Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Make a winning start to Cheltenham 2013

Puffin Billy (right) on his way to winning at Ascot.

As the countdown to Cheltenham begins to build up a head of steam, Timeform's Matt Gardner attempts to find the winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle...

The anticipation of what Cheltenham 2013 has to offer will at no stage, no matter how excited you are now, exceed the level at which it will be at around 13:28 on March 12. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the opening race of the meeting and accruing that extra bit of punting confidence by nailing the winner will do wonders for your finances throughout the week- at least that's what I thought as I celebrated the success of Cinders And Ashes last year. What it actually brought about was a run of dismal personal results, abated only slightly on the Thursday by the tiniest of wagers on Cape Tribulation, but by that time my wallet, and confidence, had already been well and truly decimated. 

Nevertheless the theory still stands that winners lead to more winners, the Midas touch, "I'm feeling lucky now", and all the other jargon that regularly gets wheeled out by someone who's just backed the victor, which heaps that bit of additional pressure upon our selection for this race. Where shall we begin in our quest for the winner? Well, seeing as the two at the head of the market are trained in Ireland we best cram ourselves onto a Ryanair flight across the Irish Sea. 

Speaking of Ryanair, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary is the owner of Gigginstown House Stud who look set to be represented by the Willie Mullins-trained Un Atout, an as yet unbeaten five-year-old. By the French stallion Robin des Champs, whose progeny Mullins has excelled with in recent years with the likes of Quevega, Sir des Champs and Sous Les Cieux flying the flag, Un Atout first came onto the radar when making a winning racecourse debut at Naas last January, smashing his rivals by 24 lengths. He looked a good prospect when successful on his hurdles bow in December but improved markedly upon that next time, looking one of the best seen in the division as yet when again winning by a wide margin at Naas, jumping soundly in the main. He has created a big impression in a short space of time over hurdles and looks the one to beat in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on February 9 and, were success to come just as easily there, his price for this contest could well shorten considerably. 

A likely rival in the Deloitte is Moscow Mannon, who enjoyed a profitable season in bumpers last term as he won three of the five he contested. His season ended with an excellent fourth-placed effort in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, with conditions that day possibly just a shade too quick for him to be seen to full advantage as he was tapped for toe upon entering the straight, keeping on well but unable to get on terms with the principals. He looked the type to do well over hurdles and duly made a highly encouraging start at Navan after nine months off, beating The Paparrazi Kid by two and three-quarter lengths, and he strikes as being open to significant improvement. However, although yet to race beyond two miles the suspicion is that he will prove suited by two and a half and, with connections suggesting that were the ground to again come up on the quicker side he may run in the Neptune, he is difficult to recommend as an ante-post play for this.

Another to have made a taking start to life over hurdles is Jezki, who maintained his unbeaten record over timber with a six length defeat of Waaheb at Leopardstown over Christmas. He has progressed with each and every start in this sphere and at this stage is the leading contender on form for the Supreme, although that could change were Un Atout to set about demolishing his rivals in the Deloitte. The gripe I have with Jezki is price, the five-year-old presently trading at 4.94/1 which seems on the short side when compared with the next couple we must discuss. 

The way you view the price of the Nicky Henderson-trained My Tent Or Yours depends very much upon whether you think he will win the Betfair Hurdle as, were he to prove triumphant there, the 11.5n/a on offer for the Supreme would be snapped up instantly. His defeat of subsequent Grade 1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin du Seuil at Ascot in November advertises his claims admirably and he could hardly have been more impressive at Huntingdon last time, though a mark of 149 for the Betfair looks stiff enough given that Darlan, who was at a similar stage in his career, was thought to face a difficult task off 146 in the same race last year. Were he to be beaten in the Betfair, not out of sight but by a few lengths, his price for the Supreme is likely to be fairly static so it is not worth risking him winning at Newbury and therefore being cut for Cheltenham. Advice: Back him for the Supreme prior to the Betfair Hurdle and hope that he hacks up there.

Currently trading at the same price as the aforementioned My Tent Or Yours is Puffin Billy, who has looked hugely exciting on the four occasions he has taken to the track so far. Two successful outings in bumpers led to his hurdling debut at Newbury, where he created an excellent impression in a race run at a ridiculously slow pace, but he posted a greater performance on the figures when running out a facile winner of a Grade 2 at Ascot. There is still room for improvement in his jumping and his target is as yet unconfirmed, as he could run in the Neptune if the ground were good, but he shows so much speed that he seems highly likely to cope with the demands of this race. In short, the Oliver Sherwood-trained five-year-old could make the 11.5n/a available at present look like an absolute gift come March 12. 

The main contenders we have now dealt with but it would be wrong were we not to mention a number of others that also have a chance. River Maigue couldn't have won any more easily than he did at Kempton over Christmas but, for all that he seems sure to go onto better things, he may just find one or two too good here. Similar sentiments go out to both New Year's Eve and Pique Sous, whilst Melodic Rendezvous' best form has come on heavy ground and he may not be suited by the usual Festival conditions. 

Dodging Bullets is a horse I have a bit of a soft spot for and it is easy to forget that he remains a novice; his fourth-placed effort in the Triumph last year was a highly creditable feat given it was just his second start over hurdles and he seemed unsuited by the steady pace in the Christmas Hurdle on his most recent start. However he trades at 14.013/1, just a few points bigger than Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours, and I know who I would rather be backing. 

"Which race will he go for?" is a well-worn phrase in Cheltenham ante-post betting, and we must utter it once more with regards to Puffin Billy. At the prices however he is just too big to ignore for this contest and we would be kicking ourselves were he to be sent off at closer to 5.04/1 on the day, so he is a must-have addition to our plays. The advice with My Tent Or Yours is to back him for this race before the Betfair Hurdle safe in the knowledge that there is nothing to lose but everything to gain as, were he to win he goes off considerably shorter at Cheltenham and were he to be beaten he goes off at around the same price. Perhaps we have found the opening winner of the Festival and we will feel incredible at about 13:35, just as the cash hits our palms, but the rest of the week is up to you. All the best. 

Recommendations:
Back Puffin Billy @ 11.5n/a
Back My Tent Or Yours @ 11.5n/a prior to the Betfair Hurdle

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