The Punter's In-Play Blog: It's Kuchar or bust now

Matt Kuchar - Can he go all the way for The Punter

After yesterday's marathon, just four men remain at the WGC Accenture Match Play. Who can win just two more matches and lift the trophy? Read what our man thinks here...

10:40 - February 24, 2013
We're down to the final four at the WGC Accenture Match Play and mercifully, I'm still in the game.

As Paul Krishnamurty correctly predicted, Ryan Day knocked out one of my two remaining selections, Bubba Watson, in the round of 16, but Matt Kuchar, backed at 27.026/1 after round one, easily accounted for both Nicolas Colsaerts and Robert Garrigus and he now faces Day in the first of today's semi-finals, starting at 2.05 pm.

I thought I'd try and be clever last night and guarantee myself a finalist but it didn't work out. Graeme McDowell had disposed of Shane Lowry without too much fuss in the round of 16 and I felt he might just have a bit too much match play guile for Day in their quarter-final so I backed the Irishman in the outright market at 9.617/2.

G-Mac birdied the first three holes to go two-up but he played woefully after that and in what developed into a scruffy heat, Day edged out the Irishman with a par at the 18th to win 1 up.

In reaching the semis, Day has already secured a healthy profit for Joe Dyer, who tipped him up as his each way pick from the outset, and for Paul Krishnamurty, who also picked him out before the off here. And after adding Hunter Mahan to his outright portfolio after round one, at 21.020/1, Paul's now in a nice position. He's been doing his followers proud with his individual match selections too - for the second day running yesterday he tipped three-out-of-three winners. If you've been following Paul, or even if you haven't, make sure you look out for his advice today.

The second semi-final, between Mahan and Ian Poulter kicks-off at 2.15 and it should be an absolute belter. Defending champ, Mahan, against 2011 winner, Poults, - arguably the world's best two match play exponents on the planet going head-to-head. It's a real shame it's not the final. And that's why I'm doing nothing further with my bets...

Last year, Rory McIlroy put everything into his grudge semi-final against Lee Westwood and was a bit of a spent force in the final. Could that happen this time around?

I fancy Poulter to get the better of Mahan, as does the market, and I suspect if he does, he has more than enough self-belief and determination to put up an utterly professional performance in the final but I do wonder if Mahan would.

I'll be hoping the defending champ scrapes a win over Poulter in a bruising encounter, only to pitch-up against my man Kuchar in the final, a bit jaded and slightly off his game.

As for that first semi-final, if Kuchar and Day are in the same form as they were yesterday then I can only see one winner, and that's Kuchar. But it doesn't work like that I'm afraid, just ask anyone that backed Colsaerts before his round of 16 match against my man Kuchar. The Belgium Bomber was comfortably out-played yesterday and nowhere near in the form he'd shown over the first two days.

So, that's it for me, I've input a few small lay-backs on Kuchar in the outright market so if he goes fairly long odds-on at any stage, I'll make a healthy profit on the week but if he doesn't so be it. I'll be back tomorrow with my De-Brief.

11:00 - February 23, 2013
Yesterday was a day of typically mixed fortunes at the WGC Accenture World Match Play, with two of my four progressing and two getting eliminated but at one point it looked as though I was going to fare so much better.

Matt Kuchar edged past Sergio Garcia before Bubba Watson finally finished off Jim Furyk so at one point, my first two had won and my second two - Peter Hanson and Nick Watney, were both involved in extremely tight matches that could have gone either way. I could very easily have gotten all four through but it wasn't to be. Hanson lost on the final hole, when Webb Simpson made birdie, and Watney lost to Steve Stricker on the third extra hole.

Had all four progressed, I'd have been looking at the event in much greater detail, looking to lock-in profit and plotting my next move but now I just feel deflated and a long way from confident.

Paul Krishnamurty was the man to follow yesterday - with all three of his second round predictions winning and it doesn't bode well that he fancies Jason Day to get the better of Bubba today. As Paul points out here, Bubba didn't putt well yesterday and it took him far longer to finish-off Furyk than it should have done. If I'm honest, I think he's probably right - Day does look the most likely winner of that tie.

Kuchar faces the big-bombing Belgian, Nicolas Colsaerts, who Paul suggests today as a value play in the outright market and again, I find myself struggling to argue with him.

The most disappointing thing about today's round of 16 is that we won't get to see the matches live. Sky are at the mercy of the host broadcasters and they've decided not to go on air earlier than planned so we're going to miss three hours of play. The action starts shortly after 2.00pm but Sky don't go live until 5.00pm, by which time, the round of 16 matches will either be finished or very nearly finished.

My plan now is merely to hope for the best. I toyed with the idea of getting Hunter Mahan onside and I did think Tim Clark looked a fair price but I've decided to just let things roll and see what today brings. If, and it's a huge if, Bubba and Kuchar can get past Day and Colsaerts and then both win their respective quarter-final matches I'll be in clover, as they'll be meeting in the semis and I'll have a guaranteed finalist but to say I'm not confident is a sizable understatement.

10:00 - February 22, 2013
At the WGC Accenture Match Play, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods and the red-hot Charl Schwartzel have all fallen at the first hurdle and so have three of my four pre-event picks. Not a great start but it could have been worse...

I'm a bit miffed I layed back my bet on Shane Lowry to beat McIlroy but I'm thankful that I got on Bubba Watson in the outright market at a nice price.

Lee Westwood going out, courtesy of a weak bogey on the final hole, just about justified my decision to take it easy from the start but had he won, I wouldn't have been happy.

I'd written in my preview that Martin Kaymer, Bubba, Westwood, Nick Watney and Matt Kuchar all looked reasonably priced and I'd toyed with the idea of backing them all from the start. But there's nothing worse than laying out loads, only to find on day two that most of your picks have been knocked out early and you're left with a mountain to climb, so I took the cautious approach from the get-go.

On balance, because Westwood lost and I backed Bubba in the end anyway, I don't feel too bad about my strategy. Had I not backed Bubba and had Westwood beaten Cabrera-Bello, it's fair to say I'd have been feeling far less content this morning.

I've now added both Watney and Kuchar at what I think are still very reasonable prices and with Bubba getting through against Chris Wood and with Peter Hanson beating Thomas Bjorn, I still have one selection in each bracket. Let's see what today brings.

16:10 - February 21, 2013
Play's been put back another hour and we're now looking at a 6.30pm UK start.

15:10 - February 21, 2013
Play has been delayed again at the WGC Accenture Match Play, this time thanks to frost. They're now due to resume at 5.30pm UK time.

I've added one more player to the portfolio - Bubba Watson @ 55.054/1.

He's currently tied with Chris Wood after six holes but holds the advantage on the 7th. Bubba has 21 feet for birdie, whereas Wood hasn't found the green with his approach shot and is 98 feet from the hole.

Should Bubba win, he'd hopefully meet Ryan Moore in round two and if that happens, I'll have at least one player through to round three. It doesn't look like he's playing brilliantly but 55.054/1 was just too big to ignore.

One other thing to note is that Paul Lawire has written on his blog that his backs none too clever. I'm not laying off because it's a guessing game as to how bad it is but I thought it worth mentioning.

And finally, I've had a few tweets asking about the link to the Play by Play app mentioned yesterday. If you have a smart phone and you want to try out the app, please look me up on Twitter where I've posted the link.

22:30 - February 20, 2013
A smattering of snow fell before the final of the WGC Accenture Match Play two years ago and I assumed then that it was a freak occurrence but it seems not. So bad has the snowfall been today that play has stopped for the day, with ten matches yet to even start.

Obviously, with so little play completed I haven't too much to report yet but it looks as though I've lost the first of my four picks. Sergio Garcia has a 12-footer for birdie on the 15th hole which, should he make, would result in a 3 and 2 win for the Spaniard over my man Thongchai Jaidee.

I haven't added to my original picks yet and I haven't had any bets on the matches either. I did back Shane Lowry to beat Rory McIlroy when the weather looked bad but given they're coming back tomorrow and that the weather could be completely different, I've now layed that back.

So, very little to report but I have found a lovely little angle-in for trading in-running...

The leaderboard on the PGA Tour website was so inept earlier that it didn't even show how many holes had been completed in each match - a malady now remedied, but why waste time on that leaderboard when the worldglfchampionship.com mobile app has Play by Play!

I found it more by luck than judgement but if you can, check it out. For example, it shows that Graeme McDowell looks on the verge of losing the first hole to Padraig Harrington. G-Mac has 28 feet for par - Pod has just four.

It's going to be a long day tomorrow and quite how they'll progress I don't know. I assume they'll just keep going for as long as possible but that will mean by the end of the day, some players will be through to round three and some will have barely started round two.

Pre-Event Selections
Bobby Jones Bracket -Ryan Moore @ 80.079/1
Gary Player Bracket - Peter Hanson @ 91.0n/a Fixed Odds Market
Sam Snead Bracket - Paul Lawrie @ 140.0139/1
Ben Hogan Bracket - Thongchai Jaidee @ 190.0189/1

In-Play Bets
Bubba Watson @ 55.054/1
Nick Watney @ 34.033/1
Matt Kuchar @ 27.026/1
Graeme McDowell @ 9.617/2

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter