The Punter's In-Play Blog: Clinical Kaymer poised to convert

Martin Kaymer – Can he win the Nedbank?

Steve surveys the scene at Sun City, where he fancies third round leader, Martin Kaymer, to get the job done. Whilst in the States, McDowell leads the way by three strokes at the World Challenge but Steve's not so keen on his chances...

17:10 - December 1, 2012

After adopting the Sky Plus tactics again for round three of the Nedbank Challenge, betting in-running wasn't really an option but after much deliberation, I have played again now, albeit very modestly.

It looks to involve six players now, with Martin Kaymer, on -5, leading Louis Oosthuizen by one and Charl Schwartzel by two. Bill Haas and my man, Lee Westwood, are three back and halfway leader, Paul Lawrie, after a disappointing third round 75, trails by four.

Kaymer has a very good record when leading through 54 holes and he looks the one to beat. He's been in front after round three eight times on the European and Challenge Tours and he's converted on seven occasions. 

Second favourite and closest rival Louis trails by one, a scenario he's found himself in four times worldwide. Once in the States, at this year's WGC Bridgestone Invitational, where he finished 4th, twice on the European Tour, at the 2010 Scandinavian Masters, where he was also 4th, and prior to that he finished second at the 2009 Qatar Masters. Interestingly, the only time he converted was here at Sun City, in the 2007 Dimension Data Pro-Am.  I've repeatedly stated that I don't trust Louis in the mix and for my money there should be a bigger disparity between the market leaders.

Charl Schwartzel is in cracking form and has to be considered a danger but he hasn't won in a long while now and this is a bigger deal for the South Africans than it is for the overseas players and, as it may do with Louis too, the pressure might tell.

I haven't completely given up on Westwood but on the evidence of his play to date, he isn't playing anywhere near well enough to win. Tomorrows a different day I guess but I can't see it. 

I'd written in the preview about how tough it is for debutantes and it's proving the case again this year. Of the five that teed it up on Thursday, Bill Haas is the only one to have any sort of chance with a round to go. He trades at 17.5n/a, half the price of the only other man in the reckoning, Paul Lawrie.

I'm kicking myself for not taking a chance on Graeme McDowell at the World Challenge, as he now leads by three at the halfway stage. He didn't play well in Dubai last week but said afterwards that he was no fan of the venue. The same can't be said of Sherwood, where he boasts a win and a second place finish from just two starts and I should have ignored last week's effort out of hand. Oh well.

G-Mac leads by three, from three, Bo Van Pelt, Jim Furyk and Keegan Bradley, with my man, Tiger Woods, a further shot back in 5th.  

Although I regret not taking the now obviously generous pre-event odds, I'm in no rush to get with the Irishman at just 3.3512/5 with so long to go. Tiger finished his second round tardily yesterday, after tying for the lead at one point, but I'm still hopeful and for now I'm sticking with what I've got.

16:40 - November 30, 2012

I really don't like to moan (that's a lie, I love it) but the coverage of the Nedbank Challenge really is something else. It is absolutely unwatchable. 

Despite the fact that there are only 12 competitors, the odds on the audience getting to see more than two consecutive shots by the same player are astronomical. The coverage jumps around from one group to another with seemingly neither rhyme nor reason, and the shots that are shown are all random. Occasionally the cameraman manages to follow the flight of the ball but half the time you just have to guess where it's landed!

To make matters worse, I fancy the assorted commentators, who by and large are appalling (you know they're bad when you're relieved to hear Sam Torrance and Ewan Murray back at the mike!), have no idea what's going on either, as they never fill you in on what's happened, you just have to wait for an infrequent scoreboard update! I stuck it out live for about an hour yesterday but that was all I could muster and I watched the remainder on Sky Plus as fast as I could.  

Leaving the dire coverage aside, I can't say the halfway leaderboard provides me with much cheer either, with last week's pick, Paul Lawrie, leading the way on -4, one clear of Martin Kaymer, three ahead of Bill Haas, Francesco Molinari, Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel and four shots ahead of this week's pre-event selection, Lee Westwood - who, on the evidence of what little I've seen so far, is struggling with every aspect of his game. 

Martin Kaymer now heads what is a very tight market at 4.216/5, with Lawrie just a fraction bigger. Oosthuizen is trading as third best but caution is advised there as the South African was unwell today with a stomach bug. He may well feel better tomorrow but he didn't look great at all and, if you pardon the pun, it may have taken a lot out of him. 

I'm going to leave the event alone for now and see what tomorrow brings. I'll be hoping Westwood can repeat last year's third round, when he shot 62 to pull clear, but I'm not confident.

Over at the World Challenge, I'm happy enough with the start of my only selection, Tiger Woods, who sits three shots off the early pace, set by Nick Watney. Tiger looked a bit rusty with his irons at times but what was really encouraging was the lengthy par saves he made. When Tiger was at his peak you could almost give him a ten-footer for par and he made at least three from around that distance yesterday. 

Hopefully he'll have knocked the rust off now and I can hope for a bit better this evening because if Watney picks up from where he left off (birdied four of the last six holes) he'll need to get his skates on.

I haven't done anything here in-running as yet either but I guess when you start the week by backing the two favourites, that's understandable. 

Nedbank Challenge Selection:
Lee Westwood @ 5.04/1

In-Play Bet
Martin Kaymer @ 2.915/8

World Challenge Selection:
Tiger Woods @ 4.03/1

* You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter