Michael Vaughan: Uncertain forecast and good pitch means draw is the play

Cook's men need to improve on their winter showing in New Zealand

An exciting summer of Test cricket begins this week as England take on New Zealand at Lord's in the first of a two-match series. They are odds-on to win at HQ, but Betfair ambassador Michael Vaughan believes that the draw is the value bet. Betfair trader Paul Krishnamurty, meanwhile, believes the visitors are worth a trade at a big price

After what was a disappointing series for England in New Zealand, drawing 0-0, the team would have sat down and been honest with each other.

They have not played well since the impressive performance in India and will want to get back to playing a brand of cricket they will be happy with.

And they need to start by beating this New Zealand side on home soil. I don't think it was a case of underestimating the Kiwis during the winter, but England came out too gung-ho in at least two of the Tests and ended up having to chase the game. They will have learnt a lesson from that.

There won't be too many changes to the teams we saw over the winter, but I'd go with Tim Bresnan in place of Steven Finn in the home attack. Finn has been struggling with his run-up again and hasn't bowled particularly well for Middlesex early in the season, while Bresnan looks in good nick. If the ball is nibbling around a bit, the Yorkshireman is a perfect man to have in the attack. And, of course, he solidifies that lower middle order.

I expect England to nick the series, but the vital win might not come at Lord's. The forecast isn't great at the moment and the pitch is a belter. There might be a bit of movement but it will be slow and you'd expect both batting line-ups to be able to pile the runs on. We've already seen Middlesex score 500 in the second innings here this season in their match against Surrey.

If rain takes a day-and-a-half out of the game, then the 2.68/5 or so on the draw begins to look very attractive, even if just as a back-to-lay.

With this in mind, and with a short series, it's worth having a look at the Series Score market as well. If you can get around 5.59/2 on the 0-0 it will be worth the trade as that price will obviously come in if it's looking like a draw at Lord's.

In the top batsman markets, I'd lean towards Jonathan Trott for England - currently trading at 5.04/1 -  as he loves playing at Lord's and Kane Williamson for the Kiwis, available at 5.04/1. He's a very tidy player.

The Betfair's Trader's View: Paul Krishnamurty

The principal question ahead of this series is that, having failed to deliver at odds-on in all three tests away to New Zealand, can England be trusted at home against the same opposition? For my money, the answer is clearly not and the best trading sense is to take them on at 1.87. Given the appalling weather that has covered England for months, I can see why Michael is keen to to trade the draw at 2.56 but don't forget that eight of the last nine Lord's Tests have produced results. In any case, there's every chance that cloud cover will actually help the bowlers and make a result likelier.

At whopping pre-match odds of 14.0, New Zealand rate the best value option. They seem to be improving under Brendon McCullum's leadership and, unlike most away teams, start on an equal footing to the hosts with regards match practice and suitability for conditions.

Should New Zealand win the toss and/or get the better of the opening exchanges, it shouldn't be too hard to lay back at less than half of these initial odds.