Chris Wood, poised to break his duck?
Chris Wood has opened up a three-shot lead in Qatar but all that's done is offer up some value, according to our man. He's picked out a couple to take him on with and he gives his verdict on an intriguing first day at the Farmers, where a resurgent Tiger Woods was the big story...
15:15 - January 26, 2013
The Qatar Masters looked devilishly tricky at halfway and I'm very glad I left the event alone yesterday. My one realistic hope was Ricardo Santos but a four-putt double-bogey on the 8th hole soon put pay to his chances on a day that saw all the leaders struggle, even experienced Ryder Cuppers, Martin Kaymer and Sergio Garcia.
Bristol's Chris Wood, possibly inspired by the presence of the Manchester United squad (his favourite team), shot to the top of the leaderboard with a scintillating third round 64. A score matched on the day by Simon Khan, who now sits in a tie for second alongside Alexander Noren and Michael Campbell, with Sergio Garcia and Branden Grace, a shot further back, in a tie for 5th on -11. Jbe Kruger, Thorbjorn Olesen, George Coetzee and Marcus Fraser are all -10.
Wood trades at 2.8415/8 and that isn't remotely tempting. He's still looking for his first European Tour title and whilst it will surely eventually come, I suspect when it does it will be from off the pace.
I've backed Grace, at 11.010/1 and I'm also taking a chance on Marcus Fraser, at 55.0054/1.
Grace won four times on Tour last year and on each occasion he did it in style, demonstrating in no uncertain terms that he has the bottle to take a title if given half a chance and if it comes down to battle of nerves, which I very much suspect it will do, he could be the one.
Fraser isn't the most reliable in-contention performer, as demonstrated again today when, playing in the final two-ball with Martin Kaymer, he bogeyed the 1st and 6th holes, before relaxing and picking up his first birdie of the day on the 7th. He's clearly in fine form and I suspect he'll play infinitely better tomorrow when away from the limelight of the final two-ball and 55.054/1 was just too big.
I can see it being a busy day's trading tomorrow and I'll be looking to cover any moves from the pack. If the past is any indication of the future, Wood will struggle and players some distance from the lead still hold a chance. In fact, if I see any ridiculously big prices later I may add to the portfolio today and if I do, I'll be back to let you know.
I was really looking forward to the Farmers Insurance Open, and so far it certainly hasn't disappointed.
The withdrawal of my big fancy, Bubba Watson, was frustrating, my decision to up my states on Phil Michelson was just plain daft and the sight of Graham DeLaet (who I back with regularity) atop of the very early leaderboard irritating but, after that, day one developed into a captivating one.
Lefty played woefully all day and he put it down to lethargy, claiming his concentration levels weren't what they should have been but with hindsight, the furore over his tax affairs, all his own doing, must have had a huge bearing on his lacklustre display. Having shot just level par on the easier North Course, he trails first round leaders Brandt Snedeker and KJ Choi by fully seven strokes and he'll need to perform miracles over the next three days just to contend. But that's enough about Lefty; the fascinating story on day one was the performance of Tiger Woods...
Assessing Tiger used to be such a simple task. He'd turn up and pretty soon you'd know which Tiger was on display. If it was here at Torrey Pines, Congressional, Bay Hill or Sherwood Country Club, he'd usually start well, move through the gears and power away from the field. Elsewhere it was a little trickier but if the machine got rolling there was usually only one result, another W for Eldrick but it's a lot trickier to gauge nowadays, in fact, it's a bloody mystery.
Although Torrey Pines is one of Woods' favourite hunting grounds, I barely considered backing him this week after his decidedly poor performance in Abu Dhabi last week but with hindsight, was last week all about a nice big wad of appearance money, purportedly $3m, and the promotion of new Nike buddy, Rory McIlroy? Who knows? You'd imagine he was in game-mode, after all, he'd finished tied third there twelve months previous but there's little doubt that his performance yesterday, back home in California, was a considerable step-up on what we witnessed in Abu Dhabi.
As if all that wasn't confusing enough, his finish to round one was hard to fathom also. After double-bogeying the 4th hole, on the tougher South Course, Woods hit a high of 12.011/1, and it looked as though he was picking up from where he left off last week but no, it's seemed to awaken the old Tiger, the undefeatable machine, the undisputed King of Torrey Pines. He played the next nine holes in seven under par and was matched at just 2.8415/8 but just when it looked like the old masters was back, he put in a distinctly drab finish - bogeying two of the last four and only paring the par five 18th.
Judges that know infinitely more about golf swings than I do, claim that the new Sean Foley designed and constructed Tiger swing isn't as able to withstand the pressure of in-contention play as well his old one. Whether that theory is correct or not, I don't know but it certainly seems to be the case that where he once used to pulverise the field, he now just dithers.
It isn't all about Woods. Tied at the top with defending champ, Snedeker, who played on the North Course yesterday, Choi's opening round on the South Course was very special and quite unexpected. And the likes of in-form course specialist, Charles Howell III, and 2009 champ, Nick Watney, are right on the premises but I can't help thinking Woods is the man to beat.
I played about in-running, after he'd eagled the 6th, and I got him onside at an average of 6.611/2, albeit modestly. I perhaps should have layed some back but that's easy to say now, the scruffy finish caught me out as much as it did everyone else and when he hit odds of less than 3.02/1 so early on in the event last night, I didn't for one moment think I should lay any off, more that I was just glad to be on.
We'll see what the week brings; I know I certainly can't fathom it out. What you get from Tiger in the mix nowadays is often unpredictable but I do know that after years and years of seeing him demolish the opposition here at Torrey Pines, I saw enough last night to know I'd rather be with than against and if I wasn't already on, I'd be playing the 5.59/2 that he trades at now - even if it's just for old time's sake.
17:10 - January 25, 2013
Unfortunately, my big fancy, Bubba Watson, has just withdrawn from the Farmers Insurance Open, so I've doubled my wager on Phil Mickelson. I'm disappointed he's out but at least he didn't start and then pull-out.
16:00 - January 25, 2013
The first thing I have to do is make an apology. As you'll see from the bets listed below, at the Qatar Masters, I've backed Ricardo Santos, who was completely unmentioned in my preview and is now tied for the lead!
I wrote about the correlation between Doha and Ocenico Victoria Golf Course in Portugal in the said preview and after it was published, I received this tweet form a guy named Luke, @GoodLuke.
"Hi Steve, if there's correlation with Oceanico Victoria Ricardo Santos is a good e/w bet. His home course, 4th last week."
I had no idea that Ocenico Victoria was Santos' home course before Luke's tweet; otherwise he'd have been backed and covered in the preview. I'd been quite impressed with him in the mix last week and I'd considered backing him anyway, so once I'd read Luke's tweet, I had to get him onside.
If you're not already on Twitter, I'd really give it some consideration. Many pros tweet lots of useful info and there are a number of extremely knowledgeable and approachable golf judges on there too. I'm old enough not to be that big on change, I've had the same slippers for three years, but I have to admit,Twitter is proving to be an essential tool.
Anyway, onto to the event itself and although Santos ended day one on top, not everything went smoothly. With the exception of Garth Mulroy, all my picks disappointed to varying degrees and yet another error on the European Tour website's leaderboard cost me a few quid.
I thought Michael Hoey looked a fair price at 90.089/1 as he approached the last four holes on a score of -4. He played those last four in level par, which was a bit disappointing, but then half-an-hour after he'd finished his score changed to -2! I hadn't had much on but it's so irritating. I won't keep moaning about it, I can bore myself half to death with the subject, but player's scores are often wrong and barely a day goes by without it just giving up the ghost for long periods. This game's hard enough without scores being posted incorrectly!
So what now? With two rounds to go the leaderboard is crowded and the betting still open. Somewhat irritatingly, last week's selection, Martin Kaymer, who played poorly in Abu Dhabi, where he'd won three times previous, is playing markedly better here, at a venue he's never played well at before! He's in the logjam at the top on -9 and he's the favourite, albeit only just.
Alongside Kaymer are Marcus Fraser, Santos (who missed a couple of short putts today) and Sergio Garcia, who trades at just a fraction bigger than the German. If I had to back one of the two market leaders it would be Garcia. Kaymer said he got a bit lucky with his putter today and Garcia looked superb. The Spaniard's course form is far stronger than Kaymer's too but we've seen it all before with Sergio. He can very quickly go from looking brilliant to struggling and I'm going to leave the event alone for now. There are plenty of dangers lurking and there's still a very long way to go.
Thorbjorn Olesen and George Coetzee are in the group of players just one shot off the lead and the likes of Branden Grace Paul Casey, Alex Noren, Justin Rose and even Louis Oosthuizen, five back on -4, are still in this, along with a myriad of lesser lights. Keeping the powder dry is the only logical thing to do.
It feels very strange to be halfway through the European action before the US event has even started and I'm looking forward to the Farmers Insurance Open getting underway. And as I did in Qatar, I've added to my original pick before the off.
I wrote in my preview about the likely drift on Phil Mickelson, and lo and behold, out he walked. I put what I thought was a very ambitious small bet at 22.021/1 into the market and it's been easily matched. And I've also added Justin Leonard...
After a dry spell, the course is reportedly running faster than normal this year and given the extra run on the fairways, that should help the shorter hitters. Leonard was never out of the top-ten last year, eventually finishing tied 8th and that was his first appearance in the event since finishing 5th in 2008, after starting day two in a tie for 123rd! I've had a small bet to win at 560.0559/1 and very unusually for me, I've had a stake-saving wager in the top-ten market at 17.5n/a and a very small play for a top-five finish too, at 55.054/1.
Qatar Masters Pre-Event Selections
Paul Lawrie @ 42.041/1
Rafael Cabrera-Bello @ 55.054/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 100.099/1
Garth Mulroy @ 280.0279/1
Ricardo Santos @ 240.0239/1 - Added after the preview was posted
In-Running Bets:
Michael Hoey @ 90.089/1
Branden Grace @ 11.010/1
Marcus Fraser @ 55.054/1
Farmers Insurance Open Pre-Event Selections:
Bubba Watson @ 17.5n/a (Withdrew before the off)
Phil Mickelson @ an average of 21.020/1
Justin Leonard @ 560.0559/1
Justin Leonard Top-Five @ 55.054/1 & Top-Ten @ 17.5n/a
In-Running Bet:
Tiger Woods @ 6.611/2
I'll be back tomorrow afternoon after round three in Qatar.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
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