The Punter's In-Play Blog: Phil the Thrill hits 60 in Phoenix

Phil Mickelson reacts to his near miss for a 59

It's been a tough 24 hours for our man, as his favourite player, Phil Michelson, blasts to the front in Phoenix and the wind doesn't blow as hard as expected in Dubai...

11:15 - February 1, 2013
It's fair to say that things haven't quite panned-out as I'd have liked them to have done over the last 24 hours. They're still playing round two at the Dubai Desert Classic but the morning was clearly not as brutally difficult as the weather forecast had suggested it would be and one of my in-running trades, Manny Manassero appears to know I'm on - he's one of the very few to be over par today, but the main reason for being at a low ebb this morning, is that man Phil Mickelson.

Before yesterday, the big story in the world of golf this week had been Vijay Singh's deer antler spray habit but Phil Mickelson did the big Fijian a favour by diverting the world's attention when he came this close to shooting 59 at the WM Phoenix Open.

Regular readers will know I'm a huge Lefty fan and they'll probably be wondering why I haven't backed him this week, having done so the last two weeks. Well, it's a question I've been asking myself, repeatedly! The truth is, I very nearly did back him and I'm furious with myself for not doing so but here's why I didn't.

Firstly, I'm sorry to say I was influenced in some small part by a comment made on my blog last week, when a chap named Paul wrote this.

"Picking Phil every time he tee's it up is getting to predictable,now you are doubling you wager on him,Why.It's ok having a favourite player and backing him for a interest but your looking for any reason and trying to convince the readers of this blog that it's a smart play."

I received very similar, perfectly understandable, comments this time last year but thankfully I stuck to my guns then and was rewarded when Phil won next week's event, the AT & T National. His record at this time of year has been phenomenal over the years and indeed, if he wins this week, it will be his third victory in Phoenix. So why aren't I on! I can't cowardly just blame Paul, not when there were a number of reasons for his omission...

I was disappointed by his performance last week and in particular, his first round. I missed the big early prices, matched on Sunday and Monday. I wrote last week how badly Lefty drifts each week on a Wednesday and was waiting for said drift but unfortunately, it simply didn't materialise this week. I did wonder whether Old Father Time was taking its toll and finally, I thought if I did want to get on, I could always do so in-running.

So why aren't I on in-running? This tale of woe does actually get worse! I did back him in-running, at an average of 8.615/2, but when he missed form six feet for birdie on the 15th hole, his sixth of the round, I decided to lay the wager back and see how he fared on the 16th.

How did he fare on the 16th? He drained his birdie from 16 feet and the rest, as they say, is history. Suffice to say it's a good job I don't have a cat.

In the cold light of the next day, I can be slightly more philosophical about it all, or should that be Philosophical, but I do feel miffed. I'm going to let the event roll for now and see what happens today. Lefty leads by four over a bunch of five and he now trades at just 3.39/4. If he carries on as he did yesterday the rest won't see him for Arizona desert dust but the stats are against him. The last first round leader to win was Tom Lehman in 2000.

I'll be back later with a look at the Dubai Desert Classic at the close of play.

11:45 - January 31, 2013
There really should be a specific word for that desperately disappointing feeling you get when you first look at a leaderboard on a Thursday morning, only to see that your pre-event picks have spectacularly underperformed.

What made it even more irritating today, was that I knew that my three at the Dubai Desert Classic, Shane Lowry, Ben Curtis and Berndt Wiesberger all had the best of the draw, and not one of them had capitalised on it. There was no time to sulk though, the event was already taking shape and one man, Richard Sterne, was shaping it...

The diminutive South African has had more than his fair share of injuries and he wasn't on my radar this week but I've got him onside now. And I've also already backed Matteo Manassero.

The afternoon starters are trying their best to close in on the early starters and Alex Noren is catching the eye but even if he keeps going and gets close to Sterne and co, the draw looks set to scupper his chances. It's a dangerous game, putting too much faith in the weather forecast but if it's correct and if it doesn't change between now and tomorrow, those playing now and therefore out early tomorrow, look to be considerably disadvantaged.

With the wind due to blow at up to around 20 mph, with gusts getting close to 30mph, tomorrow morning, before dropping again in the afternoon, concentrating on those safely in the house now and not due to start until the worst of the weather has passed by tomorrow, makes plenty of sense.

Although I managed to get Sterne onside at an average of 17.016/1 this morning, and I'm happy to keep that wager for now, I'm not convinced he's the man to beat. Four of the last eight winners were all in front after round one, so that bodes well for Sterne, but he's opened up with a round in the 60's in each of his last five visits to the Emirates and on the last four occasions he didn't break 70 in any round after. Not such a good sign.

Lee Westwood and a resurgent Paul Casey are right up there, as are Scott Jamieson and Stephen Gallagher (highlighted brilliantly by Simon in the comments section of the preview) but the one I like is Manassero.

Westwood has a lot of new kit in the bag this week and whilst he's started well, can he trust it all under the cosh? Casey hasn't convinced in-contention since returning from injury and I can't see why he's so much shorter than Manassero, on the same score. Jamieson likes it here and looks to be back in form but he was poor with a five-stroke lead in Durban and I'm happy to leave him out at the price, whilst Gallagher is never one to trust in the mix.

Of course, the forecast could change considerably but if stays like it is, I can see those starting out later tomorrow having a big advantage. We'll see.

They've not started at the WM Phoenix Open yet and I've worked very hard at not adding to the portfolio but failed. Those to the fore (Rickie Fowler, Brandt Snedeker, Nick Watney and Martin Kaymer in particular) look short to me and as a result, there seems an awful lot of value further down the list.

I've pressed my Mark Wilson wager and I've also added Y.E Yang at 170.0169/1. Hopefully I can resist until the off now but if I do add any more, I'll be sure to post them here.

Dubai Desert Classic Pre-Event Selections:
Ben Curtis @ 70.069/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ an average of 70.069/1
Shane Lowry @ 75.074/1

In-Play Bets
Richard Sterne @ 17.016/1
Matteo Manassero @ 21.020/1

WM Phoenix Open Pre-Event Selections:
Jonas Blixt @ 120.0119/1
Ben Crane @ 150.0149/1
Charley Hoffman @ 160.0159/1
Y.E Yang @ 170.0169/1 - added after the preview was posted
Mark Wilson @ 170.0169/1 @ again @ 200.0199/1
Graham DeLaet @ 190.0189/1

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