PSG v Barcelona: Goals are the smart bet on a night of excitement in French capital

Expect Barca celebrations at Parc des Princes on Tuesday night

Barcelona should have too much class for PSG but a high-scoring encounter in Paris is the smart selection, says James Eastham.

PSG v Barcelona
Tuesday April 2, KO 19:45
Live on ITV
Match Odds: PSG 5.14/1, Barcelona 1.784/5, The Draw 4.03/1.
Do PSG stand a chance of causing one of the biggest upsets in this season's Champions League by knocking out tournament second favourites Barcelona?

The short answer is no. The club from the French capital have come a long way in a short space of time since Qatar-based QSI took over 18 months ago but on paper they lack the class and experience to challenge a side of Barcelona's calibre. You can always make the argument that over two legs anything can happen, but I wouldn't advise anyone to go against Barcelona's price of 1.182/11 to reach the last four.

Where PSG are likely to be found out is in defence. Carlo Ancelotti's side had the best defensive record of any side in the competition during the group stages (three goals conceded in six games) but those figures are virtually irrelevant going into this game. PSG conceded in both legs of their 3-2 aggregate last 16 win over Valencia and have yet to face a side that comes close to Barcelona's standard in Europe or the league. They are particularly weak at full-back, where Christophe Jallet and Maxwell tend to struggle against top-class opponents.

Midfield is also a concern. France international Blaise Matuidi is arguably Ligue 1's most improved player of the last 18 months but must fear having too much to do unless the team's other midfielders raise their game. Thiago Motta (doubtful) has struggled because of injuries this season and, while Marco Verratti is a player of enormous potential, this will be a stiff test of his capabilities.

Barcelona's price to qualify looks right, and their price of 1.784/5 to win on the night is also difficult to argue with. If you wish to oppose Barca, the draw, at 4.03/1, would be a smarter pick than PSG at 5.14/1.

While I would question PSG's defensive abilities, they are capable of scoring. In Zlatan Ibrahimovic they have a player that has excelled all season and looked sharp in PSG's 1-0 win over Montpellier on Friday night. He also knows the Barcelona defence well having played for the Blaugrana for a single season. He will be motivated to make his mark against his old club.

Jeremy Menez, Ezequiel Lavezzi and the inconsistently talented Javier Pastore provide decent support, while Kevin Gameiro has maintained an excellent scoring record this season despite starting most games on the bench.

Barcelona's stats also suggest the hosts have a good chance of finding the net. The visitors have conceded in 15 of their last 17 games in all competitions stretching back to mid-January.

Both teams to Score at 1.794/5 and over 2.5 goals at 1.865/6 are both worth considering.

Recommended Bets:
Best Bet: PSG v Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.865/6

James Eastham has made 4.74pts profit from 6pts staked on French teams in this season's Champions League. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham