Handicappers' Corner: Will every post be a winning one for Overturn in the Arkle?

Overturn was a high-class hurdler and is now a high-class chaser

Timeform's jumps handicapper, Phil Turner, looks back on the weekend's action and highlights key performances...

"There seems to be a prejudice against making the running with a good horse, or even with a fancied one for that matter. However, under certain circumstances front-running tactics are highly appropriate."

So said the first edition of Timeform's Chasers & Hurdlers annual back in 1975/76 when discussing Night Nurse, whose unbeaten eight-race campaign included a pillar-to-post success in the Champion Hurdle. Night Nurse also made virtually all to win the Champion Hurdle again twelve months later and ended 1976/77 with a Timeform rating of h182, which remains the highest for a hurdler in our lengthy history.

Nevertheless, even after all these years, there is still a perception that front-runners are having to "do it the hard way" and run the risk of "setting the race up" for their more patiently-ridden rivals. More often than not, such assumptions are wide of the mark, particularly when it involves a horse who has repeatedly shown himself or herself to be perfectly at ease out in front.

"Why hold him up when he can jump the opposition silly? To do so is to waste one of his assets". Those sentiments may have come from that vintage essay on Night Nurse, who was a notably fluent jumper of both hurdles and fences, but such logic could equally apply to Overturn (Timeform rating c158p), whose own transition from top-class hurdler to top-class chaser continued with another flawless front-running display at Musselburgh on Sunday.

Admittedly all three of Overturn's novice chase wins have come in small fields (he's faced a total of just nine rivals to date and even one of them refused to race!) and the strength of their bare form can be questioned to an extent, but that shouldn't detract from the tremendous impression made by the nine-year-old on each occasion - particularly with regards to his jumping. 

Indeed, the latter quality was again very much in evidence at Musselburgh, where he jumped his main rival Tetlami (c132+) silly under a typically attacking ride from the front. Although recent Kempton winner Tetlami almost certainly wasn't at his best on the day, it was revealing that he simply couldn't keep up with Overturn's searching early gallop even before mistakes started to creep into his repertoire. Tetlami's stable-companion Simonsig (c162P), of course, will provide far sterner opposition in next month's Arkle Chase at Cheltenham and, should Overturn lose his 100% record over fences that day, the cause of defeat will almost certainly be due to a superior rival rather than front-running tactics.

Another novice chaser who's able to boast a perfect record of three wins from three starts after this weekend is Captain Conan (c150p), who scraped home to land the odds in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Saturday.  As that description would suggest, Captain Conan wasn't at his very best when beating Third Intention (c145$) by a neck for this latest success, particularly when one considers he'd beaten the same rival very convincingly on both previous starts over fences. However, he still did well to get up given how things unfolded and remains one to be positive about, with the two-and-a-mile Jewson Novices' Chase now his most likely Cheltenham Festival target.

Captain Conan was the only held-up winner at Sandown's all-chase card on Saturday, when it seemed unusually difficult to make up ground from off the pace due to the prevailing heavy conditions. In fact, four of the six winners made just about all of the running, whilst there were several who finished down the field on the card whose performances can probably be safely ignored - including Grand National hope Roberto Goldback (c159) and the Paul Nicholls-trained two-miler chaser Toubab (c144).

It was a similar story at Ffos Las on Saturday, where front runners also accounted for the majority of winners on what was very soggy ground. Chief amongst these was the popular mudlark Carruthers (c150), who rolled back the years when claiming a second course win of the winter (both under promising amateur Nico de Boinville rather than regular pilot Mattie Batchelor) in the West Wales National. That race rather fell apart, however, so the likelihood is Carruthers (who pulled well clear with runner-up Cannington Brook) will be undone by a hike in the weights for the remainder of the season.

By contrast, the exciting finish to Saturday's Towton Novices' Chase at Wetherby featured two horses, Goulanes (c133p) and Super Duty (c140+), who should continue to pay their way for the remainder of the campaign. Goulanes is still unbeaten under Rules, whilst it's an indication of how highly he is thought of by connections that was sent straight into Grade 2 company for this steeplechasing debut - he'd be an interesting runner in the four-mile John Oaksey National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. Super Duty, meanwhile, looked competitively-handicapped going into Saturday's race and, provided he remains on a similar mark, could be an interesting runner in one of the staying handicap chases at the Festival - particularly if able to adopt his usual prominent tactics!

Timeform's top-rated Arkle Chase entries:
SIMONSIG 162P
OVERTURN 158p
ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE 158  
AUPCHARLIE 151  
CAPTAIN CONAN 150p
BENEFFICIENT  148  
OSCARS WELL   147  
BAILY GREEN    147  
LORD WINDERMERE 146  

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