Trophee Hassan II: Grillo can make his mark at a tasty price

Emiliano Grillo, one of The Punter's picks in Morocco

The European Tour visits Morocco this week for the Trophee Hassan II. What's it going to take to succeed at the Golf du Palais Royal and can young Argentine Emiliano Grillo take to the venue? Steve thinks he can, read his preview here...

Tournament History
Although the Trophee Hassan II has been in existence since 1971 and this will be the 40th staging, it's only been an official European Tour event since 2010. Prior to that, it was a limited field invitation only jolly and form prior to 2010 is largely irrelevant.

Venue
Golf du Palais Royal, Agadir, Morocco.

Course Details
Par 72, 6,844 yards, stroke average in 2012 - 71.70

In addition to the last two renewals of this event, the Golf du Palais Royal also hosted the Moroccan Open six times in the 1990's. It's an undulating, variable Robert Trent Jones design with small greens, surrounded by deep bunkering, running at around 10.5 on the stimpmeter. Some fairways are tree-lined and some exposed and generously wide. Water is in play on five holes.

It's a tricky track, close to the Atlantic Ocean, and it's made decidedly more difficult when the wind blows.
All the players speak highly of the venue and Rhys Davies last year described it as a 'hidden gem', before adding that it was a "special privilege to play there." And here's what England's John Parry has said about it in his blog.

"While many of the holes are tree lined with a parkland feel, there is one stretch which runs along the coast that has dunes and is definitely more links style. Being alongside the Atlantic, the whole course can be exposed to very difficult crosswinds. In such a lovely and spectacular setting it's impossible to do anything but look forward to the week ahead."

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Details
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
Alternative Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 11.00am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday, 1.00pm on Saturday and 2.00pm on Sunday

First three winners
2012 - Michael Hoey - 17
2011 - David Horsey -13 (playoff)
2010 - Rhys Davies -25

What will it take to win the Trophee Hassan II?
Although the fairways are fairly generous, if players do stray very wide a lot of trouble awaits. There are five metres of maintained rough (6cm high) either side of the fairways but any wider and they'll encounter unmaintained ground with bushes and ice plants. An accurate game is very much what's required this week.

Greens In regulation was the important stat when the Moroccan Open was played here and of the top-five players in the last two years, only Jaco Van Zyl (ranked 22nd in 2011) didn't rank inside the top-seven for Par 4 performance on the week.

Current form hasn't been at all important in the last two years so don't be afraid to back someone that isn't on the top of their game coming in to the event.

Is there an angle in?
I fancy this venue plays very similar to a number used on the European Tour rota, either past or present. East London, home of the Africa Open, Royal Portrush, which hosted last year's Irish Open, Oitavos Dunes in Portugal, once the home of the now defunct Estoril Open all have form lines tying-in with Golf du Palais Royal and I'm pretty sure Lake Karrinyup, home of the Perth International will prove a great guide in the fullness of time.

Hong Kong Golf Course is another tree-lined tight venue and an even more tenuous link could be Wentworth. Again, it's tree-lined and often wind-affected.

Is there an identikit winner?
Brits have a great record here. They filled the first five places last year and David Horsey and Rhys Davies, along with South African, Jaco Van Zyl, fought out the playoff in 2011.

In-Play Tactics
The draw may prove pivotal. There isn't an awful lot of wind forecast but what there is arrives in the afternoons so an early start on day one when the course will be at its spectacular best, could prove beneficial.

If you're playing in-running, the last hole is tricky and last year it ranked the toughest on the course but the back-nine is definitely easier than the front-nine.

Looking at the 2011 renewal, it looked as though a fast start was required - the first four home were all in the top-ten after day one but last year, Michael Hoey came from a country mile back to win and there may well be opportunities in-running on both Friday and Saturday as players come from behind before Sunday's final round.

Market Leaders
An out-of-form Francesco Molinari heads a tightly-packed market, where a whole bunch of players trading below 50.049/1 have outstanding claims. His brother, Edoardo, Richie Ramsay, Pablo Larrazabal, 2011 winner, David Horsey, and Raphael Jacquelin were all players I was interested in but they were all too short, and, with the exception of my first selection, I've cast my net a bit further afield.

Selections
I backed Gregory Bourdy at the recent Africa Open, at East London, because he had form at both Oitavos Dunes (winner there) and Portrush (led at halfway) and he very nearly obliged. He was going to be left out on account of price but given he tees off nice and early on the back-nine, I felt I ought to have him onside, albeit modesty, from the get-go.

All the players mentioned above, as well as a number of others that are yet to get off the mark on the European Tour, are all considerably shorter than multiple winner Alvaro Quiros and I've felt compelled to take a chance on the Spaniard.

This shouldn't really suit the massive hitter but he handles windy conditions very well and he has bits of form at both Wentworth and the Hong Kong Golf Course, so he can play tight, tree-lined venues. He returned to the fray following wrist surgery just two week ago at the Avantha Masters and there were real signs of progression last week in Malaysia where he made 13 birdies over the last two rounds. It's a bit of a just-in-case wager but with the exception of Francesco Molinari, he's the class-act in the field and he might just contend.

I simply couldn't leave out last year's winner Michael Hoey, who I was lucky enough to be onboard twelve months ago. Like Bourdy, Hoey is also a winner at Oitavos Dunes and considering he trailed by nine after day one and that he won by three, he clearly loves this gaff. He hasn't been in great form this year but he's been preparing nicely in Dubai and he's more than capable of finding form from nowhere.

Of all my picks, Emiliano Grillo, at 130.0129/1, looks the best value. He led in Perth last year before being overhauled by Jason Dufner and Bo Van Pelt and he finished inside the top-ten at the Africa Open too, so he should be suited by this venue. He has a very solid all-round game and I can see him going well this week.

After that, I've chucked in four big-outsiders in Freddie Andersson-Hed, Rhys Davies, John Parry (one of Paul's find Me A 100 Winner picks) and James Morrison.

Selections:
Gregory Bourdy @ 40.039/1
Alvaro Quiros @ 60.059/1
Michael Hoey @ 76.0n/a (Fixed Odds Market)
Emiliano Grillo @ 130.0129/1
Freddie Andersson-Hed @ 130.0129/1
Rhys Davies @ 160.0159/1
John Parry @ 240.0239/1
James Morrison @ 290.0289/1

I'll be back either later today or early tomorrow with my preview for the week's other event - the Shell Houston Open.

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter