Sectional Debrief: Monday May 20 Update

Simon Rowlands has been busy taking sectional times

Simon Rowlands provides you with an update as to how his horses to follow have been getting on...

The recent absence of all-weather meetings at Kempton - the preferred course for taking individual sectionals by-hand - and of tracks covered by TurfTrax as part of the British Champion Series means there has not been a sectional debrief for a while. So this is perhaps a good time to look back over the last five weeks to gauge how things have gone and what we have learned. 

The sectional debrief "to follow" horses hit the ground running with a 7.19 Betfair SP winner in Spillway. Winners at 3.49 (Fig Roll) and 3.62 (Eshtiaal) followed not long after, but it has been tougher going of late. Two runners in the French classics put a small dent in the profit (though both Zurigha and Bright Strike ran above their previous form in defeat), as did good seconds from Hillstar and Knight Owl.
 
Nonetheless, just over a month in, a level-stake investment on "to follow" and "to oppose" horses (the former backed with 1 point, the latter laid to lose the same) has resulted in 8 successful bets from 16 for a profit of 3.65 at Betfair SP before commission, which is +22.8% return on investment. 

The intention is that horses get knocked off the list once they have run, but that means some promising types are going to be missed simply because they have not cropped up in subsequent sectional debriefs. Therefore, this is also a good opportunity to identify that the following should be retained on the "to follow" list despite recent defeats: Toronado, Hillstar and Bapak Sayang. 

It is not clear what went wrong with Toronado in the 2000 Guineas, though it is at least possible that he would not have beaten Dawn Approach even at his best. But his Craven win - in terms of both form (second and third have run even better since) and sectionals - identifies him as much better than he showed in the first colt's classic. Keep the faith. 

Hillstar seems to be very highly regarded, and we may not get much of a price about him even if he does win, but he probably did well again when second at Newbury on Saturday, having ended up leading and refused to settle.
 
Bapak Sayang is in danger of becoming a "follow over a cliff" horse, but he again shaped better than the result when a front-running eighth at Newmarket on Saturday. Individual sectionals give him the biggest mark-up of all in the first dozen and he was not beaten far. A slightly softer race and 5f or 6f could yet see him oblige.

Newmarket staged three consecutive days of racing last week, for which the headline sectionals are as follows:
 
 

It has not been possible to drill down into all of those results, but I will endeavour to do so if anyone wishes to identify possibly promising sectional performances in those races in the comments section below. 

One race that did catch the eye was the 10f maiden on Thursday won by Elkaayed. The sectional mark-ups were quite substantial from 3f out, with the winner and second Arab Spring rating into the 90s. However, the fourth home Demonic may be an even better "to follow" horse overall. 

Demonic posted an 87 sectional when third to Improvisation in a really interesting maiden on this course previously (see earlier sectional debrief) and an 84 one here despite getting caught out when the pace quickened sharply. A later sectional estimate in Thursday's race has Demonic finishing quickest of all and running into the 90s himself. A maiden surely must come Demonic's way before long, and he could yet be the useful performer his breeding and background suggests he could be. 

Another for the list is Llaregyb, winner of the mile handicap on Friday. He recorded a decent overall time in a four-length victory despite running in a far from optimum fashion due to a steady early pace. A sectional rating of 95 suggests he should have something in hand even when reassessed.

"To follow" horse Loucal runs in the 2:10 at Redcar today and looks set to go well.

Current lists of horses: 

"to follow":
Kiyoshi, Toronado, Hillstar, Red Rocker, Dark Templar, Ree's Rascal, Bright Glow, Loucal, Nathr, Crowdmania, Bapak Sayang, Singersongwriter, Tajheez, Demonic, Llaregyb

"to oppose":
 Ajraam, Foxhaven, Hamza, Universal, Claude Greenwood, Edgware Road, Tagalaka 

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