, there is desperate need for creativity and goals from deep.

So it could go horribly wrong, but Di Canio is a far better coach than he's been given credit for and at least, after the sense of gloomy drift that has characterised most of the recent past, this season begins with a feeling of excitement.

Recommended Bet

Sunderland to finish in the top 10 @ 4.1n/a

Can Weidman end Silva’s dominance?

Can Weidman end Silva’s dominance?

By Michael GalesJun 26, 2013

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UFC 162 comes from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on July 6th as Chris Weidman looks to dethrone UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. Silva is unbeaten in 15 fights, so can Weidman become the first UFC fighter to beat the pound-for-pound king?

Is Silva’s dominance nearing its end?

The main event at UFC 162 between Anderson ‘the Spider’ Silva and Chris ‘the Supernatural’ Weidman has caused excitement for fans and pundits alike, as many believe the challenger has a realistic chance of becoming the first man in UFC to end Silva’s dominance.

Silva, widely considered the greatest talent in UFC, will enter the cage as the 1.379* favourite, while the challenger is set as the 3.340* underdog.

The Spider (33-4) is unbeaten in the UFC, racking up 16 wins since joining the promotion in June 2006. The pound-for-pound number one has defended his title a record 10 times since wresting the crown from Rich Franklin in October 2006.

The Brazilian Silva last fought in October 2012, when he cruised to a first round TKO win over Stephan Bonnar in a light heavyweight bout in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – his fifth consecutive stoppage victory.

29 year-old Weidman (9-0) has won all five of his UFC fights since making his debut with a unanimous win over Alessio Sakara in 2011. When the challenger enters the octagon in July he would have been off for nearly a year.

The ‘Supernatural’s’ last bout was a second-round knockout win over injured Mark Munoz on July 11, 2012. Shoulder surgery has kept the upcoming star out of the cage but is back to full fitness and eager to maintain his undefeated career.

Experience a weakness for Weidman

Weidman has not fought since July 2012, and in his short nine-fight career he has not fought anywhere near Silva’s level. Weidman has also never fought in a pay-per-view main event, so no one knows how he will react under lights.

On the other side of the octagon, Silva’s taking the bout with an inexperienced challenger represents the most risky endeavor he has taken since making his UFC debut in 2006 – a loss would fuel critics views that believe the 38-year-old no longer belongs at the top of the pound-for-pound rankings.

Silva will look to ‘strike’ gold at UFC 162

Anderson Silva is one of, if not the most feared striker in MMA. The Brazilian has the highest striking accuracy (67%) in UFC, the most career knockdowns (19) and has finished 20 of his victims from strikes.

The Southpaw striker knows how to make his opponent miss and then capitalise on his rival’s mistakes. The ‘Spider’ can strike with the same proficiency whether it’s a kick, elbow or punch.

Weidman is a solid striker despite not being classed at the same level as Silva – few are. The challenger is a well-rounded orthodox striker despite not being as technically savvy as others. His last victory over Munoz showed that he could beat another wrestler by using his hands to dictate the fight – the Supernatural has won 3 fights by TKO.

Physically both pugilists will enter the octagon around 185lbs and stand at 6ft 2, while the challenger will have a very slight reach advantage.

Interestingly neither fighter has ever been KO’d in a combined 46 MMA fights. The champion’s striking defence sees him rebuff 63% of his opponent’s attacks, while Weidman’s defence is slightly better at 68%.

Weidman the ‘master’ wrestler

If Weidman can beat Silva, it will be in the wrestling department. The Supernatural has an excellent wrestling forte (72% takedown accuracy), and if Silva has an area of weakness, it has to be on the ground. Although his record against wrestlers is remarkable, he is only ever troubled when put on his back.

The challenger may have a strong wrestling pedigree (4.47 average takedowns per 15 minutes), but he will need to get the fight to the ground in the first.

In the first fight against Chael Sonnen, Silva was dominated, spending the majority of the fight on his back before he completed one of the greatest comebacks in MMA history to make Sonnen tap.

However, Silva practiced his takedown defence (70% defence against takedowns) for the rematch, which he subsequently dominated. Knowing Weidman possesses a similar threat; he will surely look to tighten up that facet of his game once more.

In terms of submissions Silva averages 1.13 per fight and has made six fighters tap out including Dan Henderson, Travis Lutter and Sonnen, while Weidman averages 1.38 submission attempts per fight and has won three bouts by submission.

Final thoughts

Silva is evasive, while his unorthodox striking, pinpoint accuracy and durability will cause problems for Weidman.

Weidman, despite having the tools – wrestling – to win the fight, others have also had this advantage but have all left the Octagon defeated. Can Weidman win in his first pay-per-view main event fight and dethrone the king of MMA?

See the best UFC 162 Silva vs. Weidman odds

*Odds subject to change

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please contact the author.

Liverpool: Mignolet move gives Rodgers a tough call

Simon Mignolet has completed his move to Liverpool

Liverpool are making all the early moves but this latest one could spell time for Pepe Reina writes Christian Crowther...

Liverpool announced their fourth signing of the summer yesterday as Belgian international Simon Mignolet completed his 10,000,000 move from Sunderland.

Brendan Rodgers is clearly wasting no time in adding to his squad as Mignolet joins Kolo Toure and Spaniards Iago Aspas and Luis Alberto as Anfield's newest additions. 

At 25, the former Sunderland stopper clearly fits Rodgers' preference of buying players with bright futures over those at the peak of their powers, following on from the January additions of Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho.

The swift business being done by Liverpool compared with other Premier League clubs shows real intent from Rodgers that he is trying to mould a team capable of challenging the top four this season, after falling considerably short in the last campaign.

Liverpool's price for a top four finish is currently at 3.814/5, but the Merseysiders cannot afford such a terrible start to the season as they did in 2012/13 - recording just one win in their first seven games - if they are to keep pace with their rivals.

While stiff competition for places is imperative to this quest, Mignolet's arrival leaves obvious question marks over the future of Pepe Reina.

At 30-years-old Liverpool's long-standing stopper is far from finished at the top level and has never had his number one position threatened in eight years at the club.

It's difficult to imagine an international of his stature settling for a seat on the bench either. 

Reina had been linked with a return to Barcelona, however that transfer trail has since gone cold, following Victor Valdes' decision to remain at the Camp Nou for another season.

Potentially, this means Rodgers is left with a straight judgement call on who he wishes to install between the sticks for the start of their league campaign.

With no European football at Anfield to supplement appearances for a second string stopper this season, that could equal one miffed goalkeeper made to settle for Capital One Cup games.

Finding Reina another destination and recouping some of Mignolet's 10m fee could well be the best option.

England v New Zealand T20 Betting: Pietersen factor not enough to curb Kiwis

Luke Wright top scored for England in the first T20

Ed Hawkins, who tipped New Zealand to win game one, says the Kiwis should be backed again at the same price for a repeat at The Oval on Thursday

England v New Zealand
Start time:
TV: live on Sky Sports 1

England
The five-run defeat by New Zealand at The Oval on Tuesday was hardly a bitter pill to swallow for the hosts. England gambled on youth and in some respects they, and their supporters, were rewarded. It was a typically green performance from a young side: chaotic, energetic and over-excitable in the field.

But with the bat they were fearless, aggressive and, ultimately, just short of nous. There is much to be pleased with although their expensive bowling is a major worry for game two. Chris Woakes looks likely to lose his spot after bowling one over for 19. But that's OK as England need to find room for Kevin Pietersen who makes a long-awaited return following a knee problem. The hosts used seven bowlers anyway so not replacing Woakes with a like-for-like is not a problem.

New Zealand
The Kiwis showed no mercy on a flat Oval wicket as Hamish Rutherford and Brendon McCullum got them off to a flying start. Ross Taylor's 32 from 19 balls continued the demolition work as they posted 201. It was just as well as Martin Guptill was missing for some reason. Without him they are undeniably weaker and whether he makes this XI - he was named in the squad - remains to be seen. It is possible to make a case for the Kiwi batting tail being too long. It might start at No 8. Corey Anderson is slated for that slot and, although he has a first-class century to his name, he is unproven at this level.

First-innings runs
Before game one we said that The Oval can be an unpredictable wicket. There were highs and lows in a first-innings average of 153 over the last 10. But on Tuesday the surface lived up to its reputation for being great to bat on and following the true striking seen in that match we wouldn't advise getting short of anything around 160. The weather forecast is not as good. There is cloud cover all day and although that might help swing, it's not something we need to be betting on.

Match odds
No change on the match odds market and that has to be down to the Pietersen factor. England are 1.804/5 for victory with New Zealand 2.206/5. Can one player really make that much difference? Well, in Twenty20 one can. And there are few more powerful than Pietersen. But this column wouldn't be doing its job if we were swayed by the swagger of one player. Before The Oval the evidence was staring at us in the face that New Zealand were overpriced. After giving England's bowlers a good duffing nothing has changed. It is possible that New Zealand are too reliant on McCullum and Taylor but we'll take that chance all the same.

