India v England Betting: England's unexpected three-way dilemma

Stuart Broad could be on the way out, but should he be?

England have issues over Stuart Broad's form, but is Steven Finn really the man to replace him? Richard O'Hagan considers the situation and throws a third hat into the ring.

England's selection issues have dominated the British cricket press in the past few days. Steven Finn's performance in the Academy games has been minutely analysed. So has Stuart Broad's bowling in the Mumbai Test. There is a keen sense that it is a straight choice between the two of them as James Anderson's new ball partner come

That Broad's place is under threat is no secret. Bowling coach David Saker damned him with faint praise as 'not great, yet'. Finn, on the other hand, has the ability to extract pace and bounce even from docile pitches, has had a reasonable year when fit and called upon and seems to have at least curbed his habit of kicking the stumps in his delivery stride. With each day that passes the murmurings that one should replace the other become louder.

This is slightly unfair on Broad, for whom 2012 has been arguably his best year with the ball, with his average fractionally below his career one of 31.93 and including his Test best of 7-72. His failure to take a wicket on this tour yet is a concern, but the current speculation may well be more due to him being slightly less well thought of by the press than some of his more media-friendly colleagues. Finn, meanwhile, has been less successful than at other times in his career, with an everage of 32.00 compared to a career one of 28.15 and no five wicket performaces, either.

There is, however, another element to be considered. Almost unheralded, James Tredwell, the Kent captain and off-spinner, arrived in India yesterday. Ostensibly, he is there as cover in case either Graeme Swann or Monty Panesar fall ill or are injured. Don't believe a word of it. We here at Betfair flagged up Tredwell's omission from the original party as odd and with India not being afraid to go into games with three spinners there is no reason for England not to consider doing so as well. Tredwell won his Test cap as partner for Swann in Bangladesh and his figures of 6-181 suggest that he can take wickets on the sub-continent (including twice dismissing Shakib Al Hasan). He is also a much better bat than Finn (his career average of 22.63 comparing favourably with Broad's of 24.26), which whether you like it or not is going to be a consideration in a side which will already include Anderson and Panesar, and a decent slip fielder. Given that Anderson and Broad bowled only overs between them in Mumbai, the case for including Tredwell seems more compelling than that for including Finn.

That picture then becomes less clear when you consider the nature of the Kolkata pitch. England have only won there once before, way back in 1977 when John Lever was making the ball behave like the then-fashionable swingball. By contrast, India have won both of their recent games at Eden Gardens, beating both South Africa and the West Indies by an innings. In the first of those games Harbhajan Singh and Amit Mishra shared 12 wickets, in the second it was Pragyan Ohja and Ravichandaran Ashwin taking ten between them. That suggests a fair balance between pace and seam until you factor in that their opponents each played only one front line spinner and that those spinners took precisely one wicket each. In the meantime India notched up seven centuries and a combined total of 1274/15, never losing more than seven wickets in an innings. There's clearly an advantage to a dual spin attack, but no evidence that a three pronged one is essential. England will be as aware of these statistics as anyone, so expect Broad to play.

Those Indian totals suggest that big individual scores are possible on this pitch. The man with form is Indian captain MS Dhoni, who has made hundreds in each of his last two innings at Eden Gardens. Look to back him at 6.25/1 in the 'any other batsman' category of the leading India batsman market. And it is a sign of how bad Sachin Tendulkar's recent form has been that he is the 7.06/1 outsider in that market.

On the England side Alastair Cook and Kevin Pietersen are the favourites to make tons, but don't overlook Jonathan Trott at 6.411/2. He has had a poor series so far but, like the other two, is rarely far from a big score.

Recommended Bet:

Back MS Dhoni @ 6.25/1 in the 'any other batsman' category to be India's leading run scorer.