Nedbank Challenge Tips: Oosthuizen is due a change of luck

Returning to his homeland could spark a change of luck for consistent Louis Oosthuizen

With no big-priced outsiders available in either event this week, Paul Krishnamurty's regular Find Me a 100 Winner column takes a short break. Instead, he argues that the nature of these small field events points towards the obvious...

Rory McIlroy's sensational five-birdie finish to win the Race to Dubai finale may seem like an apt moment to end a memorable golfing year, but there is plenty of action left for punters. In fact these final few weeks are anything but the 'silly season', regularly offering good value, reliable punting options.

Sadly there is no Find Me a 100 Winner column this week because there are no golfers available at those inflated odds in either of the two limited field events, which is probably a good job as the name of the game around this time of year tends to involve backing the blindlingly obvious.
Indeed, favourite backers have repeatedly mopped up in the World Challenge and are doubtless licking their lips at the prospect of backing Tiger Woods at around 4.03/1 to win his own tournament, for the fourth time in his last five attempts.

Given that he's only once ever missed the top-two at Sherwood, I wouldn't deter anyone from backing Tiger, but still much prefer the Nedbank Challenge as a punting heat. Steve Rawlings has written an excellent detailed preview and while ultimately our headline selection differs, there is very little disagreement between us. Quite simply, this long-established 12-man invitational has been one of the most predictable contests in the history of golf betting. Outsiders simply don't win it and more specifically, nor do course debutants. 

We have to go back to the earliest renewals during the 1980s to find winners without previous experience of this Sun City layout. None of the last ten champions had played the course less than twice previously. Unless that solid trend fails to stand up, we can instantly eliminate half of the line-up from calculations. Peter Hanson, Nicolas Colsaerts, Bill Haas and Carl Pettersson are all making their debuts, while Martin Kaymer and rank outsider Garth Mulroy have only played Sun City once. Paul Lawrie and Francesco Molinari have both played it twice, and comprehensively failed both times.

By employing that basic process elimination, we can therefore reduce the shortlist to the following four potential winners. Lee Westwood has dominated the last two renewals and understandably starts at 5.39/2 favourite for the hat-trick. Bang-in-form Justin Rose has plenty of form in South Africa, the country where he grew up, and was runner-up here back in 2007. World-class home stars Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel have vast experience of Sun City, either in this event or the Data Dimension Pro-Am on the Sunshine Tour. It must be said, however, that Schwartzel's repeat failures even in that weak pro-am suggest this is far from his ideal track.

So which of the top-three to pick? I can see Steve's logic that Westwood's course form is beyond comparison, but just can't bring myself to back him on recent form. Both Rose and Oosthuizen have been considerably superior in recent weeks and much more consistent. Rose has been arguably the best iron player on the planet this summer, regularly topping the greens in regulation stats. Sunday's brilliant 62 bodes extremely well, as does that 2007 effort here, when he really should have won. On the downside, two subsequent appearances in this event both resulted in heavy defeats. 

Which leaves Louis, who won the Dimension Data in 2010 and on two of his last three homeland appearances. Oosthuizen has been virtually impossible to keep out of contention since the beginning of August, registering eight top-six finishes including all of his last five events. Maintaining that level of form will at minimum cement a place among the leading group, that usually distance themselves from the rest around this layout. Although some of his recent performances in contention raise question marks about his temperament, the former Open champion is certainly overdue a change of luck. He won't get a better chance.

Recommended Bet

Back Louis Oosthuizen to win the Nedbank Challenge 5u @ 5.95/1