Top England runscorer
Pietersen will probably be priced at around 4.003/1 for honours. He is in good form having crunched Yorkshire's bowlers for Surrey last week and The Oval is his home ground. In all international cricket he averages 47 there, which is pretty impressive. But his T20 record at the venue is not so good - one 50 in four attempts. Pietersen is likely to bat at No 3, usurping Luke Wright who top scored with 52 from 34. Alex Hales and Michael Lumb, who both impressed, will attract support and will probably be 4.003/1. That's also down to the KP factor.

Top New Zealand runscorer
James Franklin was the surprise choice to open the batting with Hamish Rutherford. It did not come off as he was dismissed for a golden duck. If Guptill does not make it, Franklin may get another chance but you should know that although he can whack it, a strike rate of 118 is probably not high enough to warrant support, particularly with the market wise to the potential batting order. McCullum and Taylor will see most money but don't forget that Rutherford was only six runs shy of pipping Super Mac for honours.

Recommended bet
Back New Zealand at 2.206/5

Timeform US SmartPlays: Tuesday June 25

Timeform's US team have three bets for you

Timeform's US team provide you with the best three bets on Tuesday...

Finger Lakes race 5 (19:58 BST) win back #7 MONEYINYOUR POCKET at 3.814/5 or longer
Presque Isle Downs race 4 (23:40 BST) win back #6 BURKHAAN at 4.67/2 or longer
Mountaineer race 5 (01:40 BST) win lay #3 ITS RUBY at 3.55/2 or shorter   

Get FREE Timeform Star Ratings & Comments for the US & Canada at http://www.timeform.com/free/.

Timeform Radio Tip: Fella a Decent bet at Brighton

David thinks Decent Fella can score at Brighton

David Cleary has examined the card at Brighton and found two bets for you...

Beverley and Brighton provide low-grade Flat fare this afternoon, and, frankly, decent bets look very thin on the ground.

The closing seven-furlong handicap at Brighton (17.15) looks a good opportunity for Decent Fella to gain a first win since 2011. That success came off a BHA mark of 93 and he's clearly been on a steady, long decline since, as this afternoon he races off just 65. However, there were clear signs that his turn could be near at Catterick last time out, and the form of that race has been boosted since. With the promising 7-lb claimer Oisin Murphy taking over in the saddle, Decent Fella looks the pick of the weights in a race that should be run to suit him. Decent Fella hasn't run at Brighton before, but he has a win at Goodwood to his name, so hopefully the switchback track won't be a problem.

The best race on the Brighton card is the sprint handicap at 15.45. There's certainly a case to be made for Sandfrankskipsgo, though early birds have spoilt the price of that one. The three-year-old Red Refraction is better than his run last time indicates and his earlier Haydock form gives him every chance. However, in the expectation that the race will be run ideally for her, a chance is taken on Whitecrest bouncing back to form on this track. She has won once and been second three times from four starts here, her defeat of Dorback here in the spring having a solid look to it. Whitecrest was badly drawn under a penalty next time and the 0-85 she contested last time was a fair bit more competitive than today's 0-80 event. 

Recommended Bets:
Back Decent Fella @ 4.03/1 in the 17.15 at Brighton 
Back Whitecrest @ 7.613/2 in the 15.45 at Brighton

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The 80/20 Bet: Tuesday, Beverley, 14:30

Nick has opted for the lesser fancied Richard Fahey runner in this maiden

Nick's off to Beverley for his 80/20 selection...

Today's 80/20 is Latenightrequest in the 14:30 at Beverley.

This filly finished fourth to Yorkshire Relish at York earlier this month. She ran on strongly in the closing stages, and finished the race with good energy.

I think she is sitting on a big effort, and should go close at a decent price.

At present she is trading at 6.86/1 on the exchange.

Bayern Munich: Guardiola well set to continue success

Pep Guardiola takes over from Jupp Heynckes at the Allianz Area

It's official: Pep Guardiola is the new boss of Bayern Munich, in case anyone was wondering...

Although we have known the identity of Bayern Munich's new manager since January, it wasn't until Monday that Pep Guardiola was granted his grand unveiling at the Allianz Arena.

In front of a record amount of journalists at a Bayern press conference - all chomping at the bit to get a question across to Jupp Heynckes' replacement - Guardiola was the picture of calm even if his German leaves room for improvement.

While his German is sure to get better, the far greater reaching question is whether or not Guardiola can improve a team which has just completed a treble?

The former Barcelona man shrugged off the subject of improvement by stating: "There's always pressure to win at any big club, that's why you're a manager."

Guardiola also suggested that he'd much rather take over a successful team than a team languishing 18 points behind the league leaders, a direct reference to the situation he inherited when installed at the Camp Nou back in 2008.

Of course, we all witnessed what happened then, as the trophies flowed like wine in the ensuing years, with Guardiola most notably capturing two Champions League titles.

And while Bayern chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge was keen to stress that retaining their Bundesliga crown was the Pep's main objective, there's no hiding the fact that the top brass are intent on experiencing further continental success.

Presently, Bayern are the overwhelming favourites to defend their German title next season at 1.241/4, with Borussia Dortmund considered their nearest threat once more at 6.05/1.

At this juncture, it's difficult to envisage Bayern being troubled by any other team, though becoming the first team to retain the Champions League in its present guise remains a far bigger task.

As he did at Barcelona, Guardiola will have to manage with being the favourites to win the competition from the outset, with Bayern currently rated at 4.77/2, just in front of his old club Barca at 5.04/1.

If anyone is equipped to deal with the pressure of the favourites tag, it's the former Barca chief. With the quality of players at his disposal, success seems like it's there to stay at the Allianz Arena for the foreseeable.

Find Me a 100 Winner: Two links specialists for the Irish Open

Tommy Fleetwood's links pedigree is a significant asset

Paul Krishnamurty's weekly trading column heads to the Irish Open, where all recent evidence points towards a links specialist from the British Isles...

A mere cursory glance at the list of recent Irish Open champions offers a very strong indicator in that the last six were all from Britain or Ireland. Moreover among the last ten, the only overseas winners were links or bad weather specialists - Thomas Bjorn, Brett Rumford and Michael Campbell. Given the inland links style of this year's Carton House venue plus the fact fairly strong winds are expected throughout, there's every reason for the trend to be maintained.

Both of my picks fit the bill having honed their skills around the classic links layouts on the Lancashire coast. They also both showed eyecatching form last week and are available at the same 130.0129/1 odds. 

Tommy Fleetwood was being tipped for the highest honours almost immediately after turning pro 22 months ago, especially when finishing third at the Dunhill Links. While Tommy hasn't broken through yet in the quite the way some expected, he is making steady progress, missing only one cut since his seasonal debut. He seems certain to win or at least contend strongly sooner or later and a stern links test represents the ideal opportunity.

Likewise Matthew Baldwin's very best form has been on links tracks, finishing fifth in the high-class Scottish Open and 23rd the following week in the Open itself. He'll be disappointed to have dropped away from contention to 18th in Munich - his second costly Sunday in a row - but is clearly in decent nick.

The trading advice is to stake four units in total on the pair, then place lay orders on each at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1. If either hits the first target, we'll triple the initial outlay.

Recommended bets

Back Tommy Fleetwood 2u @ 130.0129/1
Back Matthew Baldwin 2u @ 130.0129/1

Place order to lay both players 12u @ 15.014/1 
Place order to lay both players 20u @ 3.02/1 

Updated 2013 Stats: -8.5 units

Eclipse Stakes: Al Kazeem on target for Ascot

Al Kazeem is set to run in the Eclipse at Sandown

Al Kazeem is to run in the Eclipse on his next start and not the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, trainer Roger Charlton said...

The five-year-old has won on all three starts this season, the last two coming in Group 1 company, most recently in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot last week. He had been thought likely to contest the mid-summer championship back at Ascot next month before being aimed at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

But while Longchamp remains his ultimate aim, Al Kazeem will take a different route to Paris, starting at Sandown on July 6.

Charlton, speaking at Windsor, told At The Races: "The Eclipse is the plan, and after that the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (September 7). It gives him two months off (after the Eclipse), then a month before the Arc. He'll stay at a mile and a quarter (before the Arc). He's going to run in the Eclipse and not the King George."

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Beverley Placepot: Tuesday June 25

Richard Fahey could enjoy a good day at Beverley

Joe Nordoff attempts to follow in the footsteps of colleague Keith Melrose by providing you with a successful Placepot permutation...

14.30- Seven-furlong maidens are not the easiest of puzzles to solve at the best of times, and today's opening contest is no exception. With many of the runners having question marks hanging over them, including the jolly Atlantic Affair, we will side with two against the field in the hope of keeping the favourite out of the money. Chamberlain, who made an encouraging start to his career when third over five furlongs here in April, before being inconvenienced by a wide in a decent maiden at Pontefract last time, again over the minimum trip, is the first horse we will include. His style so far has suggested a step up in trip won't inconvenience and hopefully he can be on the premises. Our second selection is Richard Fahey's recent recruit Shot In The Sun who improved on her two maiden starts when a fast-finishing second at Yarmouth for David Evans last time. The change of yards may just eke out that bit more improvement, and with the stiff uphill finish almost guaranteed to suit, hopefully she can be in the shake-up.  

