понедельник, 25 марта 2013 г.

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rose and Woods dominate the early Arnold Palmer market

Rose and Woods, dominating the market but can they dominate the event?

Steve's happy with his picks so far this week but he's quite keen for Kiradech Aphibarnrat to slow-up and slow-up soon. Read his early thoughts here...

12:30 - March 22, 2013
For the second day running, thunderstorms struck Kuala Lumpur and play has had to be suspended at the Maybank Malaysian Open. They failed to resume at all yesterday but today they were able to get back out and play eight or nine holes. They've now finally finished for the day and they'll be back first thing in the morning.

My only pre-event wager, Charl Schwartzel, has completed two rounds and he's tied for second with China's Ashun Wi, one behind Thailand's Kiradech Aphibarnrat on -10, who still has eight holes to play of round two.

In theory, Schwartzel should be favoured by the two breaks. Although he had a very long day today, finishing up round one before playing round two in its entirety, I fancy all the players on his side of the draw, i.e. those that started in the afternoon on day one, have life a little easier. The fact that Schwartzel hasn't had to do any waiting around today and that he'll get a nice lie-in tomorrow should be in his favour.

Those drawn in the morning on day one will have to come back first thing tomorrow to finish-up round two and then they'll then have to wait around for their tee-time in round three. Not ideal at all.

Schwartzel has already traded as short as 1.784/5, when he held a three shot lead, but a scruffy finish to round two (two bogeys in his last four holes) has seen his price drift back out to 2.809/5, with Aphibarnrat looking his biggest danger.

I backed the burly Thai, who's apparently also known as Anujit Hirunratanakorn (one mammoth mouthful of a name not enough?), three years ago in this event at a huge price, as well as in the 2011 renewal, so if he were to win this week, it would certainly grate but I stopped backing him after last year's Avantha Masters when he put in yet another poor effort in-contention.

He's a talent for sure but his record in-the-mix isn't great and he still has only one Asian Tour title to his name. That said, I can't pretend his presence isn't an annoyance and if he is going to mess up again I wish he'd get on with it!

I could wake up tomorrow and find Schwartzel's a long way back and that the event has been reduced to just 54 holes but I don't think there's much I can do about it. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have input a lay back of my stakes at odds-on but it's always easy afterwards and I'm just going to leave things alone for now.

Over in the States, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, according to the betting, it looks like a straight fight between just two players already, my man, Tiger Woods, now trading at 3.7511/4 and England's Justin Rose 3.9n/a.

Playing in the same morning three-ball yesterday, the pair opened their accounts for the week handsomely. Woods made three bogeys but still ended the day on three under-par, having played the par fives in five under, and as highlighted in the preview, that appears to be the key to success here.

Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7, two clear of John Huh and three ahead of both John Rollins and Brad Fritsch.

As the afternoon starters began tardily yesterday, I assumed that the advantage was with the early starters but as it transpired the late starters averaged a score of 73.15, compared to 73.85 in the morning. With barely any wind forecast today, Woods and co, playing in the afternoon today, shouldn't be inconvenienced and given how hard it is to make up ground in this event, the market could be right.

I can't believe Rose can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I'm more than happy with Tiger's start, so for now, I'm leaving things alone here too.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-Event Selection:
Charl Schwartzel @ 7.413/2

Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 4.216/5
Bubba Watson @ 38.037/1

* You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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