US Saturday Preview: Stars To Shine at Tampa

Graeme North analyses Saturday's action.

Timeform's Graeme North looks ahead to the best Saturday's action in the US...

Two more races in the second round of the Kentucky Derby qualifying series take place this weekend with easily the more interesting of the pair being the eponymous G2 Derby (17:15 local time, 22:15 GMT) at Tampa Bay for the simple reason that it sees the third appearance this season of a colt, Verrazano, who has made arguably built himself the biggest reputation outside of the recognized trials.

Unbeaten in two races at Gulfstream Park, Verrazano could hardly have looked a smarter prospect when drawing clear over a clearly-inadequate six and a half furlongs on his debut in January and he did little to confound that impression when following up in an allowance optional claimer over a mile last month by no less than 16 lengths. The third horse that day, the otherwise progressive Gunderman, who we had running 14 lb below his best, has since come out and won a competitive similar event in a fast time while posting a career best, so there is every chance that Verrazano's 118p Timeform rating - which as things stand gives puts him 8lb clear at the weights - underestimates his ability by 4 or 5 lb.

None of this has escaped the notice of the Morning Line compilers who have installed him as 1.84/5 favourite but it would be no surprise if he was sent off much shorter.

Second best on Timeform ratings is the G3 Sam F. Davies runner-up Dynamic Sky who was just touched off by the reopposing Falling Sky in that race last month but gets a 4 lb swing in the weights here. That in itself should be enough to reverse the placings but there was a strong suspicion Falling Sky (who was stepping up from sprint trips) pinched the Sam Davies from the front after setting slow fractions and Dynamic Sky is confidently selected to come out best of the pair this time.

Falling Sky is held too by Purple Egg (one of two unbeaten horses besides Verrazano in the field, the other being Park City) on one piece of form but perhaps the biggest threat to Verrazano will come from Honorable Dillon who won the G2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream last time and being by Tapit can be expected to improve on his first try beyond seven furlongs. Verrazano has the potential to be trainer Todd Pletcher's main Derby hope, however, not least given his pedigree which hints strongly at further improvement at a mile and a quarter, and he might well end up ante-post favourite for the Derby by the end of the weekend.

There is a strong supporting race at 16:45 (21:45 GMT) in the shape of the G3 Hillsborgh Stakes for older fillies and mares over nine furlongs on the turf. It's a competitive race to say the least with 7 lb or less by our reckoning covering eight of the twelve-strong field and 4.57/2 the field. Stars To Shine is best in on Timeform ratings on 132 followed by Mystical Star (129) and Kya One, Hooh Why and Blue Heart (all 128).

The top rated wasn't at her best in her final two starts last autumn back on the synthetic at Woodbine but she can be forgiven those two efforts, not least the final one over an inadequate seven furlongs, given she is best on turf and, importantly, she has a very good record fresh.

Mystical Star made all to land the G2 Sands Point Stakes at Belmont last summer and went down only to Polytrack specialist In Lingerie in the G1 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland in the autumn on her penultimate start and looks a tough opponent. Arguably the most interesting runner among the remainder is the ex-French Forces Of Darkness who was fourth in the Prix De Diane last summer but would probably prefer a longer trip on her US debut. Her trainer Graham Motion scored with another European import here on Wednesday but that one too needed her first run over an inadequate trip and Forces Of Darkness almost certainly has bigger targets ahead. Stars To Shine has won first time out after a break for the last two seasons and looks overpriced at 11.010/1 on the Morning Line.  
   
The highlight at Aqueduct is a $100,000 Stakes for three-year-olds over six furlongs at 16:52 (21:52 GMT) which doubles up as the penultimate leg of the $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 4. Only seven go to post but three of them - Whiskey Romeo, Weekend Hideaway and Clawback - have already shown very useful form and Rubysandpearls can't be ruled out either after a career-best last time over course and distance when he recorded a fast time.

Unbeaten Whiskey Romeo has to concede 2 lb all round which doesn't help his cause and hasn't yet recorded a significant timefigure of note but that can't be said of either Weekend Hideaway, who has twice been beaten around four lengths or less in Graded events, nor our Dirt Devil qualifier Clawback who is unbeaten in two runs on the inner track here. We wrote about him earlier in the year that he possesses so much speed that it would be a mistake sacrificing a lucrative sprinting career on the altar of a Classic campaign and connections seem to have taken the hint - he was very impressive last time under today's rider and though he hasn't yet been asked to tackle Graded company there's little doubt he's well up to that level. He's a confident selection.    
   
The highlight at Gulfstream Park is the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap (17:35, 22:35 GMT). Whether the presence of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Fort Larned is responsible for the small field is a moot point, but considering that he was some way below his best on his first run last year and that a mile is clearly on the sharp side for him then it's surprising more haven't elected to take him on. Fort Loudon, who has won at this sort of trip before albeit in lesser company, looks best of the rest despite having little in hand of Swagger Jack on their latest running here, but given he's probably best at up to seven furlongs nowadays the race makes little appeal for betting purposes. 

Breeders' Cup Turf winner Little Mike and Pacific Classic winner Dullahan both run at Meydan on Saturday and though Dullahan is up against it over an inadequate mile Little Mike has plenty in his favour in the Al Maktoum Challenge R3 at 16.00 GMT. Almost certain to get a soft lead from his rail draw and back at what is probably his best trip  - a mile and a quarter - despite what his Turf win might suggest he will take some pegging back with underfoot conditions in his favour too. He has 2 lb to find with Monterosso on our figures but with so much in his favour deserves to start favourite. 

Recommended Bets:
1pt win Stars To Shine in the Hillsborgh
1pt win Little Mike in the Al Maktoum Challenge at Meydan  

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.