15.00- It doesn't get any easier in leg two, and once again we side with two runners to try and see us through.  Monsieur Royale has only had six starts in his career to date and whilst he has yet to set the world alight this campaign, he arguably was better than the bare result at Thirsk last time when finishing a respectable fifth from what appeared to be an unfavourable centre position. Ted's Brother is not the most consistent to say the least, but he suggested his turn was not far away when just touched off at that same venue a week ago and is our second selection.

15.30- It becomes a little easier in leg three, and whilst questions are beginning to be asked of Dairam following four seconds on the bounce this season, he is unlikely to find an easier opportunity to open his account. Charlie Hills has hit red-hot form the past few days and hopefully Dairam can keep the run going.

16.00- Plenty of in-form horses in leg four and although only the nine runners go to post it looks crucial to go with two to see us through. Reset City has been in good form of late, winning here and narrowly going down at Brighton last time, and he should give his running again. Whilst Tim Easterby's Arc Light looked to be progressing nicely around this trip before finding one and a half miles at York a bit much to handle, he should benefit from the drop back and some give in the ground. 

16.30- Leg five doesn't get any easier with most of the field proving pretty inconsistent, nevertheless in our bid to keep the lines down we will take a chance that Badea can push us on to the final leg. Richard Fahey's inmate held his form well on the turf last summer, and made an encouraging debut in the context of this race at Haydock earlier this month and should just about be spot on to today.

17.00- Again, another race where a number of horses appear in good heart based on their last runs, yet Attansky gave his biggest hint yet that career win number one was not far away when narrowly denied over C&D last time and with the cheekpieces on to aid his cause, Tim Easterby's charge shouldn't be too far away.

Selections:
14:30- 1, 12
15:00- 3, 10
15:30- 3
16:00- 4, 8
16:30- 2
17:00- 5
= 8 lines

Did you know that you can bet on the Tote from your Betfair account? Click here for our Tote gateway. 

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Ashes Betting: Hiring Darren Lehmann could prove a great move for Australia

Darren Lehmann has been handed the Aussie reins

Ralph Ellis believes Darren Lehmann as poacher-turned-gamekeeper could be just what the Aussies need ahead of this summer's Ashes clash...

Darren Lehmann likes a beer. If you don't want to take my word for it, turn to the Twitter page of the new Australian head coach and read the way he describes himself: "Very old, bald cricketer that loves watching the game. Enjoys having a beer with the general public and all the beautiful things that Australia has to offer."

As if that wasn't enough evidence, then several of the handful of Tweets he's sent out while he's been in charge of his country's 'A' team tour around Britain have been to discuss the best place to get a pint. The very last he sent before leaving home revealed he was toasting his departure with, guess what, a cold beer.

So, to get this right, the sacking of Mickey Arthur and the appointment of Lehmann means the Aussie hierarchy have looked at their dysfunctional touring team, with star players who got in trouble going out late drinking, and put in charge a man who likes a pint. I think the phrase is "poacher-turned-gamekeeper".

The point is, however, that it might just be an inspired move. For if anybody is capable of uniting a dressing room that had become hopelessly divided during the ill-fated 578-day reign of a South African, it is Lehmann. The 43-year-old might be a stereotypical Aussie who could have stepped straight out of a Fosters advert, but he is probably exactly what his country needs now.

Lehmann can't lose. England are as short as 1.182/11 to retain the Ashes, but if that happens it won't be the fault of the former Yorkshire captain as he's taken over with only two weeks to prepare. After all he can't cure Michael Clarke's bad back or instantly give a raw side experience of English wickets. But 
if he can heal the wounds behind the scenes, and inspire some of the younger players to produce their best, then he can go back home a hero.

Lehmann is clearly a talented coach. It isn't just his record winning the IPL with Deccan Chargers, or the Sheffield Shield with Queensland, which says that. England's new star Joe Root believes it was his winter at the Lehmann Academy in Adelaide that made a defining difference to his career. People who have worked with him, from Darren Gough who shared a dressing room at Yorkshire to Jason Gillespie who is over here to follow the Ashes, have all welcomed his appointment and marked him down as a deep thinker on the game.

The biggest difference he can make is behind the closed doors of the dressing room. It's a bit like a football team sacking their manager in the teeth of a relegation fight. All the pressure goes away, all the existing jealousies and cliques that split the team can be forgotten. The players all start with a clean slate to impress their new boss. Though they are the same players, somehow they find something extra.

The greatest impact will be in the First Test - and laying England at even money to win at Trent Bridge could turn into an attractive bet.  At the very least there will be a session or two when Lehmann's side do well and give the chance to turn the market green.

Lay England in the First Test at Trent Bridge at 2.01/1

Michael Vaughan: Powerful New Zealand value to win first T20

Eoin Morgan captains a young England T20 side

England are straight back into action just two days after the heartbreaking Champions Trophy defeat to India and Michael Vaughan believes New Zealand can overpower an inexperienced home side

The defeat to India will hurt those England players for a long time, I can assure you of that. As captain, I lost a Champions Trophy final that we should have won in 2004 (against the West Indies at the Oval) and it still bites at me now.

Those players will have woken up this morning with a horrible feeling; it was such a disappointment for the whole set-up.

You only get opportunities to win global trophies every few years and it was all set up for them. Eoin Morgan and Ravi Bopara had worked out the situation nicely and with 20 runs needed off 15 balls with six in hand, you'd back yourself every time. 

Jos Buttler played a stupid shot and Tim Bresnan got himself in a muddle, but it was up to those that got in to see it through. 

Hopefully this England team will get another chance in 2015, but it's not going to get any easier. This India side are only going to get better for starters, so Alastair Cook and his men will have to knuckle down and go again.

A number of the players who appeared in the final, including Morgan, Bopara and Buttler, won't have any time to wallow, of course, with a two-match T20 series against New Zealand starting on Tuesday night at the Oval.

It's pretty ridiculous scheduling, to be honest, in between the two main events of the summer. It will be as low key as international cricket gets but it's an opportunity for some of the younger players to shine and without any real pressure, we'll hopefully see an entertaining game.

Given the inexperience of the England team (none of the frontline bowling attack; no Pietersen until the second game) and the fact New Zealand have had a few days' rest, I was surprised to see that the hosts are trading as favourites at 1.845/6 with the Kiwis at 2.166/5.

The value is definitely with the tourists; they're a powerful team who are very dangerous in this format and they can easily take the game away in a few overs.

When New Zealand do well, Brendon McCullum is often the key man and I'll back him to tee off and top score for the Kiwis. He is currently trading at 4.03/1. For England, I'll go for captain Eoin Morgan to bounceback from the Edgbaston disappointment and top score. He is available at 5.59/2.

Recommended Bet
Back New Zealand to win at 2.166/5

***

There has been talk of 'panic' in the ranks after Cricket Australia sacked Mickey Arthur and replaced him with Darren Lehmann a couple of weeks before the start of the Ashes, but it was a decision they had to give the team half a chance.

Darren is an Aussie through and through and you'll see a 20% rise in performance levels with him in charge. That's not to say Arthur is a bad coach or a bad man, but there were clearly issues in the camp and this was the only way to clear the slate. England will need to be on their guard, as Australia will be a more competitive outfit going in to the series.

In-Play Hints: Refraction to wave goodbye to rivals?

Timeform examine the pace angles at Brighton

Timeform focus on two handicaps at Brighton, trying to work out which horses will be at an advantage...

Race: 15:45 Brighton- 5f 59yds Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Dorback is unlikely to have an easy time if adopting customary prominent position: The latecoming style of Red Refraction, could prove something of an advantage given the number of identifiable pace-pushers in the line-up.

Individual Price Hint: Monumental Man has traded at more than 2 times BSP twice when winning during its last 5 starts: Red Refraction traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 4 of its last 5 starts.

Race: 17:15 Brighton- 6f 209yds Handicap

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: With no shortage of likely pace-forcers, Wishformore may need to be ridden further back than in its recent starts: The likelihood of an honest pace may tee things up for one coming from further back, with Decent Fella a possible beneficiary.

Individual Price Hint: Ishisoba traded at 10% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP twice on 3 of its last 5 starts: Orders From Rome traded at 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 5 starts.

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Follow The Money: Catch a Dream win at Chepstow this afternoon

Dream Catcher runs at Chepstow this afternoon

Today's Follow the Money comes from the cards at Chepstow and Wolverhampton...

We go to Wolverhampton for our first positive mover where Tom Dascombe's Saga Lout has been backed from 7.62n/a in to 4.57/2 in the 14:45. The assertive gelding stepped up on his course and distance maiden win when scoring off today's mark in a Lingfield handicap in December. Punters seem to be forgiving his recent Kempton disappointment, where he may have pulled too hard, and will be feeling more confident with regular rider Richard Kingscote back in the saddle.

