World Cup 2014 Antepost Betting: Falcao can help Colombia go a long way

Falcao is one of the world's best strikers

With World Cup 2014 approaching, Ed Malyon is taking us through the contenders from the CONMEBOL region and assessing their chances of glory in Brazil...

Colombia

It is now 15 years since Colombia last qualified for a World Cup, but all the indications are that their return to the top table in 2014 is now inevitable. Their failure at France '98 was supposed to mark the end of an era, but instead that generation would go out with a bang, winning the 2001 Copa America on home soil.

They missed out on a qualification playoff for the 2002 World Cup on goal difference, while four years later they would finish shy again, with Uruguay beating Argentina in their last fixture to pip Colombia by a point. It would be one point again that would deny them a place in South Africa.

With no Brazil in qualifying this time round they were already in with a far better chance of reaching their goal, but that is not the only change. Their current crop of players are predominantly European-based and are of a very high quality, but that was not of any help at the 2011 Copa America in Argentina where they were fancied as dark horses yet disappointed under Leonel Alvarez.

He remained in the post, yet after a disappointing start to the qualificaition process Alvarez was disposed with and his replacement was former Argentina boss Jose Pekerman. The transformation since his arrival has been remarkable, and recent performances such as the 1-1 with Brazil and the 4-0 mauling of Uruguay have really started to make people believe that Colombia could be one of the surprise packages in Brazil, with familiar conditions and arguably the best centre-forward in the world leading the line.

How will they line up?

Alvarez's 4-5-1 left Falcao isolated and wasted the talents of the Atletico hitman. Pekerman's first move was to get more players around him, more creativity and more supply. He did that by crafting an attacking 4-2-2-2 shape, with a pair of playmakers anchored by two defensive midfielders, and a pair of rampaging full-backs to keep teams on the defensive.

Pekerman has also been the beneficiary of some good fortune, with Jackson Martinez's emergence in Europe giving him yet another option to play alongside Falcao as well as trouble-making-but-goal-scoring Teo Gutierrez and livewire Dorlan Pabn.

Their fast tempo and sumptuous interplay against Brazil was a joy to watch, and this is a side that will undoubtedly become a favourite of neutrals when we get closer to the tournament.

Strengths

This side is one that brims with attacking talent. It begins on either flank of the back four, with Pablo Armero and Camilo Zuiga providing thrust. James Rodriguez is one of Europe's most sought-after young players, and he will combine with the wonderfully-named Macnelly Torres to provide the chances for one of the strongest strike partnerships in world football.

The best thing about this is that their attacking nature pins teams back, and they boast the best defence on the continent.

Unlike some teams that struggle for depth, Colombia now also boasts a healthy squad throughout, with Fredy Guarn, Juan Cuadrado, Cristian Zapata and Jackson Martinez not able to get in the first-choice eleven.

Weaknesses

Despite having the best defensive record in CONMEBOL qualifying, there are concerns over what shape their central defensive options will be like in a year-and-a-half. Mario Yepes surely can't make it that long as he's already 37 and Luis Perea will likely be a below-par bench option.

This leaves them one injury away from trouble at centre-back, and when they come up against the best sides that could tell.

What do the odds say?

Odds of 38.037/1 in the World Cup 2014 Winner market make Colombia arguably the most tempting and certainly best value of all South American teams. People have certainly noticed their recent performances as their price has consistently dropped since Pekerman's appointment. There has been plenty of money matched on them north of 100.099/1 (and at a high of 250.0249/1) and they will continue to shorten due to their exciting style and by virtue of being a South American team. Every competition held in South American - and Mexico for that matter - has been won by a team from the continent, lending further support to Colombia's already strong claims.

The verdict

Back them while you can at these prices! Colombia certainly seems a country to be backing before they have qualified, and the brave may wish to wait/hope for a couple of blips in the remainder of their campaign before jumping on board.

By the team they arrive at Brazil they will be one of the popular outsiders for the tournament, probably trading as short as 14.013/1-20.019/1 depending on form and injuries.