Welsh National Preview: A breakthrough for Curtis or Longsdon?

The Balding/Carson double act will be no more from 2013

As Keith Melrose bemoans one BBC, he recommends another- Back Becky & Charlie- in the Welsh National.

I'll get on to telling you what will win the Welsh National in a minute, but first please indulge me this:

Whatever your own memories of Grandstand, they almost can't help but be positive ones. Mine are pretty much par for the course: Saturday afternoons as a teenager, watching myriad sports with my dad. The show has, of course, gone the way of all wood- partly down to the BBC being unable to match the financial clout of privately-funded broadcasters and partly down to the apparent (and rather self-fulfilling) perception that all the everyman wants these days is football. 

This lament over sporting days passed has some timely significance, as on the 27th of December the BBC will broadcast horseracing for the last time, officially until 2017 but, if we're being realistic, for the foreseeable future. Although Channel 4's greater commitment to covering racing is to be applauded, it'll still be sad to see another sport disappear from publicly-funded television.

The subject of this final broadcast will be Chepstow's biggest meeting of the year, headed by the Welsh National, in which the horses normally go as slowly as you feel after the wanton excess of Christmas and Boxing Day. It's a race which requires abundant stamina and, usually, an ability to handle the most testing of conditions. A prominent early position also tends to be helpful, probably deriving from a combination of the two aforementioned factors. 

All of the above came into line for Le Beau Bai last year as he and Giles Cross dominated, the pair clear from quite a way out and finishing 15 lengths clear of anything else. Assuming similar conditions prevail this time around, Le Beau Bai can be expected to run well again, though he's now 8 lb higher and probably got a better-judged ride than either of the placed horses (Cappa Bleu was third) last year, so a price of about 9.08/1 doesn't really inspire.

The only horse currently ahead of Le Beau Bai in the betting is Teaforthree, trained in Wales by Rebecca Curtis. He was among the better novices in 2011/12, winning twice over three miles here (beat Restless Harry and Cannington Brook on the first occasion) before landing the four-miler at the Festival. That run makes particular appeal with this race in mind, as it's exactly the way you picture a Welsh National being won- with a bold-jumping, gritty performance from the front. Connections have made little secret that this race is Teaforthree's main target, certainly this side of a potential shot at the Grand National in April, and accordingly he's shaped well on both starts so far this season, shaping as though he's being gradually brought to the boil.

Fifth to Teaforthree in the four-miler was Alfie Spinner, who mightn't be as lightly raced as some but still leaves the impression we've yet to see the best of him. The feeling is that a long distance in bad ground is exactly what Alfie Spinner needs and this is the perfect race for him to find such a test. He's experienced at this course (broke his maiden over fences on this card last year) and is generally a good jumper, just suffering a rare mishap in the Hennessy last time. He's technically out of the handicap as present but if, as reported, top-weight Tidal Bay goes to Ireland instead, the weights will go up 9 lb.

Off the same mark as Alfie Spinner, the unexposed Universal Soldier looks every bit as interesting under this sort of test. A seven-year-old in his second season over fences, Universal Soldier put up his best performances last term when winning on soft ground at Towcester and then when outpaced on good ground in the four-miler at the Festival. Testing conditions seem key to him, as he showed when second to the progressive Quartz de Thaix at Haydock over three miles last month. Given the way Universal Soldier shaped that day, this longer trip can only suit and, with his mark raised by just 1 lb, he could still be well in for what will be just his second start in handicap chases.

Looking at the field as a whole, this is unlikely to be the highest-quality Welsh National ever staged (there's a real possibility that the top weight on the day will be rated 148 by the BHA, the lowest since 2002), but it's as competitive as you'd expect. Teaforthree piqued the interest of Timeform's reporters after his reappearance, but it turns out we weren't alone as his price quite rightly places him as the likeliest winner. 

It's recommended that you keep Teaforthree onside whatever you do, though there also looks to be value available in the form of Universal Soldier. He seems to be just the sort of horse required to win a Welsh National- a stout-staying mudlark who potentially has quite a bit of mileage left as a handicapper. Taking both will give you the best chance of enjoying a grandstand finish to racing on the BBC.

Recommendations:

Back Teaforthree @ 6.25/1 and Universal Soldier @ 19.5n/a in the Welsh National

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