Sectional Debrief: Newmarket, May 5

Simon Rowlands has analysed the sectional times at Newmarket

Simon Rowlands analyses the sectional times on 1000 Guineas Day at Newmarket...

Sectional analysis can apply to all types of racing - good and bad, Flat and jumps - but it inevitably receives much more attention in the aftermath of a big race. Hence, people have already started picking over the figures from Sunday's 1000 Guineas, for which TurfTrax provided electronic sectionals as part of the QIPCO British Champion Series. 

As the table above shows, the finishing speed of all of the principals was faster than par, compared to their overall race times, and faster than all bar Kazzia's among historical winners used for comparison. The race was not run at a strong gallop, but it was not run at a crawl (such as would be reflected by a figure of 110% or more) either. 

Importantly, while there are sectional mark-ups for this year's race, they are small: Sky Lantern gets 2 lb extra and fifth-placed Snow Queen gets the biggest mark-up with 4 lb. The best horse on the day probably won. 

Third-placed Moth remains promising after just four runs, and has justifiably shortened for the Oaks (run over a distance that should suit her very well). But the figures show that Sky Lantern ran faster than her for each of the last two furlongs, contrary to what has been suggested in some quarters. 

Fourth-placed Winning Express (who raced prominently and led briefly around 1f out) ran her race most efficiently, and, along with the winner, upheld the form of the Nell Gwyn on the course in April. So, it must be asked "what happened to the winner of that race, Hot Snap (only ninth when favourite on Sunday)?"

The Nell Gwyn had been run at a stronger pace, but not to the degree that should have made such a difference, especially as the 1000 Guineas is at a furlong further. The ground was also firmer (times were in the region of 30 lb quicker) on this occasion. Perhaps it's just one of those things: it is certainly too soon to be crabbing the form of the earlier race. 

Elsewhere at Newmarket, there was surprisingly little to get excited about from a sectional point of view. Most of the races were run fairly close to optimum for the distance, standard of horses and prevailing conditions. In particular, Hamza's front-running win in the 6f handicap was a masterpiece of pace judgement by Neil Callan. Smartly away, Hamza had enough in reserve to run two of the last three furlongs quickest in the field. Not only stiffer tasks but more competitive pace scenarios presumably await. 

The most interesting race in terms of sectionals was the 2-y-o contest won by Green Door. The overall time is good for the grade and yet all of the runners came home more quickly than might be expected. Sectional mark-ups suggest Green Door was a worthy winner but that others could have run him fairly close another day. Third-placed Nathr (86 sectional rating) and fifth-placed Crowdmania (80 sectional rating) shaped particularly well. 

To follow: Nathr and Crowdmania
To oppose: Hamza     
 
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