Michael Vaughan: Back-to-lay the draw on flat Headlingley wicket

Joe Root has already hit a double hundred at Headlingley this season

A superb performance from messrs Broad and Anderson blew New Zealand away at Lord's, but Yorkshire have piled on the runs at Headlingley this season and Michael Vaughan is trading the draw at an attractive price. Cricket trader Paul Krishnamurty, meanwhile, will be keeping a close eye on the forecast

Well, I didn't see that result coming in the First Test! I've never see a Lord's pitch look like that.

I spoke to the groundsman before the game and he said it would be flat, but it looked to me like it was left a little soft, probably to bring Graeme Swann in to the game, with one eye on the Ashes. If the pitch is soft the ball can grab with the seam, leading to uneven bounce and late movement, which is so hard to play.

But let's not take anything away from what was a special bowling performance from Jimmy Anderson and, in particular, Stuart Broad.

Broad is often criticised for blowing hot and cold, but I'm fully expecting him to become more consistent now that he is older and able to manage his body better.

When he is fit and strong and bowling with zip, Broad is able to hit those fuller lengths more effectively. When he is not quite fit those full deliveries becoming loopy and easy to whack, so you can see why he has tended to bang it in short of a length.

You can't underestimate how much injuries affect your performance, but they are hard to manage when you are young. Anderson was just as inconsistent when he was first on the scene, but as he has got older he has learnt to manage his body and has become the bowler we see today as a result. I'm expecting Broad to do the same.

Steven Finn, on the other hand, stuck out like a sore thumb. Not getting a bowl on that final day was an indictment on his performance. But I'd like England to stick with him for the Second Test; he can only find form by bowling. There's a decent argument for replacing Finn with Tim Bresnan, but whereas you can bank on Bresnan to deliver a consistent performance, you get the impression England are hoping to find something extra from Finn. He deserves another chance.

As for New Zealand, there will be enforced changes with Bruce Martin definitely out and BJ Watling a serious doubt. But it could work in their favour adding strength to the batting, as Daniel Vettori can come in as the spin option with Martin Guptill replacing Watling (with Brendon McCullum taking the gloves).

The Kiwis will be at a low ebb after being skittled for under 100 for the second time in six Tests and you worry that, if they lose a couple of quick wickets, the gremlins will return and they could collapse again.

But Headingley is one of the best pitches in the country - Yorkshire have already scored 650-plus this season - so the draw price of 3.1511/5 looks an attractive one to trade. The weather forecast isn't too bad but, unlike at Lord's, there aren't any lights at Headingley so they will be off is there is any bad light. Look to lay at between 2.01/1 and 2.56/4.

Looking at the Top Batsman markets, and I like the look of local boy Joe Root at a decent price of 6.05/1. He was in good nick at Lord's and has already scored a double hundred in Leeds this season.

Kane Williamson looks to be the only Kiwi with a decent defence, but I'll take a chance on McCullum teeing off and back him to top score at 5.04/1.

Recommended Bets:
Back-to-lay the draw at 3.1511/5
Back Joe Root to be Top England 1st Inns Bat at 6.05/1

The Betfair's Trader's View: Paul Krishnamurty

The most important variable to understand when trading a Test match at Headingley is the effect of overhead conditions. With cloud cover, this ground is usually a swing bowling paradise but when the sun comes out, batsmen tend to make hay. Depending on which scenario prevails, a par total can range anywhere between 200 and 600, which makes pre-toss assumptions extremely risky.

Take England's penultimate match there, during the 2009 Ashes series. The form book pointed strongly towards a home win, yet winning the toss amidst favourable conditions enabled Australia to skittle England out for just 102 first up. So while the evidence from Lords suggests England should win this series 2-0, odds of just 1.68 make little appeal at this early stage. Lest we forget, they drifted from odds-on to around 5.0 before getting the better of New Zealand, whilst the visitors shortened from 15.0 to 4.0 over the first two days.

Something similar could easily happen if they get lucky with the toss and overhead conditions, so I'll again be opening my book with a small back-to-lay on New Zealand at 11.0. After that, follow the weather. If it's sunny, back the batting side. If cloudy, back the bowlers.