Our negative of the day comes from the 15:45 at Wolverhampton where Bewitchment has drifted from 2.3411/8 out to 3.814/5. The Sir Mark Prescott trained filly failed to win at odds of 4/5 in a five runner Brighton maiden most recently and the form of her second at Kempton in May is not looking too solid. The Godolphin pair, Chord Chart and Wickhambrook look like serious dangers and this well related daughter of Pivotal might have to wait for handicaps before she starts winning.

Our final positive in the Chepstow 17:00 is Henry Candy's Dream Catcher who has been supported from 7.87/1 in to 5.85/1. Connections will be hoping the gelding can race more prominently in this event after failing to feature in his last start at Doncaster. The handicap mark looks fair and if the advertised rain arrives, punters will be feeling confident he can confirm last season's Bath placings with chief market rival Belle Bayardo.

Recommended Bets

Back Saga Lout @ 4.57/2 Wolverhampton 14:45
Lay Bewitchment @ 3.814/5 Wolverhampton 15:45
Back Dream Catcher @ 5.85/1 Chepstow 17:00

Premier League Relegation Odds Tracker: Crystal Palace big faves for drop

This Eagle has flown: Wilfried Zaha

In our first look at 2013/14's relegation odds, Christian Crowther reviews those sides deemed to be in danger...

Crystal Palace 1.574/7
Poor old Palace. Not many observers are giving the play-off winners a chance back in the Premier League following an eight-year exile. And when you look at the evidence against them, it does become quite condemning. The Eagles' previous four seasons in the Promised Land have all ended in demotion, while their best player of the promotion campaign, Wilfried Zaha, has joined Manchester United. It's difficult to see their price lengthening much at all.

Hull 1.748/11
Hull provide a far more tempting lay proposition than Crystal Palace at this stage. Whereas Palace's manager Ian Holloway was unable to keep Blackpool in the top flight in his only other stint as a Premier League manager, the Tigers' boss has a decent track record and plenty of top-flight experience. Steve Bruce kept Birmingham up on three occasions after their 2001/02 promotion and, despite eventually taking them down in 2005/06, it remains his only relegation. If their wealthy owner provides investment, Hull could surprise a few.

Cardiff 3.052/1
Boasting a cast of Premier League proven players among their ranks such as Craig Bellamy and Fraizer Campbell, it's no surprise to see the Championship title winners at the longest odds to return of the three newbies. Their price could lengthen further, but not significantly if they manage to bolster their squad with other big names such as Tom Ince, the subject of much speculation currently. However, Malky Mackay must bring in some experienced defenders to balance the side out if they are to hold their own.

Norwich 3.9n/a
Despite finishing the season with a mini flourish, there's no hiding the fact that Norwich were relegation contenders for the entire second half of the season. Any team which records one win in 16 Premier League games clearly have deficiencies in their squad and Chris Hughton must address them on limited resources. The agreed signing of highly-rated Dutch international Ricky van Wolfswinkel from Sporting Lisbon is a real coup for the Canaries, but the squad needs further improvement. If they start badly, this price will plummet.

Stoke 4.1n/a
In the end, Tony Pulis paid for a bad season at the Britannia Stadium with his head. After a decent start, they steadily got embroiled in the relegation mire and were lucky not get relegated in the end. Mark Hughes takes the reins and has already started the purge, but how he settles in remains to be seen. A good start is imperative after the Welshman's last stint at QPR ended abruptly just a few months into his first full campaign. Don't expect to see the Potters' odds change a huge amount though.

Sunderland 6.25/1
This will be the Black Cats' seventh successive Premier League season but they still don't feel settled, a consequence of continual upheaval both on the pitch and in the dugout. The jury remains out on Paolo Di Canio despite keeping them safe last season because things soured after a brilliant start and he publicly sniped at his players, but he has the backing of the board, who have already announced three signings and a new Italian director of football and chief scout.

Timeform Notebook: Royal Ascot Eyecatcher

My Catch shaped with promise at Ascot on just his second start

Timeform highlight an inexperienced two-year-old that ran well at Royal Ascot and looks sure to improve...

As is so often the case at Ascot in big-field events, the draw played an important part in determining the outcome of the Windsor Castle Stakes as the runners drawn high, racing in the stand-side group, benefitted from having an even pace to chase while the far side group set off too quickly. 

My Catch was perhaps slightly fortunate that he was favourably drawn in stall 18 but he did shape extremely well, looking like a useful prospect. Held up in the early stages by Jamie Spencer - who had chosen to ride My Catch ahead of the eventual winner Extortionist - My Catch travelled as well as anything, making smooth headway on the bridle approaching the final furlong and running on well in the closing stages to finish fifth, beaten less than two lengths.

My Catch entered the Ascot contest as a once-raced maiden having created a good impression when narrowly touched off in a minor event on his debut at Beverley and he certainly enhanced his reputation in the Windsor Castle. He would rate as banker material were he to drop into maiden company, but, such was the promise he showed at Ascot, he would still remain of interest in higher-calibre affairs.

Flat Notebook 2013

There were three Notebook horses in action at Royal Ascot - Cape Peron, Pether's Moon and Loving Spirit - and although none of them managed to win they all performed well enough to suggest that they remain of interest.

Cape Peron shaped better than the bare result in a good renewal of the Britannia Handicap, making smooth headway from a less-than-ideal position two furlongs from home, racing away from the principals. He looked like a real danger as he made his sweeping move but he was unable to sustain the challenge all the way to the line, eventually finishing fifth. Cape Peron remains open to further improvement and should remain competitive in prestigious handicaps, while he still retains the potential to develop into a pattern-class performer.

Pether's Moon simply didn't get the opportunity to confirm the impression that he is a well-handicapped horse as he endured a troubled passage in the King George V Handicap. Richard Hughes was never able to manoeuvre his mount into a challenging position, repeatedly denied a run inside the final couple of furlongs, and it is best to strike a line through the performance.

Loving Spirit had few excuses in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, simply looking not quite good enough on the day, but seven furlongs on firm ground is arguably not a stiff enough test for James Toller's gelding and he appeals as the sort capable of winning one of these competitive Ascot handicaps at a decent price.

Jamaican Bolt - Of interest in five-furlong handicaps with cut in the ground.
Loving Spirit - One to note in seven furlong or one-mile handicaps.
Border Legend - Remains unexposed and one to bear in mind for handicaps.
Galileo Rock - A strong stayer who can make an impact at Group level when the emphasis is on stamina.
Pether's Moon - An unexposed, progressive and well-handicapped three-year-old.
Salford Red Devil - Plenty of promise on debut and overcame unfavourable circumstances to win on second start.
Cape Peron - Progressive three-year-old who didn't harm reputation at Royal Ascot.
Integral - Impressive winner of only start open to plenty of improvement
Mankini - Will be difficult to beat in handicaps over 10 furlongs or further
Glorious Protector - Boasts strong form in maidens and unsuited by steady pace on handicap debut
My Catch - Maiden who travelled very strongly at Royal Ascot 

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Timeform Daily: Tuesday, Newbury 20:35

Newbury plays host to racing on Tuesday.

Timeform assess the field for a fillies' handicap at Newbury on Tuesday evening...

Danat Al Atheer continued upward curve in a hood when leading close home to make it 2 wins from 3 starts in a 1m Haydock handicap on reappearance. Good second at Carlise next time and extra trip expected to suit.

Light Rose is a well-bred filly who created a good impression when justifying favouritism in a 7f Warwick maiden in October. Shaped as if amiss on return but worth another chance.

Movementneverlies confirmed debut promise when winning 7f Wolverhampton maiden in February. Stuck to task when fourth in Windsor handicap last time, and up in trip again.

Everleigh progressed in maidens, winning 7f event at Newmarket in August. Similar form in defeat in handicaps since though stamina looked an issue at this trip last time.

Starlight Symphony won Doncaster maiden last July (7f), and creditable effort on seasonal reappearance there. Not built on that since, stamina looking stretched over this trip last time.

Squeeze My Brain showed promise in all 3 starts as a juvenile and promising third at Sandown on handicap bow, finishing well from the rear. Looks a big player up in trip.

Kenny's Girl showed similar form in maidens all 3 starts this year and improvement required from what looks a stiff opening mark.

Super Cookie won 7f seller at Newmarket in August, and placed in AW nurseries later in the year. Seemed to stay 11f when a fair fifth at Kempton on her reappearance, and heavy ground an excuse since.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Squeeze My Brain
2. Danat Al Atheer
3. Light Rose

Timeform Verdict: Squeeze My Brainlooked one to keep on side when third on handicap bow at Sandown on return and is fancied to get off the mark here. Danat Al Atheer rates as the biggest threat, ahead of Light Rose.

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European Football: Ancelotti looks to bring the good times back to Madrid, while Blanc has much to prove

Carlo Ancelotti has been announced as the new manager of Real Madrid

With the appointment of Carlo Ancelotti, Real Madrid are looking to remove the poisonous atmosphere that has permeated throughout the club. Meanwhile, Laurent Blanc has a lot of doubters to prove wrong as he makes to move to Paris to replace the Italian...

