In-Running Week: Has the Tidal really turned?

Neil still thinks you should be looking to back Tidal Bay In-Play

Neil Munro returns to offer his thoughts and advice regarding some in-running opportunities...

Welcome to 2013 and may I wish each and every one of you a prosperous and successful year of in-running trading. I will continue to try and find you some horses to trade on over the year and look at some of the main stories of the week and pick the bones out of it. Similar to what I did with the carcass of the turkey at Christmas.

I can start with only one race from the Christmas period and that is the Lexus. If you haven't seen the race try and watch it and stop the video as the front five come into the home straight with one to jump. Leopardstown does not have a very long run-in so I can fully understand why Flemenstar would have been trading very short, despite the worry about the trip.

Flemenstar had all his opponents off the bridle but what happened next was just so exciting to watch. First Lieutenant challenged and looked to have the race won and then Tidal Bay did what he has done for a long time: He turned it on very late and was delivered right on the line for a wonderful 14th career win.

So what can we take out of the race? 

Tidal Bay

Well, I have marked Tidal Bay up previously on this service and although Timeform have taken away his squiggle he is still a horse that you should play in the run. Bet him prior to the race if you fancy him but for me I just always try to back him high and lay him low in the run.

Back Tidal Bay at double the BSP in the run and put up an offer to lay out at around the BSP in the run and sit back and see what happens.

Flemenstar

Most people know the story behind Flemenstar and his trainer Peter Casey but from an in-running point of view he is just a very smooth travelling sort who will always catch the eye of an in-running backer. For many of his runs he has been a prohibitive price to trade on but for his future targets, with the slight question mark over the three mile trip, he will be well worth a back to lay trade for the rest of the season.

Back Flemenstar pre-race at BSP and then lay at around the matched price in the run for a green book.

There are a couple of other horses to add to your lists for the rest of the National Hunt season.

Fine Parchment

Charlie Mann's ten-year-old is an interesting horse who has been on my database for a number of years as a good-travelling horse in mid-division who has found a little less than expected. But for Fine Parchment's last two runs connections have put him out at the front and let him bowl along and dictate. Unfortunately he has still failed to find as much as you would think and indeed traded at the magical 1.01 last time out.

For the rest of this season back Fine Parchment pre-race and then lay out your stake at the matched price with a further offer at lower odds.

Ballywatt

Kim Bailey's seven-year-old is new to the list and I hope that I am not crabbing this horse too early but he does seem to have a lot of low trades on his in-running CV and can be one-paced in a finish. Kim on his excellent blog (have a regular read if you get a chance) has clearly indicated that he thinks he has just been beaten fair and square but I have to go by the stats and what I see. It is interesting also to note that Ballywatt had a large number of seconds on the point-to-point circuit.

Back Ballywatt pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at the matched price with a further odds-on offer to lay out to have the field winning for you.

Something for the weekend

We have the re-scheduled running of the Welsh National on Wednesday and Master Overseer could be an interesting addition to the race. He tends to be delivered late and because of this has traded at double his BSP in the run on three of his five wins. Giles Cross is one of the more likely pace candidates if he makes his seasonal reappearance there and loves the cut in the ground that is likely.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.