Two and a Half Goals Column: Expect few goals at Elland Road

Will Warnock's Leeds stifle Tottenham on Sunday?

The Inside Man assesses four FA Cup ties this weekend to determine whether we'll see Under or Over 2.5 Goals...

Saturday

Stoke v Manchester City

Roberto Mancini has failed to win at the Britannia Stadium in five attempts - a run that has every chance of continuing in this FA Cup clash.

In addition to that, four of these sides' last five meetings anywhere have ended 1-1. This gives you an idea of how well Stoke negate City's obvious strengths.

That said, in their last league meeting, City cantered to a 3-0 victory, and yes, if Stoke aren't fired up, an easy City win is a possibility. But this is a Cup competition in which Stoke have reached the final and then the quarter-finals in their last two attempts. Stoke know they won't win the league and so, understandably, they care about the Cup. Home advantage will also be a big boost for the Potters, who'll be keen to avenge their 1-0 loss to City in the 2011 final.

For City, this is a thorny fixture. Mancini knows an FA Cup trophy alone isn't likely to keep him his job. So his priority has to be the league. That makes this fixture an unnecessary evil, against opponents who are strongly motivated and well equipped to make City struggle.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.981/1

Macclesfield v Wigan

Wigan really won't want this game. Their season is again all about Premier League survival. All the Cup offers is a chance for players to get tired and possibly even injured. And worse than losing this match, would be to have to replay it. Assuming that, I expect Wigan to field a weakened side but one which will throw caution to the wind by taking an attacking approach. It's a chance for the younger players to show Roberto Martinez what they can do.

Whereas for Conference side Macclesfield, this is a chance to get their name back in the big time. Relegated from the league last year, this is the first time the club have reached the 4th round of the FA Cup in their 139 year history. Their motivation could not be any higher and they'll be feeling confident of producing yet another upset having already dispatched Championship high-fliers Cardiff 2-1 in the previous round.

Four of Wigan's last five away games have been high-scoring, indicating they can be got-at on their travels, while Macclesfield's last five at home have also seen four thrillers, which again tells us to expect an open and attacking encounter.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.814/5

Sunday

Brentford v Chelsea

Given Chelsea's recent form, absolutely anything could happen here, with the Blues having dished out some heavy-handed thumpings recently, only to combine them with disastrous defeats in both the league and Carling Cup.

There is a pattern to their inconsistency though, with success and failure alternating. So we would be prudent to expect the Blues to bounce back following their recent Cup disappointment against Swansea.

Given Chelsea's record of boom or bust under Rafa Benitez, it's hard to see this being one of the failures. To start with Brentford are two divisions lower down the footballing ladder. They've also conceded at least two goals in three of their last four home games, and as a result are without a victory at Griffin Park in the past six weeks.

Chelsea's disappointments have tended to come in low-scoring games, where their opponents held firm at the back. But Brentford simply don't look capable of this, indicating that it's the Bees who could find themselves feeling the sting of a Chelsea side still smarting from that scandal-ridden defeat in midweek.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.618/13

Leeds v Tottenham

Here's what the FA Cup is all about, with sleeping giants Leeds more than capable of upsetting Spurs.

To try to achieve that, Leeds are likely to stick with the grinding approach to home games that's seen four of their last five go low-scoring. Three 1-0 victories in that run indicates how they're likely to tackle this match. And just three defeats in 14 games at Elland Road this season tells you Spurs will face a stiff challenge if they're to book their place in the 5th round.

The main positive for Tottenham is that they should be up for the Cup this year. It offers their most realistic chance of silverware, while manager Andre Villas Boas is still insecure enough in his position that he needs some kind of tangible success to win-over fans and Board members alike.

With three clean sheets in their last five away games, Spurs have a back line strong enough to cope with the close scrutiny of a rough and tumble Cup tie. They're also likely to value being in the competition enough to settle for a draw and the chance to finish the job at White Hart Lane.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.427/5