US Masters Betting: Is this the weakest European challenge ever?

Justin Rose's recent form has been a rare bright spot in a miserable run for Europeans

Its been 14 long years since Jose-Maria Olazabal became the last European to win at Augusta. Citing the most recent evidence, Paul Krishnamurty argues that statistic won't be changing this year...

It wasn't so long ago that the US Masters was widely regarded as Europe's best chance of winning a major. During the 1980s and 1990s, players from our continent wore the Green Jacket no fewer than 11 times. This during an era when Americans dominated the world rankings and, although Europe proved their equal in Ryder Cups, they tended to be upsetting the odds in doing so.

Nowadays, the situation is completely reversed. In world ranking terms, European golf has never been stronger. Prior to Tiger Woods regaining the number one spot last week, the last four men to hold that title were all from either Britain or Germany. Europe has now won seven of the last nine Ryder Cups, including that amazing comeback last September at Medinah. Yet for all their wider success, and that includes all the other three majors, there hasn't been a single European champion at Augusta this century.

Time for a change? Don't bet on it, for the first quarter of 2013 could barely have gone worse for our big guns. Rory McIlroy began the year with the world and a huge Nike contract at his feet, before flopping absymally. The new world number two starts favourite for this week's Houston Open, needing a big performance to reassure punters who took down to 6.25/1 for the Masters over the winter. Another non-challenging performance will probably see his odds drift markedly from the current 11.5n/a in favour of other challengers in better form. 

The news regarding the other three Europeans to have recently held the number one spot is no better. Luke Donald's slow start to 2013 was compounded by missing the cut at last week's relatively low-grade Malaysian Open, for which he started a short-priced favourite. Lee Westwood, meanwhile, finished a miserable 63rd at Bay Hill and hasn't won anywhere in the world since last June. From being number one just over two years ago, Martin Kaymer is now outside the top-30 and in any case, has an awful Augusta record. 

Slightly stronger cases can be made for Ian Poulter and Graeme McDowell. The former was outstanding at his favourite event, the World Matchplay, although two strokeplay starts since have yielded little. Nonetheless, Poulter is developing a reputation as a man for the big occasion and was seventh last year at Augusta. Gmac has yet to contend in a Masters, but was superb in the other three majors last year and a recent third place at Doral points towards more of the same.

Nevertheless, with all due respect, Poulter and Gmac are relative outsiders for Masters glory. trading at 50.049/1 and 65.064/1 respectively. Among the market leaders, only one European inspires any confidence right now. By finishing second to Tiger Woods at Bay Hill, a course where the great man is almost invincible, Justin Rose was in effect winning a prestigious tournament. Doing that for real is the least Rose deserves after a splendidly consistent run. Since winning the WGC event at Doral 12 months ago, he's been runner-up no fewer than five times, all in big events, and notched another 11 top-tens during that period. He also has a decent Augusta record, finishing a contending fifth in 2007 and making the last three top-20s.

However, as much as those impressive numbers are not to be argued with, there must be a doubt about Justin's ability to finish the job. He had the Bay Hill crown at his mercy over the weekend and seemed to fall apart under the pressure, only coming again once the tournament was lost to Woods. His performance certainly did not scream 'major-winner-in-waiting'. Rather, Woods' latest victory means that all 13 of this season's PGA Tour events have been won by Americans. Unless Rory can find his touch very quickly, it is hard to see anyone from Europe breaking that run at the Masters.