The Big Match Tactical View: PSG v Porto

Zlatan Ibrahimovic will drop into deep positions to create chances

Both have qualified, but first place in the group is up for grabs - Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle.

PSG v Porto, Tuesday 7:45, Sky Sports (red button)

Match odds: PSG 2.285/4, Porto 3.55/2, The Draw 3.55/2.

As expected when the draw was made, Paris Saint-Germain and FC Porto have qualified from Group A with relative ease. Both are assured of their place in the knockout stages, and the final group game has effectively become a play-off for first place, which should ensure an easier draw for the second round. PSG have home advantage, but Porto lead the group by a point, and a draw would confirm their first position.

The reverse fixture between the two was a clash of styles, with Porto triumphing 1-0 at the Estadio Dragao. Vitor Pereira's side played with their usual 4-3-3 and great natural width, while Carlo Ancelotti selected a 4-3-2-1 formation that dominated the centre of the pitch - and therefore possession - but struggled to create genuine chances.

The situation has changed since then, because Zlatan Ibrahimovic's role has altered. From being a pure number nine at the start of his PSG career, he's dropped deeper to become their most creative player in Europe, collecting five assists in his last two Champions League games. He moves towards the play and depends upon the two 'playmakers' behind him to make direct runs towards goal. 

In those two positions, despite the shock 2-1 defeat to Nice at the weekend, Ancelotti will probably stick with Ezequiel Lavezzi and Jeremy Menez behind Ibrahimovic - they were excellent as a trio against Dinamo Zagreb in PSG's previous European match at the Parc des Princes. Javier Pastore is off-form, and Nene hasn't reached the heights of last season.

The area between Porto's defence and midfield, with Ibrahimovic dropping short and two players bombing on, will be a key battlezone. Porto will need a solid, reliable holding player sitting in front of the defence - which means Pereira is likely to select Fernando in that role, rather than Steven Defour, who has started the last two matches. 

At the other end, Pereira will remember how successfully Porto worked the left of the pitch in the reverse fixture, with both Silvestre Varela and substitute Christian Atsu causing problems. Right-back is an area of weakness for PSG - Christophe Jallet is something of a relic from the pre-Qatar era, and the signing of Dutchman Gregory van der Wiel was supposed to fix the problem, but he hasn't looked particularly comfortable either. Jallet's probably the better bet, but either way PSG can be vulnerable to quick wingers, because the narrowness of the midfield simply gives the full-backs no support.

I feel PSG are underpriced for this match - they're rightly favourites, but 2.285/4 in Match Odds is low considering their poor recent run of form, Ancelotti's increasingly unstable position, and their poor display against Porto back in September. They're well worth opposing at that price, as Porto are perfectly suited to counter-attacking down the flanks, while the guile of Joao Moutinho will allow them to cool the tempo of the game. It's also impossible to ignore the fact Porto are unbeaten in all competitions this season, a record they'll be determined to preserve in Paris.

I'm also interested in the Corners Match Bet market; Porto will play with more width, and have won 26 corners so far in the Champions League compared to PSG's 19. That said, expect the home side to dominate possession and have more shots, which makes it a tricky market to call. This should be relatively evenly-matched, so I'll recommend laying PSG in this market, too, if they're available at evens or shorter.

Recommended bets:
Lay PSG in Match Odds at 2.285/4
Lay PSG in Corners Match Bet at 2.01/1