IPL Betting: Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians

Tendulkar is set to return

Ed Hawkins, who has 12 winners from 17 tips so far, has his eye on the runs market for Tuesday's qualifier which will see the winner go straight through to the final.

Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians
Start time: 15.30BST
TV: live on ITV4

Chennai Super Kings
Chennai finished top of the points table. They bristled with power and had the air of a team which could win when they want. Indeed, sometimes they looked disinterested. That won't be a problem at the business end. What might be is history. They are aiming to become the first team in five years to finish top and still lift the trophy. That is the sort of stat, however, a punter can become obsessed by and can probably be dismissed as a quirk. Chennai have alreay won the whole thing twice so that stat is the more pertinent. With 646 runs Mike Hussey has been immense. Suresh Raina and MS Dhoni have also been superb. Dwayne Bravo, with 25 wickets and 106 runs, is one of the stellar all-rounders.

Mumbai Indians
Mumbai were only pipped from top spot on run rate. They might argue that is not a bad thing. They are a difficult side to gauge. They have alost ripped up pre-seaon plans and started again with the jettisoning of their captain, Ricky Ponting. Sachin Tendulkar's sprained hand gave them the chance to try other options and that was useful because the Little Master had not performed. As it is Glenn Maxwell has not taken his opportunity so Tendulkar comes straight back in. Aditya Tare could also lose his spot. Ponting might return but more likely is that Dwayne Smith's power hitting will be required. Mitchell Johnson, who missed the defeat by King's XI last time, is their top wicket-taker and is certain to return.

Tournament odds
At the start of the tournament this column advised a back-to-lay of Hyderabad at 22.0021/1. The time has now come for the lay and you should do so at 9.008/1. Chennai are 2.546/4, Mumbai, our outright tip, are 2.588/5. Rajasthan are 9.208/1.

First-innings runs
Here are the last eight first-innings scores (most recent first) at the Feroz Shah Kotla: 183-120-161-169-114-165-215-136. That is an average of 159. It should be noted, however, that going over 160 would have paid off five times. Chennai have passed 160 six times out of seven when they have batted first this term. Mumbai have busted 160 seven times in their last ten first digs. It looks like the smartest bet for this match to go over 160 again although we might not get more than 1.705/7.

Match odds
It is important to note that defeat does not spell the end of the IPL campaign for either side. As they finished Nos 1 and 2 respectively, Chennai and Mumbai will get another chance if they lose, playing off against the winner of the eliminator: Rajasthan v Hyderabad. On the head-to-head, Mumbai would appear to have the advantage. They have already beaten CSK twice this season. They won by nine runs in Chennai and then by 60 on home turf. Indeed, Chennai were awful that day and it was one of those when they looked lazy. They were bowled out for 79 with Johnson and Pragyan Ojha taking six wickets between them. In Chennai's favour is a win in the eliminator last season. Mumbai are outsiders and make for a solid trade at 2.1011/10. Chennai are 1.8910/11.

Top Chennai runscorer
Hussey and Dhoni have top scored against Mumbai this term. They will go off at 4.003/1 and 6.50n/a respectively. Dhoni also top scored in the eliminator win last year.

Top Mumbai runscorer
Tendulkar is no bet here. With an injured hand and poor form it would be crazy to risk him at such short odds as 4.507/2. Rohit Sharma and Dinesh Karthi are Mumbai's best batsmen. Sharma took honours in the win in Mumbai. Karthik top scored in the eliminator last season. Kieron Pollard hit 51 from 38 balls in Chennai.

Recommended bet
More tham 160 first-innings runs at 1.705/7