China Open Snooker Tips: One player to back from each quarter

Ali Carter remains under-estimated by the market

Tomorrow sees the start of the final ranking event before the World Championship, with the China Open televised on Betfair Live Video. Read here for Paul Krishnamurty's regular trading plan... 

Back Mark Allen 5u @ 14.0

Regular readers of my snooker previews will appreciate the dilemma posed in this top section of the draw. The two players I've been consistently positive about all season and am likely to back for next month's World Championship are seeded to face one another in the last-16. With great reluctance, winner-in-waiting Neil Robertson is marginally edged out of the staking plan by the perenially overpriced Mark Allen.

Following Robertson this season has been frustrating to say the least. Nobody has been more consistent in terms of reaching the latter stages, yet he keeps finding one too good. Carrying our cash last time out, Robbo lost a deciding frame in the PTC Galway final. On the other hand, Allen delivered in style for us at the World Open, confirming what an improved player he is by thrashing all opponents by at least a three frame margin. Like Robbo, he lost a deciding frame to eventual champion Ding Junhui in Galway, during which the Chinese star hit a 147. There's certainly no disgrace in that so 'The Pistol' is taken to resume where he left off when last in China.

For the record, it should be noted that this section also includes Peter Ebdon, who has won two of the last four China Opens, 2007 champion Graeme Dott and Betfair German Masters runner-up Marco Fu. Respected as they are, the big-two look a class apart.

Back John Higgins 5u @ 12.5

The name that stands out in this section is bang-in-form Galway champ Ding Junhui, on home turf yet still available in double figures. The problem I have in backing him, however, is a nasty draw. In the last-32 he'll have to get past the highly capable Barry Hawkins, who should be one of the most motivated players in the field, given his ranking position near the edge of the last-16 in this final event before seedings are made for the Crucible. Even assuming Ding delivers there, the likes of Stephen Maguire, Stuart Bingham and John Higgins all potentially stand in the way just of a semi-final place.

Higgins gets the vote on the basis of his outstanding form in the World Open, which included 5-0 whitewashes of Junhui and Bingham, before Allen shot him down in the semis. Granted that was his first decent form of 2013, but there was enough in the early part of the season, including victories in PTC4 and the Shanghai Masters, to suggest the 'Wizard of Wishaw' remains a potent threat at the very highest level. Moreover, one would expect the four-times world champion to be running into his best form around this time of year.

Back Mark Davis 1u @ 75.074/1

Of all the ranking tournaments, the China Open has been the likeliest to produce a shock winner in recent years. Apart from Ebdon's two huge-priced upsets, this was the scene of Judd Trump's breakthrough in 2011, at odds of around 80.079/1. If we're going to see another outsider reach the final, he is much likelier to come from the bottom half of this year's draw. The two men that take the eye in this respect are Jack Lisowski and Mark Davis, with the latter marginally preferred on grounds of experience.

In due course, all snooker fans will know Lisowski's name intimately. It may take another year or so for him to win an event, but the 21 year-old is capable of a very high standard already. Assuming Jack wins his qualifying round match, he'll play his good mate Trump in the last-32 and given the latter's indifferent form, will represent a massive threat to the tournament favourite.

Davis is seeded to play the winner in what could be a pivotal match in his career. Currently ranked 16th, he must improve by one spot or see 26th placed Ronnie O'Sullivan steal his automatic place at the World Championship. It is hard not to like this vastly improved player's attitude so expect Davis to give it his best shot. The rest of this section isn't terrifying. Shaun Murphy hasn't been at his best since the Betfair Masters in January, while World Open runner-up Matthew Stevens remains an enigma.

Back Ali Carter 3u @ 24.023/1

Again ranking considerations lie behind this bet. Carter is ranked 15th and therefore most vulnerable to a good performance from Davis. However, even if Ali didn't have that extra incentive, he would rate stupendous value from this draw, at these odds. I said before successfully tipping him for the Betfair German Masters that 'The Captain' was a significant improver, under the market radar, and that verdict still stands. Though he let himself down last time in Galway, Ali was outstanding when beating Higgins in the opening round.

The only player I fear in this section is Mark Selby, who has a tricky opener against Mark King. Besides Selby, the other big-name is out of form Mark Williams.