Finally Carlo Ancelotti is coach of Real Madrid. It's been over a month now since he revealed during the French PFA's end of season awards ceremony that he had asked Paris Saint-Germain for permission to leave the club. 

And yet there's a sense that the wait for him at the Bernabeu has been much longer. 

Real Madrid president Florentino Perez has admired Ancelotti for years. He revealed as much in an interview with Marca a fortnight ago. 

"Once I went to Milan and (their chief executive) Adriano Galliani invited me into the dressing room to meet the team and introduce me to Ancelotti," he recalled. 

"I remember that introduction with a lot of affection. (Ancelotti) even gave me a kiss. After him all the players came to say hello and gave me a kiss too. It was very curious. They were like a family." 

That atmosphere is what Perez wants Ancelotti to recreate at Real. There were too many arguments in the White House under Jose Mourinho. Some members of the Real family were no longer speaking to each other. 

This was the risk Perez had taken when he hired Mourinho. Many thought he'd entered into a pact with the devil, that he was prepared to compromise everything Real held sacred if it meant beating Pep Guardiola's Barcelona.

By the end, they could no longer recognise themselves. You got the sense that Real couldn't stand what they'd become. And so, the moment has arrived to go back to their traditions and values. Ancelotti is much more in line with them than Mourinho ever was.

He's affable, funny and doesn't take himself too seriously. He's hard not to like. He even made Chelsea likeable. Rather than seek confrontation, Ancelotti tries to cajole and get along with everyone where and when he can. He's dignified and something of a diplomat. 

That's the image Real want to present to the world again. 

Ancelotti of course has experience working for demanding presidents like Perez and players with big personalities like Cristiano Ronaldo. He's kept Silvio Berlusconi and Roman Abramovich happy, not to mention Didier Drogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

His teams play good football too. 

Remember his Milan with Pirlo, Seedorf, Rui Costa and then Kaka (with whom he'll of course be reunited)? Ancelotti reached three Champions League finals at Milan with them and won the competition twice. 

Landing La Decima, the 10th such trophy, at Real, something that Mourinho was unable to deliver during his three years in Madrid and is therefore considered, by some, to be a failure, represents the Holy Grail to any incoming manager and for Ancelotti it's no different. 

A league champion in three different countries, Real offer the shot at a fourth. Ancelotti ended a 19-year wait for a championship at PSG, and while his time at the Parc des Princes wasn't easy despite the vast amounts of money spent, he'll be a hard act to follow. 

Meanwhile, the appointment of Laurent Blanc as his successor has been described as underwhelming, though that's a touch unfair.

Blanc won the league and cup with Bordeaux in 2009, even reaching the quarter-finals of the Champions League in 2010. At times he got France to play football that was very easy on the eye too and went on a 23-match unbeaten run, which wasn't too shabby at all.  

So why the indifference? 

Well, after reports linked PSG with approaches to high profile managers from Arsene Wenger, Rafa Benitez and Guus Hiddink to Michael Laudrup, AVB, Fabio Capello and Frank Rijkaard, there's a belief that he was a last resort and by the same token a backward step as the club attempt to push on in Europe and hold off the challenge of Monaco at home.  

It's up to Blanc to prove the doubters wrong. 

Real Madrid to win the 2013/14 Champions League - 7.26/1
Paris St Germain to win the 2013/14 Champions League - 24.023/1

Brazil v Uruguay: Prolific hosts to thrill with three again

Brazil are put through their paces in training

The final is tantalisingly close for hosts Brazil as they take on Uruguay in the first semi-final and Christian Crowther expects them to progress...

Brazil v Uruguay, Wednesday 20:00, BBC1, Match Odds: Brazil 1.374/11, Uruguay 9.89/1, The Draw 5.79/2

Luiz Felipe Scolari's current Brazil side may be some way off emulating his World Cup winning class of 2002, but they are certainly on the right trajectory.

The Brazilian players they have performed admirably under intense scrutiny and, when faced with their greatest test to date against Italy, they passed the examination with relative ease in the end.

Built around Barcelona's newest superstar Neymar, there is a growing fluency to Brazil's play and, with attacking full-backs Marcelo and Dani Alves constantly raiding on the flanks, there is plenty for Uruguay to be afraid of.

Largely due to Brazil's omission from the qualifying process, this is actually the first time that the old rivals have met in four years, rendering previous results between the nations a little obsolete.

While some praise ought to be reserved for La Celeste, after turning a corner of sorts themselves at this tournament, their level of performances so far gives little to suggest that they can shock the hosts.

Even though Uruguay possess a few star players such as Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez, a narrow win over Nigeria does not indicate that they possess the necessary threat to tame this Brazil side high on confidence.

Whereas many of the Uruguay's 2011 Copa America winning team are heading into the twilight of their careers, Brazil's star is rising and it will be too bright at Estadio Mineirao.

Brazil Total Goals

Scolari's scholars have been finding the net with ease at this tournament, as was the case in the build up, and they can do the same against Uruguay.

The Samba Boys have averaged exactly three goals per game in their last four matches, notching at least twice in all of their last seven matches.

Half Time Score

Having only let in two goals in their last four outings, Brazil have excelled in taking control of games in the first half.

All three group games have followed the same pattern of taking a 1-0 lead into the break, while all three of the goals that Uruguay have conceded arrived before the oranges were handed out.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Brazil to score three or more goals @ 2.56/4
Back Brazil to lead 1-0 at half time @ 3.613/5

Boxing Betting: Back Golovkin to stop brave Matthew Macklin

Gennady Golovkin is likely to prove too tough for Matthew Macklin

Gennady Golovkin is a fearsome fighter from Kazakhstan and will probably prove too much for Matthew Macklin to handle on Saturday, thinks Alex Steedman...

The boxing world has been rumbling with talk of an unbeatable monster set to wreak havoc upon all and sundry. Gennady Golovkin is that dark, dangerous secret and this weekend, against our very own Matthew Macklin, we find out what all the fuss is about and if Golovkin is indeed the real deal.

Strange then that Macklin is considered the known fighter and Golovkin merely an emerging talent given the unbeaten Kazakh is making the seventh and fifth defences of his IBO and WBA Middleweight titles. Macklin of course has garnered plenty of fans despite coming up short in two previous tilts at the big one. Certainly Macklin was unlucky not to get the verdict over Felix Sturm in Germany in 2011 and he fought on close to even terms until worn down late by the excellent Sergio Martinez last year. That means Macklin 8.615/2 is a genuine test for Golovkin 1.162/13 and a barometer of where he's at.

Golovkin may not have reached the masses yet but he is popular with the boxing scribes as his thunder grows near. His record reads well with an incredible 23 KOs from 26 wins and during that eye-catching run Golovkin has stopped 14 opponents within the first three rounds, including five in round one. Add to that two last round KOs too and you have a guy who is dangerous every single minute of the fight. It is 13 bouts over five years since judges were last employed in a Gennady Golovkin fight, and not many will figure this to go the distance.

The reason world fame has eluded Golovkin so far is simple; he hasn't fought anyone of particular note or that American audiences are familiar with. But two of his last victories have been in the US as K2 (Klitschko brothers) promotions look to build his name stateside. Golovkin has been smashing opponents though and we know he was a stellar amateur with wins over Lucian Bute, Andre Dirrell and current IBF champion Daniel Geale on route to Olympic Silver and World Championship Gold. Golovkin is good, perhaps very good but this is a step up as a professional.

Macklin seems to have been around for an age since his days as a gym-mate of Ricky Hatton and it's nearly seven years since that war with Jamie Moore. Indeed Matthew has been a pro five years longer that Golovkin despite the fact they are both 31; Golovkin is just getting properly started but this is probably Macklin's last tilt at the big time. Expect his performance to reflect that in what promises to be a cracking fight, I think there will be drama and almost certainly knockdowns.

And Macklin can punch as well as fight; remember he took out both Amin Asikainen and last September Joachim Alcine in a round, effectively ending those fights with one punch. It seems to me that Macklin is ridiculously over-priced including 10.09/1 for a win by KO/TKO. Golovkin is talented but he does get hit and despite dominating, always seems to end his fights marked up across the face. If Macklin is able to hit Golovkin regularly then he can hurt him too. Macklin is the underdog but the odds have been exaggerated and this is a fight he can win, if Golovkin gives him a chance

There is a feeling that Macklin fades in his fights as evidenced in the Moore, Sturm and Martinez defeats but he went off at a suicidal pace in the first two and ran into a Hall-of-Famer in the last so that would be harsh. The likelihood is that this fight depends on who lands first or most often if not who has the best chin. We know Macklin can be hurt, we don't know that yet about Golovkin. What we do know is that both can bang and that Macklin will look to put some heat and pressure on Golovkin from the start. I can't wait to watch the drama unfold.

I do believe that the underground hype surrounding Golovkin as well as the spectacular nature of his record has warped the balance of the betting but I also think this is a fight in which he might look spectacular. Macklin will come forward and Golovkin has the ability to counter-punch hard and from all angles. Some of us have been talking up Golovkin for so long it is time now for the man himself to back up that talk. I think he will and I have the ring walk music in mind too; "What's that coming over the hill...is it a monster?"

Recommended Bet

Back Gennady Golovkin to win by KO/TKO at around 1.42/5

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Exuberant youths bring goals

The U20 World Cup will turn your world upside down today

Picking on the smaller kids today

Melgar 0 UTC Cajamarca 0 in Peru yesterday.

OK, but there'll be nothing like that in the U20 World Cup in Turkey today. Five of Australia U20's last seven games have produced Over 2.5 Goals and so have 13/17 El Salvador U20 matches.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.625/8 in Australia U20 v El Salvador U20

England v New Zealand T20 Betting: Kiwis good value to beat inexperienced hosts

Brendon McCullum will probably bat at No 3

Ed Hawkins reckons an inexperienced home side will suffer at the hands of the Kiwis at the Oval on Tuesday

England v New Zealand
Start time: 18.30
TV: live on Sky Sports 1

England
England are back at work this morning after their miserable late night in Birmingham but not all of the players who were involved in the loss to India in the Champions Trophy final will turn up. Eoin Morgan, the captain, Jos Buttler, Ravi Bopara and James Tredwell must raise their games. Big guns James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Steve Finn and Graeme Swann are all rested. Otherwise it is a green-looking squad. There is star talent, though, but not until the second match on Thursday. Kevin Pietersen is included after recovering from his knee injury. He warmed up nicely for his return to the international fold with a brilliant century for Surrey against Yorkshire. Yorkshire's Gary Balance could make his debut.

New Zealand
Unlike the hosts, the Kiwis have selected pretty much their strongest squad available. Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, James Franklin are all there. As is Mitchell McClenaghan, who was joint-top wicket-taker in the Champions Trophy with Anderson. Unlike England, New Zealand have decent pace options. Kyle Mills and Ian Butler provide a wealth of experience. There is no Daniel Vettori, though, who is injured. In his place looking to exploit the English weakness against spin, which India once again exposed, are Ronnie Hira and Nathan McCullum.

First-innings runs
The average score in the last ten T20s at The Oval is 156. But there is no real trend to speak of and scores have been wildly inconsistent. New Zealand, for example, were bowled out for 99 by Pakistan in 2009 while earlier that day South Africa posted 183 against West Indies. There is a 50-50 toss split on the six day-night matches. In England's last match at the venue in 2011 they were bowled out for 88 by West Indies, losing by 25 runs. The weather is not scorching but it's not raining, either.

Match odds
With England 1.804/5 and New Zealand 2.206/5 the odds seem to have been set by folk who reckon England are fielding their strongest XI. We could undertstand the prices if the famed fast-bowling attack was present but not with this job lot. England's bowling looks weak and vulnerable to the power hitting New Zealand have displayed this summer. Jade Dernbach's record is poor while Chris Woakes and Boyd Rankin are unproven.

It should not be forgotten that England beat New Zealand 2-1 in February but Broad and Finn were playing in that series. It was a rare success anyway. Their recent record is not good enough to warrant such prices it appears. England have five defeats in their last nine. New Zealand's record is worse but given that England have just reminded the world of their failings with an abysmal bottle job in a 'T20' in Birmingham, we have no qualms about getting with the Kiwis. They are 3.7511/4 to win the two-match series with England 2.707/4 and the draw 2.3811/8.

Top England runscorer
Michael Lumb and Alex Hales are expected to open the batting and are both priced at 4.30100/30. However, Hales has been in such awful form that Nottinghamshire dropped him from their Championship side. Morgan at 5.509/2 represents better value and it would be a choice between the Irishman and Bopara, who batted well in the Champions Trophy and is likely to be go off at a similar price.

Top New Zealand runscorer
Brendon McCullum, the No 3, and Guptill are tied for jolly status at 4.003/1. Guptill dominated England in the one-day series and also top-scored in the T20 series in New Zealand at the start of the year. Hamish Rutherford and Ross Taylor are hovering around the 4.507/2 mark. Rutherford and Guptill will probably open the batting as they did against Kent in a warm-up when the latter top scored with 56.

Recommended bet
Back New Zealand at 2.206/5

Ryan Moore: A pleasure and a privilege to win for the Queen

The Queen is 'incredibly knowledgeable' about racing, Ryan reveals

One of the undoubted highlights of Royal Ascot week was Ryan Moore and Estimate winning the Gold Cup for the Queen on Thursday. The Betfair ambassador reflects on the victory and 'magical' post race scenes

Earlier in the season, I said in my column that the experience of riding in the Kentucky Derby for the first time was the best day's racing in my life, such was the atmosphere and occasion generated by the 150,000+ crowd, all seemingly consumed by the horse racing, beforehand.
 
Now, I am not getting into comparisons with Estimate winning at Royal Ascot on Thursday - not least because I couldn't, as I wasn't involved in the winning aftermath at Churchill Downs with Lines Of Battle  - but, of course, it was a massive thrill to have won the Gold Cup for the Queen and the post-race scenes were magical.

It was a pleasure and a privilege to be involved. 

Nonsense

But I have heard that some nonsense has been talked and written about my reaction, with apparently people saying that I was showing my emotional and human side on a racecourse for the first time last week.

I guess it is an easy and lazy thing for some to say, given the way I operate on a racecourse. Namely, that I view it is as primarily a place of work and people shouldn't lose sight of that. It's why I don't do talks in boxes or the like before racing (sorry Betfair!) because I don't want to short-change my employers. 

I would rather spend my time after I get to the track walking the course or making sure that I know as much as I can about the others horses in the races.

And Estimate's win on Thursday went exactly to plan. We had the draw, and she had the temperament, class and determination to take advantage of it.

Magnitude

Don't think for one moment that I didn't know or appreciate the magnitude of the win as soon as I went past the line in front. It was a fantastic day, one that I will never forget, and of course I was elated.

I have ridden big race winners for the Queen before (Estimate in the Queen's Vase last year and Carlton House in the Dante) but this was clearly on another level, not least because it was the Gold Cup and a Group 1 win.

And the best part of the day for me is when I was walking back in front of the stands after the race. I looked up, gave the Queen a wave, and she waved back. That was a very special moment.

Leveller

I will tell you something now, however. The thing with racing is it is a fantastic leveller, you are only 30 minutes away from the next success or failure and disappointment.

You only have to look at the Hardwicke to see that. One moment the horse has won the race, the next it is dead on the floor.

And you don't need me to tell you that how perilous the game is for jockeys, too; we saw that with Paul's narrow escape on Ektihaam in the same race.

In such a dangerous game as ours, we have to keep our mind on the job at all times and keep focused. Enjoy the moment, but then move on to the next one quickly.

We have to. It is why I don't get carried away when I win, or too down when I lose, though some people may beg to differ on the last point! There is no time to dwell upon success or failure in a sport when your next job is 30 minutes away. Very few other sportsmen operate in the way jockeys do.

Joy

That said, it was a massive joy to win on Estimate. 

Now, I am not going to disclose what The Queen said afterwards - it is not my place to - but I can tell you she is incredibly knowledgeable about the sport.

She knows the formbook, and the intricacies of stallions and bloodlines, inside out and I dare say that she is already planning who to send Estimate to. She is a great forward-thinker and planner and the passion she generated after the win was very real indeed. You could see the joy and emotion in her face and hear it in her words, too. The sport is simply very fortunate to have her as a supporter.

But, I have probably said too much already, so I will leave it there. 

Home and Away: Mexico looking to spice things up in Group D

Larje-Angereds have stormed to the top of the Swedish Second Division

Jonno Turner takes us to Sweden and Turkey for his two tips today...

We're taking a trip to Sweden for our first pick of the day - and Division Two, as Larje-Angereds travel to Lindome, looking to extend their lead at the top of the table.

The visitors have been in impressive form so far this campaign, and are unbeaten in their opening 11 outings of the season - having won seven and drawn four.

And the Blasebovallen side's dominance is underlined by the fact that they have shipped just seven goals so far, with four consecutive clean sheets indicating that their defence has played a key part in their rise to pole position.

The Gothenburg side are in good form on the road, and have not lost in six outings away from their own patch - with five wins during that time standing them in good stead to take maximum points from this clash.

Hosts Lindome line up for this clash sitting seventh in the table, following a mixed start to the new campaign.

Just three wins from eight outings will have knocked confidence down at the Lindevi IP, and, although Conny Winge's side are on a decent run of results at home, winning seven on the bounce - they have conceded in all but one of those games, and I reckon that the visitors are likely to be presented with a chance or two here.

Larje-Angereds have won the last two meetings between these sides - smashing eight goals in the process, and conceding just two. I fancy them to secure another victory here.

Bet 1: Larje-Angereds (AWAY) @ 1.82

Over to Turkey now for our final selection of the day - and it's a South American affair in the U20 World Cup, as Mexico take on Paraguay in Gaziantep.

