The Shell Houston Open: Moaning Mickelson can shine again in Texas, says The Punter

Phil Mickelson, one of the Punter’s picks in Houston

Our man takes a detailed look at this week's US PGA Tour event from Texas. What will it take to win at Redstone?

Tournament History
For the last five years, the Shell Houston Open has been played in the week before the US Masters but a change in the schedule means that this year it's being played a fortnight before the year's first major championship. This will be the 66th staging of the event.

Venue
Redstone GC Tournament Course, Humble, Texas

Course Details
Par 72, 7457 yards, stroke average in 2012 - 71.45

A Rees Jones design, Redstone was built to host this event and will be doing so for the eighth year in-a-row this time around. It's a long track, with water in play on ten holes. Greens are slightly larger than average and in an attempt to simulate conditions at Augusta National, home of the US Masters in two weeks time, they'll be playing very fast - around 13 on the stimpmeter.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Twitter Link
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, starting at 8.00pm on Thursday

Last Five Winners
2012 - Hunter Mahan -16
2011 - Phil Mickelson -20
2010 - Anthony Kim -12 (playoff)
2009 - Paul Casey -11
2008 - Johnson Wagner -16

What will it take to win the Shell Houston Open?
Length isn't the be all and end all despite how long the track is. Although three of the last four winners were all ranked in the top-ten for Driving Distance for the week, three of the seven champs here, Stuart Appleby, Johnson Wagner and last year's winner, Hunter Mahan aren't renowned for their length off the tee. Driving Accuracy is absolutely irrelevant but hitting greens is imperative, as scrambling is tough here and a missed green often results in a bogey or worse. The stats to look at are Driving Distance and Greens In Regulation.

Is there an angle in?
Texans or anyone with a connection to the Lone Star State, have a very solid record in the event and six of the seven winners at this venue have been well-known multiple winners, with the exception being Wagner - although he too is now a multiple winner.

Trading tip for the week
Although we have another event before the US Masters, next week's Texas Open, there are bound to be some dramatic moves in the US Masters market this week as players perform well or flop here, and if you're nice and quick you can get yourself some good positions ahead of the year's first major in a fortnight's time. Very few, if any, of the main Augusta protagonists will be lining-up at the TPC San Antonio next week and I suspect the market will take shape this week.

Tiger Woods is currently trading at 4.84/1 for the Augusta showpiece but that price will change one way or the other depending on how Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson (in particular) play this week. If Rory gets into gear the 11.5n/a currently available about him will vanish in no time and Phil will shorten-up drastically if he plays well again here.

In-Play Tactics
In the first few years at Redstone, a fast start was essential but in the last two years, Phil Mickelson won from seven back after day one and five back at halfway in 2011 and Hunter Mahan was four back after both day one and day two last year.

Don't expect the event to be won with a final hole birdie. With water very much in play, the par 4 18th is the toughest on the course at 488 yards and if you're selection's in front after 71 holes, play it safe and lay a bit back. I was on Stuart Appleby in 2007 when he looked sure to defend the title but I'm sorry to say I wasn't cautious enough and when he found water from the fairway bunker, all my potential winnings sank along with his ball. Not a great feeling.

Market Leaders
Just days after Tiger Woods overtook him at the top of the Officail World Rankings, Rory McIlroy has a chance to return to the top. And it seems Woods is keen to keep their friendly rivalry going, as he seems to be getting the most out of it. Apparently he sent a text to Rory today telling him to "get his finger out of his ass and win this week". Charming! Let's see if he's inspired!

It's very difficult to know what to expect from Rory, he looked like he was starting to turn the corner at Doral last time out, after a poor first round, but I'd like to see a bit more evidence before backing him and I still wish he'd play more tournament golf.

Keegan Bradley and Steve Stricker are challenging for second-favouritism and I can see why. Coming off a tied 3rd at the Arnold Palmer last week (his third top-seven finish in-a-row) and his tied 4th in this event twelve months ago, it's impossible to dismiss Keegan readily. And the same can be said of Stricker...

He's finished 2nd in both stroke play events played this year, he reached the quarter finals of the WGC World Match Play and he has a very respectful record at Redstone too, having finished inside the top-11 in four of his six visits here. I couldn't put anyone off either of them but they're both just a tad short for my liking.

Selections
Phil Mickelson is a mercurial and fascinating character and I can't wait to see how he performs this week. At Bay Hill last week he was dreadful, four-putting from four feet on one occasion and playing just about as bad as he can but this is a difeernt week and a different venue. He hasn't performed at Bay Hill in a very long time, and the week before, he looked in good order at Doral.

He's had a good old moan about the fact that this event doesn't immediately preceed the Masters this year and I couldn't help but smile when I read it, you can often expect something special after a Mickelson moan.

When interviewed after this event in 2010, just days before he won his third Green Jacket at Augusta, he said that for him, this wasn't an ideal course to prepare for Augusta. Stating that because he had to use his driver all week to prepare for the Masters, with all the water in play he knew he was going to put himself in lots of trouble, and he did! He finished down the field in a tie for 35th.

Here we are a few short years later and he's now moaning that this event isn't being used the week before but I for one am pleased that it doesn't. I fancy his chances are enhanced for both events as a result.

With Redstone form figures that read 23-MC-35, he bumbled along with two opening rounds of 70, twelve months after his negative comments and his 35th placed finish before appearing to suddenly 'get' Redstone. Weekend rounds of 63 and 65 saw him blow the opposition away but it also blew his chances of a fourth US Masters and a successful title defence. He had unquestionably peaked seven days too soon.

Then last year, having opened up with 65 to lead on day one, he drifted along for three days, eventually finishing fourth. It's just possible he was subconsciously protecting himself for Augusta, given what had happened a year earlier. Maybe I'm looking into it far too deeply, maybe I'm not, but one thing I am absolutely sure off, is that this place, just like Augusta, suits Phil's game perfectly. The risk, as always though, is which Phil turns up on Thursday?

It's perfectly possible that he hasn't yet shook off his horrid form from last week but I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him bounce back and if that's the case, he's a very fair price right now for both here and the US Masters and I've got him onside for both.

Graham DeLaet ranks highly for both Driving Distance and Greens In Regulation, he's been in decent order so far this season and he very nearly did me a massive favour here in 2010 when he finished third after I'd backed him at 600.0599/1! He's not a massive price this week but I couldn't leave him out.

Texan, Ryan Palmer also ticks all the stats boxes nicely and has an improving record in his home state with three top-tens there in his last five outings.

And last but not least, I've thrown a few pounds at in-form Boo Weekley at a big price. He's certainly not the longest on Tour but when he's dialled in, as he most certainly was on the final day of the Tampa Bay Championship two weeks ago, few are more deadly with their irons.

Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 18.5n/a
Graham DeLaet @ 120.0119/1
Ryan Palmer @ 120.0119/1
Boo Weekley @ 170.0169/1

I'll be back on Friday with the In-Play Blog

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter