Two and a Half Goals Column: Expect goals at Anfield as Rodgers fights to survive

It's all a bit glum for Brendan Rodgers at present

The Inside Man predicts we'll see goals at Anfield as the Liverpool boss fights to keep his job, but what about this weekend's FA Cup ties? Goals or no goals, that is the question...

Saturday

Luton v Millwall

It seems their FA Cup 3rd round victory over Wolves really changed Luton.

Until then, they'd been a team involved in lots of open, high-scoring games. But it seems that in that 1-0 victory, they saw something, a possible template for success. As a result, they've since changed to a much tighter, more controlled style of play.

But don't just take my word for it. Luton's five games prior to facing Wolves produced 21 goals. By comparison, their five games since the Wolves match have yielded just six goals, including of course their headline-making 1-0 win at Norwich. The Hatters have changed to a system that they believe in. Expect them to stick with it on Saturday.

You might think Millwall would be full of swagger following their last-round victory over Aston Villa. But any such confidence will have been tempered by their struggles away from home. Failure to win any of their last six road games must have left the Lions feeling somewhat less than ferocious of late. Without doubt, I believe Millwall would settle for a draw here, and the chance to take this clash back to the relative comfort of the Den.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.9420/21

Oldham v Everton

For Oldham, this is welcome relief from their League One relegation scrap. Like the similarly impoverished Anne Hathaway in 'Les Miserables', the Latics have "dreamed a dream" of becoming part of FA Cup folklore.

But to do that, they must score goals. Oldham have kept just six clean sheets in 37 league and cup fixtures this season. But they do know where the net is, as demonstrated by their 3-2 win over Liverpool.

Oldham will try turn this into a shootout. It's what they do. Five of their six cup games this season have been high-scoring. While in the league, backing goals would have won you money in eight of their last ten matches.

You can also expect a positive approach from Everton. All four of their cup games this season have been high-scoring. Also, David Moyes is stalling on his contract renewal. He says he wants to see how Everton perform towards the end of the season. This means he's putting huge emphasis on a Champions League spot or FA Cup win. So expect a confident, aggressive Everton side, who'll be looking to avoid any unnecessary replays.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.558/15

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/market?id=1.108116396&exp=e

Sunday

Huddersfield v Wigan

I just don't believe the FA Cup is a priority for Wigan. The Premier League is the be all and end all for them in financial terms. And the extra games demanded by a good cup-run could easily damage their chances of league survival. Also, Roberto Martinez is no fool. So for him, games like this will be like an unwelcome visitor at Christmas. You just want them out of the way with as little fuss as possible.

With a possible relegation-decider against Reading next up, Martinez won't want any injuries. So expect a second-string Latics line-up here. This is nothing knew for Wigan though. And in each of their three FA Cup ties thus far, such team-tinkering has resulted in a low-scoring game.

That would put Huddersfield in with a great chance, apart from the fact that they also struggle to create goals. In their last six home games, Huddersfield have scored just three times. All six of those matches were low-scoring. But the Terriers do know how to put up a fight, having lost just four of 16 at home. All of which points to a low-scoring, quintessential cup tie.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.01/1

Liverpool v Swansea

Alas poor Liverpool, I knew them so well.

The domestic demise of Liverpool over the past 20 years has been hard to watch for any fan of good football. But while games at Anfield may no longer be a guarantee of a home win, they are a fairly safe bet for goals. The last five matches there have produced 18 goals. That would have made you money on four out of five occasions if backing goals. Moreover, 10 of Liverpool's last 11 games anywhere have been high-scoring.

Failure to beat Swansea could reportedly cost Brendan Rogers his job. But Liverpool's need to attack could play right into the hands of the Welsh side. Just last week they showed their ability to play on the counter, when ripping apart a QPR side who came needing to play the role of aggressors.

Yes, Swansea's away results have largely been low-scoring. But that's because home sides have been comfortable with biding their time in their search of three points. Liverpool cannot afford to be so patient, and on this occasion I'm anticipating an early strike that should prove the catalyst for a high-scoring game.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.768/11