Can betting on soccer draws actually make money?

Can betting on soccer draws actually make money?

By Jack Ratcliffe Feb 15, 2013

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Betting on draws isn’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but it could be one of the most profitable. We investigated betting in a set numeric pattern on draws with odds of 2.618 or more to see whether the Fibonacci betting system is a magic bullet for soccer betting profits.

The essence of the Fibonacci Strategy – published in 2007 by Fragiskos Archontakis and Evan Osborne- is simple: bet on a draw, and if you lose, bet on another one. Repeat this process until you win. There are only two additional – and vital – rules to follow:

Only bet on draws when the probability is above 2.618

Increase your betting stake in a way that follows the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 etc.

The idea is based upon a theory from 1989 that the draw is the most difficult for bookmakers to predict, and therefore can be exploited. The idea is that as long as you continually increase your stake, any win will overcome your previous losses.

The Fibonacci Strategy in practice

Looking at data from the 2011/12 Premier League, there were 93 draws in 380 games – therefore 24.5% of all games ended in a tie. Interestingly, the odds for a potential draw in all 380 ties were above the 2.618 threshold suggested as the lower limit by Archontakis and Osborne. This means there should be – on average – a payout every four games. This means the winning stake would be the fourth Fibonacci number: 5, with a total bet each time 10 (the winning stake added to the failing three stakes before it: 1, 1, and 3). Considering the average odds for a draw over the season were 4.203, this means that the average winnings would be 21.02 (5 stake multiplied by the odds), with a profit of 11.02 when the stakes have been subtracted. Over 380 games, this equates to a theoretical profit of 1786.7 – all from an initial stake of just 1.

Fibonacci Strategy Drawbacks

However, there are numerous practical limitations that prevent the Fibonacci sequence from printing money. For a start, many games are played concurrently, meaning there’s no option to increase your stake to the next Fibonacci number if a draw doesn’t occur, as the games will finish at the same time. Instead, bettors might consider applying a Fibonacci betting sequence to individual teams. However, this means that long streaks without draws could cause huge holes in bettors’ bank balances. Looking at the longest Premier League streak without a draw (Manchester United in 2008/09), the Red Devils went 20 games without drawing, before finally succumbing to a 0-0 tie with Arsenal. Because the Fibonacci sequence increases exponentially, bettors would have to have bet 10,946 on that final game to follow the sequence. Including that bet, anyone following the betting system would had to have staked 28,656 – a huge amount for a system that usually provides winnings of just 21.02. The odds for a draw on that game were 4.1 however, which would have provided winnings of 44,878.60, or a profit of 16.222.60. With Fibonacci, the increased stakes also provide impressive returns.

The Fibonacci Sequence explained

The Fibonacci sequence is one of the most widely known numeric sequences in mathematics, characterised by its simple formula:

N3 = N1 + N2 

This indicates that (after the two starting numbers), each additional number in the sequence is the sum of the two preceding numbers. For example, the Fibonacci sequence begins 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21. Looking at the start of the sequence:

N1 = 1, N2 = 1, and therefore N3 = 2

N1 = 1, N2 = 2, and therefore N3 = 3

N1 = 2, N2 = 3, and therefore N3 = 5

N1 = 3, N2 = 5, and therefore N3 = 38

*Odds subject to change

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