Against All Odds: Magpies to fight off Robins

The Magpies won't lie down this afternoon

Swindon host Notts County in League One this afternoon and Paul Robinson thinks they are trading far too short based on their form since Paulo Di Canio left the club.

Swindon are battling for promotion to the Championship and they are currently in third place, just one point behind Brentford in second. Given the postponement of The Bees' match today, a win would see them move above them, or even go top if Doncaster lose at Scunthorpe.

While The Robins are the worthy favourites for this game, I don't feel their odds of 1.674/6 are justified. Since they lost their enigmatic Italian manager in February, they have won just three of their next seven fixtures, losing two of them. The most worrying thing about that stat is that they are yet to win at home - two draws and a defeat - and in the wider picture, Swindon haven't been victorious at The County Ground since the middle of January.

Notts County are another side with a new manager but Chris Kiwomya has a better record than his counterpart Kevin MacDonald. After Keith Curle was dismissed at the start of February, the former Ipswich and Arsenal striker has avoided defeat in eight of his 10 fixtures. They may have only won three of those games, but they have managed to stay within six points of the play-off places and a couple of victories would put them right in the mix.

The Magpies haven't lost any of their last three on the road, and if we look at their entire campaign, they have lost just three times in all competitions away from Meadow Lane in the last 404 days. That truly is an incredible record for any side, let alone one of County's stature.

I simply can't have Swindon at the current prices given recent form and Notts County's away results. That's why, at around the 1.674/6 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Swindon v Notts County @ 1.674/6 

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 81 pts
Returned: 78.59 pts
P/L – 2.41 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)