Against All Odds: Goals in the Spanish second tier

The crowd should be entertained tonight

It's Spanish Segunda Division football for Paul Robinson tonight as he believes that there will be plenty of goals between Alcorcon and Numancia.

It's been a fantastic week so far - four successful lays from six selections at odds of 1.68, 1.87, 1.53 and 1.67 - meaning we have a 3.7pt profit with one day to go. 

Alcorcon have climbed to third courtesy of three straight wins, and if they make it four in their game in hand over Girona, they will leapfrog them into the all important automatic promotion places. That is something that they will desperate to achieve given how they missed out in the play-offs last term.

It's quite amazing that Jos Bordals' side are that high up the table really as they've lost 10 times this season - which is more than any other team in the top six. They've only been held to three draws though, so it seems a case of win or bust for the club from Madrid. 

As far as the goals go; 15 of their 30 fixtures have gone over 2.5, and their matches are averaging 2.67 goals per 90 minutes. Five of their last eight at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo have had three or more, including 4-1, 3-2 and 3-1 victories.

Numancia are 12th in the division and while they still have some hope of making the play-offs, they are seven points adrift of sixth so need to start putting some wins on the board. In fairness their recent form is decent - unbeaten in six with three victories and three draws - but they need to maintain that run till the end of the season.

Pablo Machn's men don't have as good goal stats as their opponents. Their matches are only averaging 2.3 goals each time and only 12 of their 30 have gone over 2.5. The reason why I think it could be a different story tonight is that draws aren't good enough now if they want to achieve success this year, so I can't envisage them sitting back for a 0-0 like in previous weeks. Furthermore, the recent head to head results between these pair are littered with goals, with the seven matches they've played ending 0-1, 4-1, 0-1, 2-2, 2-1, 3-1 and 2-1.

Under 2.5 goals is a 50/50 chance this evening, for my money, so with it trading as low as 1.758/11, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Alcorcon v Numancia @ 1.758/11 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 82 pts
Returned: 81 pts
P/L – 1 pt (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)