UK Politics Betting: Why 'nasty' Boris Johnson won't lead Tories

Is Boris Johnson a 'nasty piece of work'?

The Betfair markets aren't convinced that yesterday's calamitous interview has damaged Boris Johnson's chances of being next Conservative Party leader. However, Max Liu believes that the London Mayor should still be opposed at the ballot box and in the betting.

How reassuring to see a journalist sticking it to Boris Johnson, even if it was done in an all-in-the-game kind of way, but was the Mayor of London's interview with the BBC's Eddie Mair really a disaster? The Guardian described the encounter, in which Johnson was labelled a 'nasty piece of work', as a "bicycle crash" but Boris's father Stanley reckons it's done little to dent his son's chances of becoming Tory leader and, at the moment, the Betfair markets agree. 

Johnson, the son not the father, is 5.14/1 favourite to succeed David Cameron as next Tory leader and speculation about his prospects is unlikely to abate soon. That's exactly as Boris wants it because British politics has never produced such a committed adherent to the theory that it doesn't matter what people are saying about you as long as they're saying something. Johnson is an ace PR operator and no doubt he will somehow turn yesterday's encounter in to a positive.

But that line about PR, and being brilliant on the outside, used to apply to David Cameron and look how swiftly he's come to resemble yesterday's man. The PM looks green at the gills and, while it's too soon to rule out a Tory turnaround in time for the next election, Cameron's decline is testament to how quickly even the most skilled politicians can slide if they lack substance. 

Does that apply to Boris? Is there anything to his politics apart from desire to maintain the social status quo, free market economics and, occasionally, some enlightened views about immigration? If you're expecting to learn the answer from tonight's BBC2 (21:00) documentary about the London Mayor then don't hold your breath. From what I understand, the film errs toward hagiography, a suspicion which is compounded by the makers' decision not to interview Sonia Purnell, author of the excellent, and recommended, 'Just Boris: A Tale of Blond Ambition'.  

Still, it's worth watching. The documentary includes interviews with Boris's family and it's always interesting to watch the Johnsons reveal themselves in ways that even they fail to anticipate. Note that while dismissing Mair's interview with his son as 'disrespectful', Stanley Johnson added: "I have no idea who Eddie Mair is or what he does... "

Oh? And I thought all posh people, present company included, began the morning with Radio Four's The Today programme? This small, but telling comment, reeks of entitlement, the ruling class compulsion to regard all but their own as an undistinguished mass of non-entities.

Johnson pere wants us to think he's Lord Emsworth but I'm reminded of the description given me by another Tory toff (I swear I'm not fabricating this quote Bojo-style) who's encountered SJ several times: "A very nasty piece of work." Now we know where Boris gets it from.

One highlight, according to those who have seen the BBC doc, is Ian Hislop's assessment of his old Have I Got News For You sparring partner: "The British Berlusconi". That's very good but while we're on the subject of redundant Euro right-wingers perhaps Boris could also be the fat Sarkozy? The reason the former French president springs to mind is all this rot about Boris captialising on the Europe-wide desire for an alternative to the boring, centrists who have dominated for the past couple of decades. There's an appetite for change but British voters know that won't come from an old Etonian monarchist who, during his time at Oxford, allegedly looked down on Cameron as a bit of an oik. 

The misery of the last two-and-a-half years may have proved that Gordon Brown was right when he said it was "no time for a novice" and deep down, and beyond the M25, British voters know that now is no time for Boris. When the next election comes around, we won't be looking for an entertainer, we'll be desperate to elect a party and a PM who can create a fairer society at the same time as fixing the economy. That's why the French chose Francoise Hollande over Sarko.     

Boris is the only Conservative to win a major election since 1992 (in the Premier League era, you might say) and that should not be underestimated. Indeed, underestimating any right wing politician, as well the public's willingness to vote for them against their own interests, is always a mistake. However, while Johnson mayoral election victories might mean a fair deal to Tory party members when they choose their next leader, I don't think it will count for as much as some people claim among the wider electorate.

The Conservatives, despite the fact that their last four leaders have failed to win a general election, will be determined to find someone who can get them over the line. Johnson was a failure as a an MP and succeeding in Westminster is a very different task to triumphing in the capital's mayoral politics. Did anyone ever mention Ken Livingstone as a challenger to Tony Blair? The comparison isn't all that far-fetched.  

Last week, Boris gave the strongest hint yet that he'd like to be Tory leader when he said: "Obviously, if the ball came loose from the back of a scrum - which it won't - it would be a great, great thing to have a crack at."

Strange comment for an ex-prop forward to make but, while Boris was probably well-versed in the dark arts of scrummaging, the most effective front rowers are those who master the attritional elements of the game. That requires substance, stickability and a willingness to put the interests of the team ahead of your own. None of these, suffice to say, are qualities that Boris Johnson possesses.