Investigating ATP World Tour Final Head-to-Heads

Investigating ATP World Tour Final Head-to-Heads

By Jack Ratcliffe Nov 5, 2012

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The ATP World Tour Finals is the only time group betting is available in men’s tennis, bringing with it a new dynamic. With the players guaranteed a match against each of their three group rivals, investigating their form against each other is essential for placing an informed bet.

We previously looked at how the top three – Djokovic, Federer and Murray – fared against Top 8 players so far this season. This gives an indication of how they might perform over the whole ATP World Tour Finals period, but doesn’t take into account the unique factors of each group.

To enhance analysis of ATP World Tour Finals group betting, players’ head-to-head records must be taken into account (click here to see the latest Group A ATP World Tour Finals odds, and here for Group B).

Group A – Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Berdych

The head-to-head win rate for 2012 shows that Group A is the more equally-balanced group, with Novak Djokovic leading the standards with a 72.72% win rate over his group mates (he has played his fellow competitors 11 times this season, Berdych twice, Tsonga three times and the remainder Murray).

The Serbian’s 2012 record shows that Murray is his only group mate to have toppled him, winning 50% of their encounters. Delving deeper into the data shows that Murray has won one more set over his rival in their contests, although Djokovic has won four more games.

Djokovic hasn’t lost to either Berdych or Tsonga in 2012.

Andy Murray holds a 60% win rate against Group B members, having faltered to Djokovic three times and Berdych once. Again, Murray holds a one-set advantage over Berdych over their two matches, although Berdych has won one more game.

Somewhat shockingly, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has not won against his group-mates this season, averaging a 1.67 set and four game deficit per contest. Tomas Berdych boasts a 42.86% win rate – a number bolstered by two victories over Tsonga.

Group B – Federer, Ferrer, Del Potro, Tipsarevic

Roger Federer lead’s Group B’s head-to-head standings with an impressive 88.9% win record over his rivals. Seven of his nine games came against del Potro, however, meaning he’s faced Ferrer and Tipsarevic just once each this season (and won by two sets each time).

Janko Tipsarevic is certainly the ATP World Tour Finals group betting underdog, having not beaten any of his rivals this season. In fact, he’s only played twice: once each against Ferrer and Federer, showing that he hasn’t even got into a position to challenge these players.

Juan Martin del Potro‘s win percentage is 11.1% – having won once against Federer this season. He’s lost twice to Ferrer, and is yet to play Tipsarevic, which could prove an interesting contest for bettors.

David Ferrer boasts an impressive 75% win percentage, overcoming everyone but Federer at least once this season.

Other Factors

The above information is useful when used in combinations with other factors relating to ATP World Tour Finals group betting. Form indoors and on hard surfaces, for example, could both be investigated separately and in combination to get a clearer picture of how the player’s will perform.

To get started, head to the official ATP World Tour website has broken down the players by serve points won (1st and 2nd), break points saved and service games won – http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2012/11/Features/RICOH-MatchFacts-London-Season-Finale-Contenders-Compared.aspx.

*Odds subject to change

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