Find Me a 100 Winner: Three over-priced picks for the World Match Play

Paul Lawrie has an excellent record in matchplay

Outsiders often fare well in the lottery-like conditions of 18-hole matchplay golf, which could bode well for our weekly trading system. Read Paul Krishnamurty's three triple-figure priced recommendations here...

As regular followers of this column may have observed, there is only limited rhyme or reason to the business of trading big-priced outsiders. Some weeks, a tip that eventually turns out to be rubbish can yield almost instant profit due to a good start - (Ryan Palmer hitting single figures on the way to missing a top-50 last season springs to mind). On others such as last week with Emiliano Grillo, a pick can be in contention with a round to go, yet never shorten to anywhere near the lay target.

The beauty of the WGC Accenture Match Play is that most of that randomness is taken out of the equation. Thanks to a pre-planned draw, we should know precisely what our picks need to do in order to hit their lay targets. In this year's case, with the first lay order set at 10.09/1, a place in the quarter-finals will probably suffice. In other words, they need to win three matches. 

Usually the best trading strategy for this event involves picking one from each quarter, with a view to getting at least one of the semi-finalists. Once again, that is my main plan but so far as the outsiders are concerned, I can't see any point bothering with the Bobby Jones Bracket. In a section including Rory McIlroy, Charl Schwartzel and Bubba Watson to name just three leading candidates, it is very hard to envisage any of the triple-figure priced candidates emerging. I'm happier, therefore, to go in with just the three picks.

First up, the highly promising South African pair Brandon Grace and George Coetzee appear to be seriously underestimated. Granted, neither has much experience in the USA or matchplay pedigree, but these youngsters are proving virtually impossible to keep out of contention on the Race to Dubai.  After winning four titles, Grace finished sixth on last year's race and has already registered three top-sevens from four starts in 2013, twice in high-class desert events. Moreover, Grace is positioned in arguably the weakest bracket, where the big guns have poor tournament records.

Coetzee's route is much harder, starting with Martin Kaymer and potentially Lee Westwood, Hunter Mahan and Tiger Woods to follow. That tough draw, however, depends on those favourites negotiating their early matches and so far as the opening round is concerned, no way should Coetzee be more than three times the price of Kaymer. George didn't disgrace himself on last year's tournament debut when pitched against Rory McIlroy first up, and has improved considerably in the meantime. As a long-hitting, birdie-machine type, prone to the odd disaster hole that proves ruinous in strokeplay, Coetzee looks just the type to thrive in matchplay where a triple-bogey only costs one hole.

Finally, I'm in total agreement with Steve Rawlings about desert specialist Paul Lawrie. Lawrie played well in this last year, winning his first two matches, and having regularly thrived in this specialised format, is insulted by odds of 140.0139/1. The former Open champ was arguably the best player at last year's Volvo World Matchplay and also performed well on both his Ryder Cup appearances. He has a perfectly winnable opener against debutant Scott Piercy and, if results go his way, the Sam Snead Bracket could open up nicely.

The trading advice is to stake two units on each player, then place lay orders at 10.09/1 and 3.02/1. If one of our trio hits the first target, we'll triple our initial outlay.

Recommended Bets

Back Brandon Grace 2u @ 140.0139/1
Back George Coetzee 2u @ 140.0139/1
Back Paul Lawrie 2u @ 140.0139/1

Place order to lay each player 18u @ 10.09/1
Place order to lay each player 20u @ 3.02/1

Updated 2013 Stats: -19 units