Handicappers' Corner: Lockinge proves Farhh too easy

Farhh landed the Locking Stakes at Newbury.

An excellent week of racing, York's Dante meeting a precursor to Group 1 action at Newbury, and there's plenty to reflect upon. David Johnson goes into greater detail...

Any fears that the mile division for older horses might be rather short of the usual quality were quickly allayed shortly after 15:50 on Saturday as the Saeed bin Suroor-trained Farhh ran away with the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. 

The perennial bridesmaid last year, there was no doubting that Farhh was Group 1 standard - he was top-rated on Saturday with a rating good enough to have won three of the last five renewals of the race, but given the nature that he won, and the margins involved, it's Timeform's view that Farhh has come back an improved performer, earning a new Timeform rating of 132.

Although a shade keen in the early stages, Farhh was travelling best from a long way out and never looked in any danger after going on around 2f out, still strong at the finish as he pulled four lengths clear of Sovereign Debt. Both the runner-up, and third Aljamaaheer have also been credited with personal bests, both running to 121.

Historical race standards give a range of 127-141 for the winner, whilst prior-ratings standards point to a figure in the low 130s. 

Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group 1 status in 1995, only Frankel (144+) in 2012 and Hawk Wing (136) in 2003 have put up higher-rated winning performances, whilst Keltos in 2002 also ran to 132.  

An analysis of the overall time backs up the view that Farhh put up a top-class effort, recording a timefigure of 131. 

In terms of final time analysis, only Workforce (Derby), Harbinger (King George) and Frankel (Guineas, Lockinge, Juddmonte, Champion Stakes) have recorded superior timefigures in the last four seasons.

A rating of 132 sees Farhh as the one to beat in both the Queen Anne (Animal Kingdom is currently rated 128) and Prince of Wales's Stakes, and whilst the Lockinge was Farhh's first success at the top level, it will be surprising if it's his last.

Earlier on the Newbury card, Willing Foe provided Godolphin with the first leg of a double in the Aston Park Stakes. This listed race has a habit of unearthing genuine Group-class performers and it seems the case again as Willing Foe earned a figure of 120 for his wide-margin win over Harris Tweed. 

Whether Willing Foe proves effective over the two and a half miles of the Gold Cup or not, he's certainly worth aiming at other Cup races, his rating higher than those awarded to Glen's Diamond (116) and Top Trip (118) for pulling clear in the Yorkshire Cup the previous afternoon.

If the Yorkshire Cup wasn't a vintage renewal, there is perhaps a feeling that was also the case with York's major classic trials, the Musidora and the Dante.

The Musidora attracted a typically small field, but one that was weaker than usual, and it went to the highly-touted Liber Nauticus. Rated 101P prior to the race, Liber Nauticus kept her unbeaten record and moves on to 109p.

Liber Nauticus will be suited by the step up to a mile and half, whilst she still looked green at York, but perhaps Secret Gesture and Moth have stronger Oaks credentials at present.

The Dante lost a lot of significance after Telescope wasn't declared following a late setback, and it certainly had the feel of a substandard renewal, just over four lengths covering the first five home.

Standards suggested a range of 113-122 for the winner and Libertarian's figure of 114 is the joint-lowest this century, alongside Black Bear Island (2009) and Magistretti (2003).

The highest-rating earned at York was that by Society Rock who defied his Group 1 penalty to go two places better than in the previous year's Duke of York Stakes. Confirming his 126 rating, he looks the strongest of the home contenders for the Diamond Jubilee, a race in which he has a very good record.

This week also saw a number of Group-class performances in handicaps, the pick of which was First Mohican who ran to 119p when winning the first race at the Dante meeting. Sir John Hawkwood ran to 116 to win the Jorvik Stakes and at Hamilton, Mijhaar ran to the same level in the Braveheart Stakes.

With Royal Ascot just four weeks away, the juvenile action is beginning to gather pace. The Aidan O'Brien-trained Stubbs is surely bound for that meeting after breaking his maiden at the second attempt at the weekend, and his rating of 99p is the best a juvenile has recorded so far.

Not far behind on a rating of 98p is Beldale Memory who maintained her unbeaten record in the listed Marygate Stakes at York. Ceiling Kitty followed up her success in that in the Queen Mary and that looks an obvious target. A median rating of 107 has been required to win the Queen Mary in the last five years.

Finally, the wait for a US Triple Crown winner goes on, as Orb's bid was derailed with defeat in the second leg, the Preakness Stakes. On 124, he remains the highest-rated 3-y-o in North America though, with the Preakness winner Oxbow adjudged to have run to 122. 

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