The Betfair Contrarian: Why Denmark won't win the Eurovision Song Contest

Emmelie de Forest will sing 'Only Teardrops' for Denmark

The Betfair Contrarian tells us why strong favourites Denmark won't win this Saturday's Eurovision Song Contest...

As far as the intercontinental singing competition scene goes, it doesn't get much more emotional than the Eurovision Song Contest. This year all the pre-match hype surrounds Denmark's entry - "Only Teardrops" - ahead of the big night in Malmo on May 18th. However, renowned Eurovision analyst the Contrarian enjoys nothing more than watching a big, fat favourite register "nul pwan" and he's predicting a Danish dressing room ankle deep in teardrops once those points are in.

Here's why the Contrarian will be opposing the heavy favourites at 1.9110/11.

The Danish entry is actually pretty bad

Let's be honest, the benchmark for victory is rarely set that high in the "Contest". And 20-year-old undisputed favourite Emmelie de Forest does little to restore credibility to the much-derided event. She may be a beauty but that doesn't mask a song with obvious limitations. The lyrics are inane, live instrumentation consists of two drummers and a tin whistler, and the chorus could have been dreamt up in a minute flat. The young lady can't be faulted for her own lung-busting efforts, but this song's utter lack of sophistication shouldn't tax even the most simple minded voters' ability to control themselves.

Poor previous form

Unlike host and Eurovision royalty Sweden, with five previous competition wins, neighbours Denmark have not nailed regular victories. Danish glory last arrived courtesy of the Olsen Brothers with "Smuk som et stjerneskud" in the competition's millennium edition, ending a 37-year wait following their only other previous triumph back in 1963. Interestingly, that particular victory arrived courtesy of another family-based duet, Grether and Jorgen Ingmann (with "Dansevise" or "Dancing Tune"). Apart from following up that victory with a runner-up spot the next year, the Danes have since failed to make much impression on the leaderboard. Three times they have even failed at the semi-final stage, and they've not made it anywhere close to the podium in the subsequent years either. Last year's entry saw another young female solo singer flying the flag - she ended up in 23rd out of the 26 nations in the final.

Norway's entry is the queen of divas

It's interesting to see most of the heavyweights in the betting this year coming from countries with solo female singers representing. Aside from the Ukraine who in their wisdom have sent forth a solo male vocalist - currently rated at 13.012/1 in the winners market - this year's contest looks like turning into a diva fest. Including the Danish, four of the other top five nations will have females flexing their vocal chords. Of that quartet, Norway's singer/songwriter Margaret Berger with 'I Feed You My Love' is by far the most likely to scoop the coveted prize. This girl has stage presence to combine with some really intoxicating vocals. This song is by far the most modern and engaging and mercifully lacking in gimmickry, leading some to draw comparisons with her Nordic counterpart Bjork.

There is no neighbourly love-in

Just because Denmark's last triumph followed that of hosts Sweden, some observers have been quick to link that experience to this year's edition. Not so fast, trend seekers. There is no evidence to suggest this favouritism has got anything to do with a sudden penchant for Scandinavian music in the contest. Results over the years (even when the fix has appeared to have "been in") have steered free of geographical domination. Aside from a distinctly French flurry in the early days (they won three times in five years between 1958 and 1962 ­- then the Beatles happened), the winners have been dotted around the continent.