The Mexicans are in formidable form ahead of this clash, and have won eight of their last nine outings going into this encounter - securing five clean sheets from their last seven.

And boss Sergio Almaguer will be keen for his side to bounce back from an opening day defeat to Greece in this tournament - and this game provides the perfect opportunity to do so, against a side which has won just two from six outside of their home country.

Paraguay have won just two of their last five ahead of this game, and are certainly low on momentum as they aim to secure their place in the knockout stages of this tournament.

A win is a must for both of these sides if they are to keep their dreams of qualification from Group D alive, but just two clean sheets from 12 for Victor Genes' side suggests that they have weaknesses at the back which could cost them dearly here.

I reckon this one will be a tight affair - but Mexico are good value to take all three points, given the form they have schown recently in the lead up to this competition.

Bet 2: Mexico U20 (HOME) @ 2.02

Wimbledon Women's Betting: Watson to be last Brit standing

Can Watson beat Keys and progress to the second round?

Fresh from two winning selections on Day 1 at Wimbledon 2013, Abelson Info are back to preview Tuesday's action from the All England Club...

World number one and defending champion Serena Williams gets proceedings underway on Centre Court on Tuesday, and the American should have little to worry about ahead of her clash with Mandy Minella.

Ranked 92nd in the world, Minella has suffered the misfortune of being paired with Williams, and given her opponent is on a 31-game winning streak, it promises to be a difficult afternoon's work for the Luxembourgian.

The same can be said for Yvonne Meusburger, who will look to produce the second big shock of the tournament thus far when she faces last year's finalist Agnieszka Radwanska.

Sara Errani was the early casualty on Day 1, but it is unlikely that the fourth seed will suffer the same fate, and she should be joined by a whole host of other top seeds looking to progress beyond the first round.

However, there are various intriguing clashes on Tuesday, not least a pair of matches that will be of particular interest to the home faithful.

British hopeful Laura Robson will take to the No.1 Court hoping to spring a real surprise when she faces tenth seed Maria Kirilenko.

The Russian reached the quarter-finals last year as she continues to improve on grass, and she had a decent run to the third round at Eastbourne last week.

In contrast, Robson fell at the second hurdle at the same venue, having already suffered a similar fate in Birmingham the week before. Nevertheless, she has proven in her career to date that she is more than capable of pulling off a surprise against a top seed, and will be hoping to do the same here.

It is a similar scenario for Heather Watson, who arguably has the less difficult assignment. Madison Keys had a fine run to the last eight at the Aegon Classic a fortnight ago, while Watson is still on the comeback trail having missed a big part of the year with glandular fever.

However, these two are separated by just four places in the world rankings, and if Watson can dig deep and use the home support to her advantage, she should have enough to see off her 18-year-old opponent.

Fresh from her tournament win in Birmingham, Daniela Hantuchova will be in buoyant mood ahead of her clash with Klara Zakopalova despite her opponent's superior world ranking.

Two other matches that stand out in tomorrow's order of play are Sabine Lisicki's meeting with Francesca Schiavone, and Angelique Kerber facing Bethanie Mattek Sands.

The Italian won her only meeting with Lisicki, but expect the German to savour the prospect of being on grass, while Kerber will be looking to pick up her first win against her American rival in three attempts.

Recommended Bets

Back Watson to beat Keys @ 2.427/5
Back Hantuchova to beat Zakopalova 2-0 @ 2.245/4
Back Lisicki -3.5 games vs Schiavone @ 1.814/5

ICC Champions Trophy Final: England v India

Cook can end England's wait

India are favourites for Sunday's showdown but Ed Hawkins, who has four winners from five Champions Trophy match bets, is adamant that the hosts are fantastic value to claim the title at Edgbaston

England v India
Start time: 10.30BST
TV: live on Sky Sports

England
England have waited a long time to win their first ICC 50-over event. And this represents their best chance. England last made the final in 2004 at The Oval against West Indies but this time with their bowling attack buzzing, at a ground they always do well and against an sub-continent side, they will more than fancy it. It would appear the hosts have found form at the right time. Alastair Cook's side crushed South Africa in the semi-final and looked to be approaching full throttle in the 'quarter-final' against New Zealand. England have selection issues to ponder. Steven Finn and James Tredwell, solid and superb respectively, against South Africa are not certain of their places. Tim Bresnan is available again after he missed the last-four contest to be at the birth of his child while Graeme Swann has a calf problem. It would make sense if England retained the status quo. Finn's pace and bounce can cause India problems while Tredwell claimed 3-19 against the Proteas.

India
India have fielded the same XI in the four matches so far. That consistency in selection has been rewarded with fine performances. Every side they have come across they have given a good beating. West Indies, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, in Thursday's semi-final, have all been thumped by eight wickets. In their first game a 26-run margin over South Africa looks close but India still amassed 331. Even in the warm-ups they were brutal as they toyed with Sri Lanka and then humiliated Australia by 243 runs. It is a struggle to remember an India one-day side so ruthless and reliable. Shikhar Dhawan is the star with the bat. He has been out only once as he has piled on 332 runs. With the ball Ishant Sharma looks to be finally living up to his potential while spin duo Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja have 16 wickets between them.

First-innings runs
England like batting first in Birmingham. On four of the last five ocassions they have made hay: 269 v Australia, 281 v India, 328 v West Indies and 347 v Bangladesh. The average first-innings score in the last 14 ODI at the ground is 234. Indeed it would be a surprise if we saw a high-scoring contest as throughout the tournament, largely, the bowlers have held sway. From the four matches England were the only ones to breach 250. The weather forecast is poor with showers forecast and this only adds to the belief that it will be a final decided by the bowlers.

Match odds
India are 1.834/5 favourites for glory with England 2.186/5. We do not agree with those odds at all. And there are a whole stack of reasons why. For a start, England routinely give India a beating on their own patch, just as India do when they are at home. It is nine wins in the last ten years against India and only four losses. Then there is the Edgbaston factor. With a win-loss ratio of 1.90, only at Old Trafford are they more dominant. They have won eight of their last nine matches, roared on by vociferous support. Punters should also be aware that India are yet to be tested against a bowling attack with nous in seam and swing conditions. South Africa would have given them an examination but Dale Steyn was not fit. It is possible that a batting line-up which is inexperienced in these conditions against good operators won't know what has hit them. What is most important to recognise, however, is that the final will be won by the team which makes best use of effective bowling conditions. Or to put it another way, whoever wins the toss and then inserts under leaden skies. Let's say both batting sides are as vulnerable as each other then, agreed? So it becomes a 50-50 call. So there is no way England should be so big. If you did not get on when we advised England at 6.806/1 wo win the title, then don't miss out. Be aware that in the event of a washout, the final will be decided by a Super Over. If it is too wet for that, honours will be shared.

Top England runscorer
Jonathan Trott, who will go off at 4.507/2, has a fine record on his home ground. With 153 runs in two innings he will feel top dog. And he is in great nick after his half-century guided England against South Africa and solidified his position at the top of their run charts. A tight technique is required for this contest and Trott fits the bill once more. Joe Root, also durable, catches the eye if you can get near to 6.005/1.

Top India runscorer
A problem for India is that their middle- to lower-order has seen precious little action. If they bat first they will surely be needed to buckle down. Dhawan is too short at 3.3512/5 and a lay might be the order of the day because we reckon an England swinger has his number. Better still lay him for a 50 at around 3.505/2 if you can get on. MS Dhoni, who has good knowledge of the variations of English pitches, may be the man to come to the rescue lower down and he appeals at 8.007/1.

Recommended bets
Jonathan Trott top England runscorer at 4.507/2
MS Dhoni top India runscorer at 8.007/1
Lay Shikhar Dhawan for a 50 at 3.505/2 or better

Italy v Brazil: Neymar to navigate hosts clear of Spain

Neymar is the toast of Brazilian football right now

This promises to be the tie of the tournament so far as Christian Crowther attempts to pick a winner and offers some accompanying bets...

Italy v Brazil, Saturday 20:00, BBC3, Match Odds: Italy 5.49/2, Brazil 1.748/11, The Draw 4.03/1 

With both these sides recording consecutive victories to ensure progression from Group A this fixture represents a straight shoot-out for group supremacy.

Nevertheless, Brazil's superior goal difference means the hosts can afford to draw and stay at the summit.

The prize for topping the group will in all probability be swerving World Cup champions Spain in the semi-finals, so Italy will be very much focused on victory.

However, this remains no easy task against the host nation whose affinity for this competition is unrivalled. In defeating Mexico 2-0the Selecao broke a tournament record for the most successive wins, making it nine, while they've not tasted defeat in ten matches since losing to the Mexicans eight years ago.

Brazil's latest win over Mexico was efficient, if not thrilling, but that can be partly attributed to the stifling mid-afternoon heat in Fortaleza which clearly wasn't conducive to all-out attack.  

Whereas the hosts have not been breached in 180 minutes, a more concerning feature of their play for Azzurri coach Cesare Prandelli is the four goals conceded across just two matches. 

