WSOP Final Table: What the Poker Odds Say?

WSOP Final Table: What the Poker Odds Say?

By Michael Gales Oct 19, 2012

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With the 2012 World Series Of Poker (WSOP) final table beginning on October 28th the final nine have the opportunity to win the 8th biggest prize in poker history. This article looks at WSOP trends and the odds for each player winning.

After starting with 6,598 players from 82 different countries, aged from 21 to 92, just nine remain with hopes of winning the coveted WSOP bracelet and the 8,527,982 prize.

Without a ‘household name’ on the 2012 WSOP final table, it is important to take note of the WSOP trends and odds before placing a bet with the best available odds at Pinnacle Sports.

Leader Must Make Chips Count

26-year-old Jesse Sylvia will sit down at the final table as the chip leader (43,875,000) and the 4.480* favourite at Pinnacle Sports.

The American holds an impressive 14,500,000-chip advantage over second place Andras Koroknai, which understandably makes him the outright favourite before the players sit down.

However, just because Sylvia is the chip leader there is no guarantee he will win the WSOP bracelet.

Since 2002, the chip-leader going into the final table has won the WSOP bracelet on just four occasions. Before Jonathan Duhamel won in 2010, the chip leader had not won since 2006.

On average the winner has been the third-highest stack holder going into the final table, however no one in third has actually ever won, with the mode value suggesting the chip leader will prevail.

Is Age a Key Factor in the WSOP Main Event?

Interestingly there has been an emerging trend at the WSOP since 2008 with the last four winners all aged between 21and 23. In the previous six years the youngest winner was 26-year-old amateur Chris Moneymaker.

The last four winners have been aged between 21 & 23

The run of youthful winners could be put down to the trickle down from the boom of online poker over the last decade, producing of youthful dominance at the WSOP.

At the 2012 WSOP final table only Jacob Balsiger is under 23 (with four players aged between 24 -27) and if he were to prevail he would become the youngest ever winner. However, with odds of 12.390* and the second lowest stack Balsiger has a lot to do.

At the other end of the spectrum, 57-year-old Steven Gee (10.780*) will look to win his second WSOP bracelet (2010 $1,000 No Limit Hold’Em). Gee will look to take advantage of his ‘live’ experience, as he plays almost exclusively live unlike the younger players.

Lack of Big Name Leaves WSOP Table Open

The lack of a ‘big name’ is notable in the 2012 WSOP, and nothing highlights this more than Phil Hellmuth’s record when compared to that of the final table.

Hellmuth is the most successful player in WSOP history , with 13 bracelets, 95 cashes and $12,189,531 in prize money. Comparing his record against the table (nine players) shows just two WSOP bracelet wins, 33 cashes and just $2,082,327 in aggregate prize money.

24-year-old Greg Merson has been dominating online poker for a half-decade, but switched to live play to prepare for the 2012 WSOP. Once there, he entered seven events, winning one, making two additional final tables and cashing a total of five times.

Merson arrives at the final table in third-place on chip count, and if he wins the 2012 WSOP main event will also claim the WSOP Player of the Year award. As the man in-form and with experience playing most of the table in the past, odds of 4.770* suggest he has a solid chance to claim his second bracelet.

Odds Suggest American Winner

The history of the WSOP main event shows Americans have dominated with just 8 (19%) non-Americans winning the bracelet in 42 events. However, in the last decade it’s a split 50/50, while the last five years have seen just one American emerge victorious.

With this said the 2012 final table is made up of eight Americans, so it looks increasingly likely the winner will become the 35th American in 43 years.

In addition to Silvia, Merson, Balsinger and Gee the other American poker players battling for the 2012 WSOP main event bracelet are Russell Thomas (7.760*), commodity broker Michael Esposito (10.600*), 32-year-old Jeremy Ausmus (9.320*) and Texan Robert Salaburu (14.120*).

The one non-American on the final table is Hungarian Andras Koroknai (5.220*) who sits in second-place going into the final table. The 30-year-old won the World Poker Tour’s 2010 L.A. Poker Classic, and is backed by a large group of vocal supporters.

*Odds subject to change

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