The most simple but misunderstood prop bet

The most simple but misunderstood prop bet

By Mirio Mella Jan 25, 2013

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As one of the most high profile betting events in the sports calendar the Super Bowl provides a huge variety of weird and wonderful betting propositions. The pre-game coin toss may be entirely random, but it has become one of the most popular and yet misunderstood Super Bowl bets.

The coin toss at the Super Bowl (click here to see the latest coin toss odds) has assumed such importance that a specially minted coin is used, with both teams appearing on the Tails side and the venue and year on the Heads side. Because it isn’t a standard issue coin, you can often find suggestions that the coin maybe somehow biased. This is fun for conspiracy theorists, but is of course nonsense.

Who flips?

The coin toss has assumed such significance that since 1978 a nominated celebrity has flipped it. This has added to the spectacle of the coin toss, but it doesn’t always go smoothly. In 2012 Curtis Martin, an inductee to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, was set to flip the coin but ended up as a spectator to referee John Parry who mistakenly took the honours.

Who calls & who chooses?

The NFC is designated as the home team for every odd-numbered Super Bowl , so in 2013 – Super XLVII or 47 to those who didn’t study Latin – the San Francisco 49ers are the home side. This designation allows them to choose which colour jerseys to wear, with the visitors – in this case the Baltimore Ravens – getting to call the coin.

What does it mean?

After the visitors choose heads or tails, the referee confirms the call mid-toss. This ensures that there is no mistaking what was said – a rule change resulting from the 1998 Thanksgiving Day Game between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Detroit Lions.

On that occassion, Referee Phil Luckett heard Steelers running back Jerome Bettis call heads, while Bettis swears he said tails. When the coin landed tails side-up, Luckett awards possesion to the Lions, who went on to win the game – and change coin toss rules forever.

The team that wins the coin toss then has the option of choosing to receive the ball, or to select which side they wish to start.

To kick or receive?

Given that ends provides little or no advantage, the standard choice is to receive. Only twice in 46 Super Bowls have a team chosen to kick rather than receive. The standard logic is that starting the game on an offensive drive is preferable, with the chance of an early confidence boosting score.

An especially defensive team could kick, feeling confident enough to shut the opponent’s early drive out, and start the second half with the ball.

Is winning the flip significant?

In 46 Super Bowls the winner of the coin toss has gone on to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy 22 times (48%) losing 24 times (52%). So when comes down to it, there seems to be little significance to the game outcome.

The magical NFC streak

There is nothing wrong with indulging with fun bets like the coin toss so long as you are clear that it is entirely random, and provides poor value, and that you keep these principles in mind if you intend to bet for profit.

One of the reasons that the coin toss has captured bettors’ imagination is that from 1998-2011 the NFC recorded 14 consecutive wins – that’s 2to the power of 14 or decimal odds of 16,001. This gave rise to a familiar misconception about random events such as a coin toss.

Many bettors fail to see that as the coin has no memory – each flip is totally independent – such a streak isn’t statistically significant, and this is explained by the law of large numbers. This is discussed in a separate article regarding the Gambler’s Fallacy. This has given rise to plenty of speculation as to the coins being biased, potentially because they are especially made for the occasion.

Who will win Super Bowl 47? Click here for the latest game odds

Fun, but understand value

Putting the fun element to one side, on its own, the coin toss is a bad bet. The odds are 50/50 and therefore should be priced at 2.0/2.0 on both sides, with zero edge or margin. You won’t find any bookmaker however, offering this, and this provides a great and simple illustration of how bookmakers work, and also how they differ in the value they offer.

Pinnacle Sports price the coin toss at 1.971/1.971, which is a margin of just 1.5% – as low as you’ll find online, and that policy applies to regular markets. So though you can bet with your friend on the result of the coin-toss, when you bet with a bookmaker an edge is a given, so you should look for the smallest.

Many other bookmakers are offering this bet at 1.871/1.871 which is a 7% margin. If you want to maximise your return your choice should be clear, and even though this is just a fun bet, the principle is the same whatever you are betting on, you want best value.

Click here to see the latest odds for the Super Bowl coin toss

Alternatively click here to see the latest odds on other game props

*Odds subject to change

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