Though Italy's comeback against Japan was admirable, Brazil in this form are unlikely to be as charitable, as they showed in that 3-0 opening victory over the same opposition. 

With the greater onus on the Italians to attack, this Neymar-inspired Brazil outfit have the tools to pick off their European visitors on the counter and extend their winning record.

First Goalscorer

Yet to be tested in Europe's top leagues (though that's about to change for Barcelona's new boy), Neymar has been busy silencing the doubters in this competition. He's opened the scoring on both occasions for the Samba Boys and has been the stand-out performer in a yellow shirt, mixing sublime skill with an eye for goal. There's not much to suggest he can't continue that trend here.

Both Teams To Score

Although this Brazilian side are yet to concede, the Italians' appetite for goals has matched that of their affection for olive oil in their opening fixtures. Led by the maverick marksman Mario Balotelli, this Azzurri side are shaking off their safety-first stereotype under Prandelli's guidance and look like scoring regularly; having averaged just over two-goals per game in their last seven.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Neymar to score first @ 6.3n/a
Back both teams to score @ 1.8810/11

The Joker's Bet of the Day: Deportivo just don't Quito

They're all agreed - Deportivo to win

Black and blues to suffer hell of a beating at the Olimpico Atahualpa

Syrianska 2 Malmo 3 last night.

Osman Sow scored the third goal, reaping rich reward for the Joker.

In Ecuador - yep, you can be pretty sure this is a first - Deportivo Quito have won 7/9 home games this year and Independiente have lost 5/9 on the road.

Recommended Bet: Back Deportivo Quito @ 1.758/11 to beat Independiente

Royal Ascot SmartPlays: Thursday June 20

Remote can win the Tercentenary for John Gosden

Following Al Kazeem's win on Wednesday, Timeform bring you another three selections at Royal Ascot...

Ribblesdale Stakes - Alive Alive Oh

Alive Alive Oh is bred to be useful and she shaped with real promise on her sole start as a two-year-old, finishing third behind subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas winner Magician, but it is her performances this campaign that has seen her reputation grow, and she can land an intriguing renewal of the Ribblesdale Stakes at 15:05.

Sent off as an odds-on favourite on her return at Cork, Alive Alive Oh had little trouble shedding the maiden tag, sauntering clear of inferior rivals having travelled strong on the bridle throughout. The ease of that win earned Alive Alive Oh a crack at a higher level and she once again proved a class apart, justifying strong market support to win the listed Salsabil Stakes by six lengths. The way in which she loomed menacingly up to her rivals hard on the bridle marked her down as a filly potentially out of the top drawer and it is worth siding with the rapidly-improving three-year-old to take this Group 2 contest.

Ascot Gold Cup - Estimate

The Ascot Gold Cup (15:45) is arguably the feature race of the entire meeting and it has attracted a large field with 18 runners set to go to post. Plenty of the contenders have questions to answer, however, and it could be worth siding with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Estimate who appeals as a filly likely to relish the demands of the race.

A half-sister to Gold Cup winner Enzeli, Estimate has shown improved form each time she has stepped up in trip and she produced an accomplished performance in the Sagaro Stakes on her sole start this term, staying on strongly to land the Group 3 event. The fact she seems like a straightforward, tactically versatile type is an obvious positive in such a large field and in Ryan Moore she can rely on the services of a rider at the top of his game.

Estimate does have a bit of improvement to find but she remains lightly raced for a stayer and has been brought along steadily by her highly-respected connections, the early part of her season clearly built around peaking for this one day.

Tercentenary Stakes - Remote

Our final SmartPlay runs in the penultimate race on the card as we believe that Remote can rattle up his third win in succession by landing the Tercentenary Stakes at 17:00. John Gosden's colt didn't make it to the track as a juvenile but he has quickly made up for lost time, improving on a promising debut third at Pontefract to win a strong Newbury maiden before destroying his rivals in a seemingly-competitive handicap at Doncaster.

Remote was dropping back to a mile at Doncaster but he still showed plenty of speed, travelling powerfully before quickening clear by six lengths, looking value for even further. The horse back in second on that occasion, Baltic Knight, has since won a listed race at York and there is a feeling that the Doncaster race will turn out to be quite a strong bit of form.
 
Remote is obviously still open to plenty of improvement and, with the step back up to ten furlongs likely to suit, he should go extremely close to registering his first pattern-level win.

Timeform UK SmartPlays:
All at Royal Ascot

Back Alive Alive Oh in the 15:05
Back Estimate in the 15:45
Back Remote in the 17:00

Royal Ascot Special Offer: Visit timeform.com and get up to 40 free credit. We'll treble your first deposit!

In-Play Hints: Garswood to fly late

Richard Fahey: Trainer of Garswood.

Timeform assess the In-Play angles for two races on the second day of Royal Ascot...

Race: 14:30 Ascot - Jersey Stakes

Pace Forecast: Strongly contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Of those forecasted with a better chance, Mutin and Music Master could be the most susceptible in a race in which competition for the lead looks plentiful: Such a hotly-contested pace as is on the cards here may be to the benefit of Ninjago and Garswood who tend to come from behind.

Individual Price Hint: Dont Bother Me traded at 10% or less of BSP, 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 3 of its last 5 starts: Parliament Square traded at 25% or less of BSP and 50% or less of BSP on 2 of its last 5 starts.

Short Priced Hint: Gale Force Ten traded at a low of 5.70 and BSP of 8.94 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

Race: 16:25 Ascot - Royal Hunt Cup

Pace Forecast: Contested.

Specific Pace Hint: Spa's Dancer is unlikely to have an easy time if adopting customary prominent position: The latecoming style of Field Of Dream, could prove something of an advantage given the number of identifiable pace-pushers in the line-up.

Individual Price Hint: Educate traded at more than 5 times BSP and 2 times BSP when winning on 2 of its last 5 starts: Don't Call Me traded at 10% or less of BSP 3 times on its last 5 starts.

Royal Ascot Special Offer: Visit timeform.com and get up to 40 free credit. We'll treble your first deposit!

Sectional Debrief: Royal Ascot, Saturday June 22

Society Rock comes out of the Diamond Jubilee with credit

Simon Rowlands looks at some of the big races on the final day of Royal Ascot 2013...

A significant advantage of expressing closing sectional speeds as a % of average race speeds is that it enables quick and intuitive comparisons across different distances, tracks and even goings. Thus it is that, despite quite a bit of rain having fallen on the final day of Royal Ascot, meaningful conclusions can readily be made.

The sectionals were slower on Saturday in absolute terms than they had been earlier in the week, but then the overall times were slower, too, on ground that had eased. More importantly, the sectionals also tell us that the main two events, the Hardwicke Stakes over 12 furlongs and the Diamond Jubilee Stakes over six furlongs, produced results that can pretty much be taken as read. 

None of the runners in the Hardwicke ran far from par for the last three furlongs given their overall times. The 1.0 sec difference in sectionals between Dandino and Universal would have counted for more had the runners not run pretty efficiently overall. Dandino ran a bit quicker late on than par, Universal ran a bit slower: it probably made little difference. 

Similar comments apply to the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. Lethal Force ran almost bang on par in making all, but won well enough to suggest he was comfortably best in the race even so. Society Rock ran the closing sectional fastest, but not to such a degree, nor against a big enough pace bias, to mark him up more than a little. The only significant mark-ups were for horses that weakened quickly from prominence to finish among the also-rans. 

They may not be very exciting conclusions, but "what you see is what you get" (WYSIWYG) is sometimes necessary. There have been plenty of other standout performances on sectionals highlighted in these debriefs this week.

The time of the Wokingham Handicap 40 minutes after the Diamond Jubilee was 0.43 sec slower, with the winner York Glory carrying 2 lb less. This is much what you would expect the difference to be given the calibre of horses involved. Only Glass Office (fifth and fifth) and Gabriel's Lad (first and ninth) were in the first nine at the sectional and still in the first nine at the line. But estimated sectionals suggest they were not definitely disadvantaged by racing close up, while York Glory came home the best part of a second quicker than Lethal Force had. 

The Duke of Edinburgh Handicap was run in a time only 0.65 sec slower than the Hardwicke, and that despite a slightly steadier pace early, which reflects well on the principals in the handicap. The winner, Opinion, turned in with just two ahead of him and led fully two furlongs out - posting a sectional of about 36.5 sec - whereas runner-up Stencive was about five lengths further back on the turn and only two lengths down at the line. The latter gets the bigger mark-up and could well have a good handicap at this distance or a bit shorter in him yet. Stencive is added to the "to follow" list.   

Timeform US SmartPlays: Friday June 21

Timeform's US team advise three bets for tonight's action...

Finger Lakes race 1 (17:35 BST) win back #1 EMINENT TALE at 3.613/5 or longer

Louisiana Downs race 10 (23:16 BST) win back #4 CAJUN EXPECTATION at 3.02/1 or longer

Penn National race 4 (00:22 BST) win lay #7 BEATNIK at 3.613/5 or shorter   

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