The WM Phoenix Open: Golden Graham's time to shine, says The Punter

Graham DeLaet, can his putter switch result in a win

It's the toughest event of the year so far, according to Steve, but he's still rooted-out five from the off at the WM Phoenix Open. Read his preview here...

Tournament History
First played in 1932, the WM Phoenix Open is one of the oldest events on the US PGA tour. This will be the 76th staging and if the strength of the field is anything to go by, we could be in for a cracker.

Venue
TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona

Course Details
Par 71, 7216 yards
Stroke Index in 2012 - 70.76

Best known for its barmy par three 16th hole, this stadium course was built specifically for this event and this year it hosts the event for the 26th time. It's a links style desert track with an exciting finish. The 15th is a reachable par 5 with water in play and the 17th is a drivable par 4 but also with water in play. Look out for low scores; there have been three rounds of 60 here, the last by Phil Mickelson in 2005.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Site
Course Details
Twitter Link
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days at 8.00pm, starting on Thursday

Last Five Winners
2012 - Kyle Stanley -15
2011 - Mark Wilson -18 (playoff)
2010 - Hunter Mahan -16
2009 - Kenny Perry -14 (playoff)
2008 - J.B Holmes -14 (playoff)

What will it take to win the WM Phoenix Open?
Look to the great iron players - Greens In Regulation has been the key stat of late, with the last four winners all ranking inside the top three for greens hit. It's all about getting on a roll and making lots of birdies.

In addition to the Greens In Regulation stats, check out Par 4 Performance. In the last 16 years, 10 winners have performed better on the par 4's than they did on the par 5's. In 2002, Chris DiMarco played the par 4's in 12 under par but was only two under on the par 5's.

Is there an identikit winner?
There have been a few two-time winners of late and a number of players have course form in abundance and seem to find improvement from somewhere when they pitch-up at Scottsdale but finding a specific type of winner is nigh on impossible. It's a tough event to find an angle in.

In-Play Tactics
In contrast to this week's other event, the Dubai Desert Classic (previewed here) where four of the last first round leaders have gone on to win, wire-to-wire winners are a rarity here. Nobody has managed the feat since Tom Lehman in 2000, and only two halfway leaders have won in the last dozen renewals.

Being in front with a round to go hasn't helped either of late. The last three third round leaders have all sunk without a trace (Spencer Levin was six clear twelve months ago!) and it seems you need to creep into the event and swoop late.

Holes 11 and 12 are really tough but I've noticed in past renewals that the in-play market didn't really reflect how tricky they were. If you're betting in-running, it may pay to let your selection get through the 12th before you strike.

Market Leaders
In an open looking event, Jason Dufner heads the market. He's warmed up nicely in the deserts of Abu Dhabi and Qatar over the last fortnight, led after day one here last year here and was beaten by Mark Wilson in a playoff twelve months earlier. With course and current form all in order, it's hard to pick a fault in him and he's a worthy favourite.

Brandt Snedeker did his 'Oh I'm leading, let's throw in a shocker' trick again last week at the Farmers Insurance Open and I don't like him as a betting proposition one iota, unless he's trailing. He led here with a round to go in 2010 before a shocking 78 did for his chances and given my doubts over his in-contention play and how very competitive the event is, of the market leaders, he makes least appeal.

I was all over Bubba Watson like a rash last week before he withdrew before the off. That was his second illness inside a month but if he's fit and raring to go, he could contend. I'm leaving him out from the off but I couldn't put anyone off.

Selections
This is the toughest event I've looked at so far this year, and by some distance. So many players have caught my attention and I could have easily backed a dozen or more but I'm not going to.

In addition to Bubba, I've reluctantly left out Phil Mickelson at a big price (just played too bad last week), Scott Piercy and Aaron Baddeley (too short in price) also came close to inclusion and Brain Gay and Russ Henley have the game to double-up here, but in the end, I'm playing just five outsiders before the off.

Jonas Blixt seems to have been forgotten about quite quickly and he looked a decent price at 120.0119/1. He ranked second behind Bubba Watson for Par 4 Performance last year and ranked third for putting at Torrey Pines last week.

Ben Crane has started the season poorly but that could all change at a venue he loves. He was 4th in 2008 and only Stanley finished in front of him last year. He's a multiple PGA Tour winner and he was too big at 150.0149/1.

Charley Hoffman has caught my eye over the first few weeks of the year and I felt he was worth a small investment. He was runner-up here in 2009, losing narrowly to Kenny Penny in a playoff.

Mark Wilson's win in this event two years ago was a painful result (one of many here!). I'd backed him at a monster price twelve months earlier and I'd gotten quite excited when he led at halfway but he capitulated over the weekend in 2010 and finished up tied 14th. He's been starting slowly in his events so far this year but if he can get out of the gates a bit quicker this week, he'll be a live contender.

And finally, last but not least. I've made no secret of my admiration of Canadian big-hitter Graham DeLaet and I can't be accused of lacking commitment where he's concerned but he could be on the verge of something special. His all-round stats have been impressive, with the exception of putting, but that all changed last week.

So miffed was he with his belly putter that he changed to a short putter midway through the Humana Challenge, and it worked. He stuck with the shorter one last week and he improved his position in the putting stats from 81st at the Humana to 12th at Torrey Pines, where he bagged himself a top-10 finish. Could this be the week for Graham?

WM Phoenix Open Selections:
Jonas Blixt @ 120.0119/1
Ben Crane @ 150.0149/1
Charley Hoffman @ 150.0149/1
Mark Wilson @ 170.0169/1
Graham DeLaet @ 190.0189/1

I'll be back on Thursday with the In-Play Blog

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter