Preakness Stakes Preview: Orb set to follow up?

Can the Kentucky Derby hero land the Preakness?

The second leg of the US Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes, takes place this Saturday at Pimlico (off 23:20 BST), with only eight runners up against Orb in his bid to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. Timeform's Graeme North assesses the field...

Five of those who finished behind Orb at Churchill Downs - Mylute (5th), Oxbow (6th), Will Take Charge (8th), Itsmyluckyday (15th) and Goldencents (17th) - take him on again, so what are the chances of one or more of them reversing the form? 

On the face of it, not very high. Orb is clear top on Timeform ratings on 124 (followed by Itsmyluckyday on 121, Goldencents on 120, Mylute on 119 and Oxbow on 118) and history reveals that since 1970 Derby winners in the Preakness have won at a strike rate of 40% and finished in the first three 75% of the time. 

If there is one type of Derby winner potentially vulnerable at Pimlico, however, it is, according to a thread on the PaceAdvanatge.com forum which reveals their Preakness strike rate is only around 20%, the 'deep closer' who was still in the back half of the field after six furlongs at Churchill. Orb falls into that category on his Derby run - he had only two behind him at that point - but it would be wrong to label him as an out-and-out closer. 

Sure, he employed similar tactics when running down the now-retired Violence in the strongly-run Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February, but he raced handily close to a steady pace in the Florida Derby which he won readily from Itsmyluckyday. In another respect, too, Orb is extremely versatile being equally at home on fast dirt or slop, and the small drop in distance at Pimlico - the race is half a furlong shorter than the Derby - won't inconvenience him. Despite the probability of a very different pace scenario to the Derby, Orb is still by some way the most likely winner.
  
The Derby was run at something akin to a suicidal pace - 22.57 for the first quarter and 45.33 for the half - as first-time blinkered Palace Malice blazed off almost uncontrollably it seemed, pursued by Verrazano, Vyjack, Goldencents and Oxbow. 

As such, it's to Oxbow's great credit, then, that he emerged easily the best of the quintet up there early, only really dropping out of the scrap for the minor places in the last furlong. The magnitude of that effort has rather escaped the Morning Line compilers who have priced him up at 15-1 and on that run he makes more appeal than the never-dangerous pair Mylute or Will Take Charge given he's likely to get an ideal stalking trip. 

Of the others in the Derby reopposing, Itsmyluckyday has now been beaten twice running fair and square by Orb and doesn't seem in the same form as at Gulfstream in January, but Goldencents can't be dismissed so easily and it's something of a surprise that he's fourth choice on the Morning Line.

As we mentioned in our piece on the Kentucky Derby, Goldencents went into that race top-rated on speed figures by our TimeformUS partners on account of his win in the Santa Anita Derby, but he seemed ill at ease in the slop chasing the pace and the fact he was by far the earliest of the five leaders beaten suggests it was more than the pace of the race that was responsible for his defeat. 

Goldencents showed in the Santa Anita Derby, where he settled better than previously, that he's just as effective stalking the pace as making it himself, and the shorter distance at Pimlico will be in his favour. In some respects he's still unexposed and he could prove hard to catch if getting his own way in front, with only rank outsider Titletown Five seemingly likely to challenge him for the lead.  

Departing is the most interesting of the trio that didn't run in the Derby. He finished in the frame in the Louisiana Derby alongside the Derby second and third Golden Soul and Revolutionary as well as Mylute and then overcame a tricky outside draw in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne last time to win going away from a bunch of second-raters. Even so, it's something of a surprise to see him second favourite on the Morning Line. 

Govenor Charlie represents Bob Baffert. Like Departing, he's been progressing steadily at a slightly lower level, drawing clear to win the Sunland Derby last time, but that form has been let down since and the fact he missed the Derby and was only confirmed a runner here at the last minute doesn't engender much confidence.

Recommended Bets:
0.5 pt win Oxbow and 0.5pt win Goldencents at the Morning Line prices of 15-1 and 8-1 respectively

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